I know it's 6 months until the election but ...

[lacrew]

29. Nevada would qualify

My methodology: It may have gone blue in 2008, but Bush was able to seal the deal there twice...and honestly, if Bush was able to win a state in 2004, it blows my mind to think that the GOP could field a worse candidate, and lose that same state (again, unless your name is McCain-Palin). I understand Obama has a large lead there right now...but the race has just begun.

The once were reds, which went Blue in '08...and I expect to go red again are:

CO, NV, OH, VA, NC, FL, IN

What I view as 'swing states' are NM, NH, IA

Again, I acknowledge that all but 2 of these are currently leaning Obama.....but I don't think the polls are meaningful, until after the conventions.

By my math, that puts Romney ahead, without the swing states...and Obama needs to get those swing states, plus find 12 more electoral votes. NV has 6, but won't get him there. I'm sure he's got an eye on Florida and Ohio (based on the number of events he has already had in these states). Either one of those would allow him to win, even if he lost 2 of the 3 swing states.

He is up in Florida and Ohio...and he could prove me wrong and walk away with it...

...but I just don't buy into any of this 'landslide' talk.

In 2008, there was a very strong anti-Bush sentiment, which spilled over to McCain, Obama was a 'new' face on the national stage, as far as most people were concerned, and McCain ran a combo of his very old face, alongside a very unknown face in Palin. Unless Romney turns out to have the campaign instincts of Bob Dole, this has to be a closer race than last time...and if the GOP primary is any indication, Romney does not hesitate to go negative and nasty, early and often.