General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Time to end sanctions against Russia, says French President. [View all]DetlefK
(16,670 posts)I guess, Putin is having a simple problem:
First, he whipped up the ukrainian rebels to secede.
Secession doesn't come quick enough to make facts on the ground, problems ensue.
So Putin tries to scale his demands down from secession to keeping NATO away, but that doesn't work either:
- He cannot do it publicly or it will be seen as capitulation.
- He cannot negotiate with Ukraine on an open basis after demonifying them as Nazis and mass-murderers.
- He has to talk the ukrainian rebels out of secession and they don't want to stop. He cannot withdraw his support for the ukrainian rebels or they might take revenge on him and e.g. spill the beans.
Russia could end this within a week:
- End all military support for the rebels. Invite international observers.
- Ukraine keeps Eastern Ukraine but gets a federal structure for more local government to prevent discrimination of Russians.
- Ukraine stays out of NATO for 20 years.
But if Putin offers such a peace-roadmap, it might be seen as capitulation and he personally can't have that.