General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Why would the President support letting big banks back into the derivatives business ?? [View all]KingCharlemagne
(7,908 posts)before the Nov. 2014 mid-terms.
We know that Repubs suffered no consequences in Nov. 2014 from the Oct 2013 shut-down.
We know furthermore that polling showed the October 2013 shut-down was highly unpopular and almost universally ascribed to the Repbulicans.
We know finally that the Republicans face a daunting Senate campaign map in 2016. (Don't remember the numbers right off-hand, but Repubs will be trying to defend a large number of 2010 wins in states that are blue or purple and that went for Obama in 2012, whereas Dems already had their analogous blood-letting in 2014.)
That's it as to 'data'. The rest is inference. A shut-down 11-12 months before the Nov. 2016 General Election (and immediately precedent to the 2016 primary season) would carry the real risk that voters would remember and hold the Republicans responsible, since political life tends to heat up and engender far wider interest\turn-out in presidentail years.
Good on you to ask for data. Alas, I'm not a political scientist nor a sociologist by training, so have no data. I take it from your post that you disagree with my inferences, so look forward to hearing your take.