General Discussion

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)

23. The OP is MISLEADING

Mon Nov 24, 2014, 11:01 AM

Nov 2014

Want something to chew on??
Consider how flimsy the poll sampling appears to be.

PLEASE READ THE SURVEY RESULTS
http://www.businessweek.com/pdfs/bloomberg-saint-anselm-purple-NH-survey-Q1-to-Q9-11-2014.pdf

Yes, Hillary does have a lead AMONG 989,
people surveyed with a margin of error (MoE) of 4.9%.
"if" the election was held today.

The Margin of Error is 4.9%
Is a margin of error of of 4.9% statistically significant?
Are these result repeatable?
WE need to get educated about stats and polls going into 2016!

The poll is questionable for a many more reasons...
What are the age demographics?
What are the race demographics?
What is the economic Demographic?
What is the level of education of the demographic?
How were respondents sampled, random, haphazard?

Hillary's favorable/unfavorable 51/45 are comparable to...
Mitt Romney!? 47/48
Kelly Ayotte 47/27
With a MoE of 4.9% Hillary has as much statistical "support"
in the general election as Mittens and Ayotte!
Ayotte has a MUCH lower UNFAVORABLE.
Chew on that!

According to the Survey (question 6) if the 2016 election
were held today Hillary is in a dead heat with Mitt Romney!
46% Hillary and 45% Romney!
AND
IS beatable by Rand Paul (question 8) with 4.9% MoE.
Hillary 48% Rand 41%
So Romney or Rand could beat Hillary!

On question 9, asking about which party "likely Voters"
trust on issues of governing, REPUBLICANS WIN
on 4 out of 5 questions!

Overall, New Hampshire PREFERS REPUBLICAN candidates.
Chew on that!

How about we stop cherry picking
statistically insignificant poll results
in lame attempts at cheer leading, 'mkay?

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Hillary Clinton Leads in New Hampshire by Historic Margin [View all] wyldwolf Nov 2014 OP

New Hampshire Is Not The Nation cantbeserious Nov 2014 #1

Neither is Vermont. brooklynite Nov 2014 #4

Neither was Illiniois. Neither is any state that elects a Governor or US Senator. And? merrily Nov 2014 #8

Funny you should mention that Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2014 #25

Absolutely right; and the primary is not the general election. razorman Nov 2014 #56

She won on name recognition in an imaginary race. Let's not even bother w primaries!! ~nt RiverLover Nov 2014 #2

"She won on name recognition..." Nuclear Unicorn Nov 2014 #3

President Hillary Clinton will be carved on Mt. Rushmore! MannyGoldstein Nov 2014 #5

She will be a bust, merrily Nov 2014 #7

Objectification of women is NOT appreciated here MannyGoldstein Nov 2014 #69

Those high numbers apparently don't predict electability. Voice for Peace Nov 2014 #11

History Robbins Nov 2014 #12

And Tsongas beat Clinton nt MannyGoldstein Nov 2014 #13

There's a name I have not seen in print in too long a time. Octafish Nov 2014 #84

Paul's wife Nikki is in Congress MannyGoldstein Nov 2014 #89

LOL! Segami Nov 2014 #21

It should be noted that Gore did win dsc Nov 2014 #22

... LittleBlue Nov 2014 #63

Polls this far out are useless. For example, Hillary's numbers are lower than they were a year ago. merrily Nov 2014 #6

Science of polls aspirant Nov 2014 #43

This far out, polls are pure bullshit. More an attempt to shape public opinion than to measure it. merrily Nov 2014 #51

Shaping is no more than propaganda aspirant Nov 2014 #66

Corporate polling!!! Trying to shove a non alternative against JEB! TheNutcracker Nov 2014 #47

Jeb is polling considerably lower than Romney. merrily Nov 2014 #48

JEB is going to be the nominee TheNutcracker Nov 2014 #61

Chew on? BeyondGeography Nov 2014 #9

She can save a billion dollars by winning w/out ever campaigning NightWatcher Nov 2014 #10

That doesn't seem to be the best club to be in. Renew Deal Nov 2014 #14

We'll see what happens TBF Nov 2014 #15

The 1% has succesfully nominated her in the MSM primaries. Zorra Nov 2014 #16

Which doesn't mean diddly squat for another 15 months. hobbit709 Nov 2014 #17

And the 1% will have 8 more years of growth and protection davidn3600 Nov 2014 #18

Somebody please explain to me how the DLC has anything whatsoever to do with this Gman Nov 2014 #19

The DLC disbanded in 2011 Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2014 #26

Agree re DLC, disagree re Warren and Sanders. Jim Lane Nov 2014 #101

Democratic Socialist aspirant Nov 2014 #102

The "Socialist" label might be more damaging because it's true. Jim Lane Nov 2014 #103

He's labeled himself as a Democratic Socialist not a communist aspirant Nov 2014 #104

Please don't get so defensive. I'd love to see Sanders elected, but I don't ignore the obstacles. Jim Lane Nov 2014 #108

Opinions are just opinions aspirant Nov 2014 #109

My opinions aren't just opinions. They're actual wild guesses. Jim Lane Nov 2014 #110

Nice try, wild guesses are statistically correct. aspirant Nov 2014 #111

LOL: "Clinton runs nearly even with Romney in a head-to-head match-up" (para 4) Proud Public Servant Nov 2014 #20

The OP is MISLEADING Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #23

Go Cosmic Kitten! Excellent post! ~nt RiverLover Nov 2014 #24

And not leading "in the primary," since she's not running and there is no primary. Orsino Nov 2014 #27

Bada Bing! LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #34

Would you risk your life on a poll? aspirant Nov 2014 #44

Certainly not a poll of 404 Democratic primary voters! Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #67

Follow-up aspirant Nov 2014 #70

That's the right idea. Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #71

Continuing follow-up aspirant Nov 2014 #72

When does the time come when we flush all these polls down the toilet? Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #86

Let's revist these fredamae Nov 2014 #28

More facts for the weary to chew over and over. Bring on the candidates, the real choices will be Thinkingabout Nov 2014 #29

It's over a year before the NH primary. Stop this Inevitability shit. Odin2005 Nov 2014 #30

Is The Primary Tomorrow? Liberal_Dog Nov 2014 #31

Will that increase her market value with Goldman Sachs? Tierra_y_Libertad Nov 2014 #32

She running yet? Anyone else running yet? Autumn Nov 2014 #33

You noticed that too? DFW Nov 2014 #38

This message was self-deleted by its author jwirr Nov 2014 #52

Ridiculous. She must state her positions, and in detail--IF SHE DECLARES DFW Nov 2014 #54

I looked back and see you deserve an apology. I think I answered the wrong post. Very sorry. Will jwirr Nov 2014 #64

OK, Thanks for the rectification. DFW Nov 2014 #87

Thank you. jwirr Nov 2014 #88

I think the point is to have us all buy in to "no primaries". djean111 Nov 2014 #35

Big Nope. The more of these useless polls and graphs seen LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #37

She's not my favorite candidate, but some of the disrespect shown to her Ykcutnek Nov 2014 #36

It does NOT speak about the character of "critics" Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #40

I don't feel the need to defend my position. Ykcutnek Nov 2014 #42

You conflate "demonizing" with criticism. Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #45

OK, thanks for sharing. nt Ykcutnek Nov 2014 #46

So anyone in public office can do anything & its ok with you because they are sacrificing to be RiverLover Nov 2014 #53

No, but a woman responsible for me having medical insurance as a child can. Ykcutnek Nov 2014 #55

She is no liberal. merrily Nov 2014 #50

Public service that pays a whole lot of money! LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #57

I'd prefer Warren, but I won't demonize the Clintons to get her. Ykcutnek Nov 2014 #59

Alright, but that list is pretty damning and I think worth reminding folks. LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #60

It's not "demonic". Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #68

After the 2008 primaries, she should be persona non grata in Democratic circles. ieoeja Nov 2014 #74

And we need someone decent at the helm. LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #77

Not to mention Robbins Nov 2014 #78

Unfortunately, there are plenty of these types of leftovers from 2008: LawDeeDah Nov 2014 #105

Are these the same people aspirant Nov 2014 #106

I completely agree with that sentiment. AtomicKitten Nov 2014 #112

That is the ONLY poster I have on ignore. ieoeja Nov 2014 #114

K&R stonecutter357 Nov 2014 #39

Are you applauding Hillary being in a dead heat with republicans? Cosmic Kitten Nov 2014 #41

She leads in NH Democratic primary. Okay who was she running against? I does not say. jwirr Nov 2014 #49

I find it hard to get excited about her LordGlenconner Nov 2014 #58

Yours is a majority statement. We need an alternative that both sides will want over Bush/Clinton TheNutcracker Nov 2014 #62

Did you actually read the link! A bad sign in there as well... TheNutcracker Nov 2014 #65

That's nice. But, I still won't vote fore her. Tierra_y_Libertad Nov 2014 #73

If she's the candidate, how many will simply fail to show up? closeupready Nov 2014 #75

If people fail to show up, they voted for Jeb by default. Agnosticsherbet Nov 2014 #76

And that's the problem with her - she doesn't MOTIVATE. Consider, closeupready Nov 2014 #79

Your absoletly right Robbins Nov 2014 #80

The next President will likely nominate replacements for the two oldest members of the Supreme Court Agnosticsherbet Nov 2014 #81

You are not persuasive that Hillary will motivate independents to vote. closeupready Nov 2014 #83

If they don't vote they are conservatives who want Jeb Bush Agnosticsherbet Nov 2014 #85

Good then let's all unite for President Bernie and vote aspirant Nov 2014 #94

If he changes parties and runs in the Primary, I intend to suport him. Agnosticsherbet Nov 2014 #100

Clinton owns a year? Caretha Nov 2014 #115

Other than some grumpy people here, where is there a sign that Democrats won't vote for Hillary? brooklynite Nov 2014 #91

Um, every Democratic candidate who lost after being endorsed closeupready Nov 2014 #92

And you think the average Democratic voter will remember that? brooklynite Nov 2014 #93

Will they remember their Democrats? aspirant Nov 2014 #95

I can see critical thinking is not your strong point. closeupready Nov 2014 #99

So the strategy is: hope voters are forgetful. Union Scribe Nov 2014 #113

Polls close in 15 Hari Seldon Nov 2014 #82

Can we vote early and often until we get purged? aspirant Nov 2014 #96

Early but a good sign. hrmjustin Nov 2014 #90

This could be good or bad news. maced666 Nov 2014 #97

Or this could be no news, since polls are worthless aspirant Nov 2014 #98

Funny how they mention Ted Kennedy in 1980 Reter Nov 2014 #107