it's going to be Hillary vs Jeb

[Algernon Moncrieff]

15. They like Jeb for three reasons

1) He's seen as a sure thing to deliver Florida; 2) He's seen as a Republican who can successfully reach out to the Latino community (he speaks fluent Spanish and his wife, Columba, is Mexican); 3) A Jeb candidacy plays to a larger narrative of rehabilitating the George W. Bush legacy.

Republicans are going to run arguing that the rise of ISIS/ISIL proves that Bush/Cheney was right about Iraq, and that the Obama administration has proven -- through the Gitmo releases and the release of the Torture Report -- that they are soft on Islamic terror.

Jeb's running mate will be Susana Martinez, Chris Christie, or Rob Portman (longshot: Condi Rice). The Republicans recognize that 2016 will be largely about the Latino vote and swing states.

You wrote about the , "..canyon that exists between the Democratic party, and the voting base of the Democratic party." The same is obviously true on the Republican side, and the problem they face is coming up with anyone who is perceived as moderate enough by the 35% +/- of independent GE voters, but conservative enough not to create a Tea Party or Libertarian wing walkaway.