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RiverLover

(7,830 posts)

207. Thank you, DanTex!!!

Tue Jan 6, 2015, 07:38 PM

Jan 2015

Although the trade deficit is real, and its THE indicator of off-shored jobs.

And the TPP will increase that #, unless we can somehow stop it.

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Why I defend NAFTA on DU, in four charts [View all] Recursion Jan 2015 OP

"U.S. Economy Lost Nearly 700,000 Jobs Because Of NAFTA, EPI Says" MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #1

In a period during which *20 million* jobs were created, Manny Recursion Jan 2015 #3

OK then. We'll go with correlation = causality MannyGoldstein Jan 2015 #16

Well, that actually has a causative argument Recursion Jan 2015 #19

You just read Manny's graph upside down. Jackpine Radical Jan 2015 #101

I did, because I was thinking of a different graph Recursion Jan 2015 #103

I thought that would probably be the case. Jackpine Radical Jan 2015 #107

It does, and climate change will only increase that Recursion Jan 2015 #108

All of that is true. Jackpine Radical Jan 2015 #118

It is about causation versus correlation. DanTex Jan 2015 #167

Recursion: Overall SCantiGOP Jan 2015 #193

20 million jobs, most of which don't pay a living wage. hobbit709 Jan 2015 #252

No, see the chart. Nonsupervisory wages went up, as did median income (nt) Recursion Jan 2015 #257

That is less than half the population growth. lumberjack_jeff Jan 2015 #283

What? You aren't overly-impressed with a power-point oblique Rah-Rah for TPP? nt 99th_Monkey Jan 2015 #5

I'm "meh" on the TPP because I think we've already picked the low-hanging fruit there Recursion Jan 2015 #10

You can "Meh" on TPP all you want 99th_Monkey Jan 2015 #15

Well, no, only in some imaginary polemic land Recursion Jan 2015 #17

I think this is where we agree to disagree 99th_Monkey Jan 2015 #18

Thank you; that's been rather missing from DU on this subject Recursion Jan 2015 #22

My 'crusade' can be your 'populist uprising' 99th_Monkey Jan 2015 #30

If we are doing something BLINDLY since no one but the 600 Corporations have been sabrina 1 Jan 2015 #29

Job Loses on both sides of the border FreakinDJ Jan 2015 #28

Unrec tenderfoot Jan 2015 #2

Care to present an argument? Are my data wrong? Recursion Jan 2015 #4

for one thing, the median is not a "typical" income hfojvt Jan 2015 #49

Please consider this observation to counter this utter bullshit on NAFTA... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #123

So, am I wrong that unemployment went down, while median wages went up? (nt) Recursion Jan 2015 #124

(sigh�) MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #129

You are wrong that NAFTA's impact on the economy terminated in 2000. lumberjack_jeff Jan 2015 #284

"flurrying your fingers from across the world?" = from india no less. NewDeal_Dem Jan 2015 #163

Third Way needed to cur some costs, chose to outsource LondonReign2 Jan 2015 #181

"We had already been loosing the manufacturing industries by then late 1980's. NAFTA and GATT pampango Jan 2015 #168

You see? Really, now? MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #169

"We have actually been losing manufacturing jobs since the since the late 1970's" NewDeal_Dem Jan 2015 #212

Outsourcing and automation. joshcryer Jan 2015 #236

I'm not sure what you mean by 'appear to' peak. These are BLS statistics, so I guess it -did- NewDeal_Dem Jan 2015 #237

Fair enough. joshcryer Jan 2015 #239

Reagan also intensified the deregulation. NewDeal_Dem Jan 2015 #240

Reagan who? reddread Jan 2015 #287

Reagan expanded the Carter administration's efforts to decontrol and deregulate the economy. NewDeal_Dem Jan 2015 #289

GHWB reddread Jan 2015 #292

They are not your data. JackRiddler Jan 2015 #185

What of manufacturing? joshcryer Jan 2015 #6

I don't think manufacturing is magical, anymore than agriculture is Recursion Jan 2015 #8

That's absolutely true. joshcryer Jan 2015 #12

"Diversified" in inputs or outputs? Because as you point out most of the inputs are going away Recursion Jan 2015 #14

That pie chart is somewhat different from my graph. joshcryer Jan 2015 #20

I noticed that about your chart which is why I looked for mine Recursion Jan 2015 #26

I'm surprised the "information" sector hasnt increased more. Warren DeMontague Jan 2015 #27

That is surprising Recursion Jan 2015 #43

If not, you can just make it up. HERVEPA Jan 2015 #130

Having a service-centered economy is a horrible thing. JDPriestly Jan 2015 #54

The trade deficit is a symptom of our consumer society. joshcryer Jan 2015 #57

Germany makes labor a legal stakeholder of businesses Recursion Jan 2015 #69

Many sectors were not consumer driven 4Q2u2 Jan 2015 #151

I have to correct something in your post. JDPriestly Jan 2015 #227

VAT affects consumers, not companies. joshcryer Jan 2015 #228

The VAT works very well in Germany and Austria. They fund all sorts of socially positive programs JDPriestly Jan 2015 #230

I'm all for it. joshcryer Jan 2015 #231

One of the reasons I oppose the trade agreements is that we have no strategy here in America JDPriestly Jan 2015 #232

This is why a progressive tax schedule should be first. joshcryer Jan 2015 #234

If somebody wants to sponsor a Federal VAT in the US I'm on board Recursion Jan 2015 #229

there's no surplus value in robots. also, the corporate tax rate in germany is about 30%. NewDeal_Dem Jan 2015 #290

Why do we a trade deficit while Germany with stronger unions and similar wages has a trade surplus? pampango Jan 2015 #67

You keep reducing left-wing opposition to the TPP to trade. stillwaiting Jan 2015 #81

I was responding to a post about our "our horrible, horrendous, awful, spectacularly outrageous pampango Jan 2015 #145

�"And our manufacturing is at record high levels�" MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #137

�"And our manufacturing is at record high levels�" pampango Jan 2015 #154

What a great disguise� a federal reserve macro data set MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #162

Where are you getting that randomness? joshcryer Jan 2015 #235

I didn't think I had to tell anyone this... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #241

You were responding to a specific dataset. joshcryer Jan 2015 #242

Yes, I did... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #243

I linked how the dataset is compiled. joshcryer Jan 2015 #244

You never read it that fast, or you'd have something to say... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #245

It's a couple of paragraphs: joshcryer Jan 2015 #246

Jeebus H Christ... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #247

You responded to post #168. joshcryer Jan 2015 #254

Yes, you're right, I responded to post #168... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #288

Funny you asked. I happen to know a lot about this. JDPriestly Jan 2015 #208

Thanks for the long, detailed post. pampango Jan 2015 #248

I would like to think we could learn, but the basic philosophy of so many in our country is JDPriestly Jan 2015 #280

Great post JDPriestly! B Calm Jan 2015 #249

I think when you look at things from a macro view upaloopa Jan 2015 #89

Manufacturing -is- magical, and it's because of manufacturing that we employ fewer farmhands today. NewDeal_Dem Jan 2015 #214

Thanks. That's the real story. JDPriestly Jan 2015 #52

I pretty much agree, and there is a lot to be said for a tight asscociation Hoyt Jan 2015 #7

Our very large corporations, banks and farming enterprises need to be broken up. JDPriestly Jan 2015 #55

Did you know breaking them up increases their value? joshcryer Jan 2015 #60

But their worth has nothing to do with destructive ability 4Q2u2 Jan 2015 #106

Then we have to do it, it is good for business! TheKentuckian Jan 2015 #128

NAFTA was/is the TPP-Camel's Nose Under the Tent. 99th_Monkey Jan 2015 #9

Are each of these charts a direct result of NAFTA? How can we tell? arcane1 Jan 2015 #11

Of course not Recursion Jan 2015 #13

If the charts are not directly related to NAFTA, then why use these charts to defend it? arcane1 Jan 2015 #157

Charts on wages, employment and family income are not relevant to debate on NAFTA? pampango Jan 2015 #170

Relevance is a different story. The OP said these charts are not directly related to NAFTA. arcane1 Jan 2015 #173

Indeed, they are only reflective of the wages, employment levels and family incomes after NAFTA. pampango Jan 2015 #175

NAFTA would have worked a lot better if we had not simultaneously pushed MFN status for China Algernon Moncrieff Jan 2015 #21

That's a very, very good point Recursion Jan 2015 #23

Holy fucking shit, man. Warren DeMontague Jan 2015 #24

Not really, Warren... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #132

I had no idea that was my purpose. Glad to hear it. Recursion Jan 2015 #146

"what does this flame-like icon gain me?" MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #148

No, I think he's cogently advancing an obviously unpopular argument Warren DeMontague Jan 2015 #219

... Cali_Democrat Jan 2015 #25

Correlation versus Causation tkmorris Jan 2015 #31

Lack of correlation proves causation is impossible Recursion Jan 2015 #36

Actually that's not true Depaysement Jan 2015 #53

Two extreme bubbles occured during this period. bluesbassman Jan 2015 #32

But, equally, claiming NAFTA was destructive is ruled out. Recursion Jan 2015 #35

So if NAFTA's destructive tendencies and it's positive contributions cancel each other out... bluesbassman Jan 2015 #50

No. One effect can be masked by another. jeff47 Jan 2015 #155

During the Clinton Presidency, House of Roberts Jan 2015 #40

Excellent point. It was the internet bubble which delayed the effects of NAFTA still_one Jan 2015 #131

So the technology boom caused manufacturing jobs and wages to increase during Clinton's time. pampango Jan 2015 #201

The giant sucking sound - manufacturing jobs JonLP24 Jan 2015 #33

David Simon talks a lot about free trade and its effect on the economy here JonLP24 Jan 2015 #61

David Simon is also puzzingly convinced that the War on Drugs isn't a racial issue Recursion Jan 2015 #88

In the video he describes it as 'war on the poor' but he also says this JonLP24 Jan 2015 #211

Those graphs show correlation, not causation. Ken Burch Jan 2015 #34

Right, but they prove it's impossible that NAFTA caused either job losses or wage decreases Recursion Jan 2015 #37

Most of that has little to do with NAFTA Spider Jerusalem Jan 2015 #38

NAFTA has been a disaster for Mexico, and PRI paid the price for that Recursion Jan 2015 #41

Way to miss the point, or not even be aware of it. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2015 #44

Completely wrong Recursion Jan 2015 #45

You mean "fewer", and I'm not talking about the last 60 years, I'm talking about the last 20. Spider Jerusalem Jan 2015 #47

Well, no. Factories had the option of automating or moving to Mexico and then to China Recursion Jan 2015 #48

I hope DU eventually gets tired Union Scribe Jan 2015 #39

This message was self-deleted by its author 1000words Jan 2015 #42

Thanks. LeftOfWest Jan 2015 #56

If it's any indication... Waiting For Everyman Jan 2015 #58

Sounds about right. joshcryer Jan 2015 #59

Hmm. Waiting For Everyman Jan 2015 #63

Oh, right, alter ego DUers are immune. joshcryer Jan 2015 #96

I remember those days of DU too Recursion Jan 2015 #105

Thank you! There's a definite posting pattern. Lars39 Jan 2015 #62

Yup. And he states openly he doesn't care about inequality. There we go. closeupready Jan 2015 #72

You would rather a more equal, poorer world? Recursion Jan 2015 #73

lol you're not very good at this. closeupready Jan 2015 #75

I'd prefer everyone to be RICHER, actually. HughBeaumont Jan 2015 #126

That's massively increasing their living standards from what they were, don't forget that part. Donald Ian Rankin Jan 2015 #178

The bottom 75% did get richer. Is that worth nothing to a liberal? Or is it, "If I'm not richer, pampango Jan 2015 #196

What you don't seem to be getting . . . . HughBeaumont Jan 2015 #263

AFAIK, for people to go from $1/hour to $15/hour they have to go through $2/hr, $5/hr and so on. pampango Jan 2015 #286

With the current system, ronnie624 Jan 2015 #160

Isn't this the kind of thing anarcho-capitalists say?? HughBeaumont Jan 2015 #165

No kidding. Puglover Jan 2015 #97

+1 bahrbearian Jan 2015 #99

I'M Tired of it. HughBeaumont Jan 2015 #127

I know I am... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #134

Yet you have made zero argument treestar Jan 2015 #141

Yes! tenderfoot Jan 2015 #149

I hope DU gets tired of calling Recursion a right-winger, when they're obviously not. Donald Ian Rankin Jan 2015 #177

.... tenderfoot Jan 2015 #187

Don't you just hate charts? And people who don't agree you about everything? n/t pampango Jan 2015 #197

Recursion is more than one person? Gormy Cuss Jan 2015 #204

No, that's a third-person-singular use of "they". Donald Ian Rankin Jan 2015 #205

"They" isn't a singular pronoun, thus the confusion. n/t Gormy Cuss Jan 2015 #294

Before trying to grammar pedant, make sure you understand basic grammar. Donald Ian Rankin Jan 2015 #295

One should probably read the link before asserting that it proves one's case. n/t Gormy Cuss Jan 2015 #296

Ayup LondonReign2 Jan 2015 #184

Relentless Libertarian push. Ikonoklast Jan 2015 #275

Yes, you're description is more accurate LondonReign2 Jan 2015 #276

Quote from the OP in a pst above. Ikonoklast Jan 2015 #277

K&R for making a brave argument, with data bhikkhu Jan 2015 #46

I strongly disagree that TPP is "no big deal" Art_from_Ark Jan 2015 #51

But it lets Japan expand its agriculture tariffs Recursion Jan 2015 #64

The National Alliance for Protecting the People's Food and Health is not impressed Art_from_Ark Jan 2015 #250

Krugman�s over-confident answers to his own questions proved to be mostly wrong... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #142

Interesting article, but it assumes that its readers agree on some underlying assumptions bhikkhu Jan 2015 #218

You forgot: Manufacturing employment grew after NAFTA until Bush; Democrats are more pro-trade than pampango Jan 2015 #65

I had to look who recommended this thread, B Calm Jan 2015 #66

So when a really good position is presented on something few know much about look at the recs to kelliekat44 Jan 2015 #68

There has never been a good position for NAFTA from the view B Calm Jan 2015 #70

Except for the fact that his wages and employment went up Recursion Jan 2015 #71

Can I ask you what you do for a living? Do you work an overseas job, B Calm Jan 2015 #74

He's admitted he used to be a K Street lobbyist among other things Lars39 Jan 2015 #76

No, I said I worked on K street Recursion Jan 2015 #78

Lol, yea right. Your resume expands daily. Lars39 Jan 2015 #83

Nope, it expands usually every two years Recursion Jan 2015 #84

every 2 years Caretha Jan 2015 #220

You don't work in IT, do you? Recursion Jan 2015 #222

BTW, the food stamp farmer's market thing Recursion Jan 2015 #85

19 recs, 13 replies. joshcryer Jan 2015 #98

Yeah, funny how that works Recursion Jan 2015 #122

It's a distraction. joshcryer Jan 2015 #213

... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #174

I'm a UNIX admin Recursion Jan 2015 #77

You do live overseas, okay! B Calm Jan 2015 #79

So, umm... what's funny about that? I missed my grandfather's funeral because I was stationed here Recursion Jan 2015 #80

I'll leave that up to the working class on DU to get the comedy of it, I B Calm Jan 2015 #82

Stationed by the government? Caretha Jan 2015 #221

I'll have to wait for "a really good position" to be presented to answer that. MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #143

:-^) MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #135

Yes, thanks. I did so after reading this post. Mostly the usual suspects. closeupready Jan 2015 #138

Hmmm...whom to believe, your RW corporate charts or our own eyes? RiverLover Jan 2015 #86

He's right. We really need to stop fighting the last war. NAFTA delivered what was promised. Recursion Jan 2015 #87

My own eyes see the devastation in town after town. Lars39 Jan 2015 #90

Me too Lars39 RiverLover Jan 2015 #92

I see it in TN, Indiana, Kentucky also. Lars39 Jan 2015 #93

Thanks to NAFTA, Indiana lost it last remaining bio degradable cellophane factory B Calm Jan 2015 #100

And I bet the greedy owners blamed the union for wanting more money. Lars39 Jan 2015 #104

YES, after two different wage concessions, benefit cuts and vacation B Calm Jan 2015 #109

Not to mention the tax breaks the company received over the years. Lars39 Jan 2015 #110

SPOT ON!! B Calm Jan 2015 #113

Those tax cuts were suppose to make them more competitive in the NAFTA marketplace, LOL. B Calm Jan 2015 #114

Yes! Glad you remember...seems like all this is being shoved down the rabbit hole. Lars39 Jan 2015 #121

Ohioan here . . . . HughBeaumont Jan 2015 #133

Amen. closeupready Jan 2015 #140

Add all the other states, united... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #147

I saw the same thing, now it's all Autumn Jan 2015 #189

Or rickety tables for a permanent yard sale-flea market on an empty lot on Main Street... Lars39 Jan 2015 #198

It goes down and down. Autumn Jan 2015 #200

Sure does seem that way, Autumn. Lars39 Jan 2015 #202

In other words, rigorous statistical data or anecdotal evidence? N.T. Donald Ian Rankin Jan 2015 #179

Good job Caretha Jan 2015 #223

The Trade Deficit is a Direct Measure of Jobs Leaving the US RiverLover Jan 2015 #91

Correlation is not causation. TBF Jan 2015 #94

And 20 million jobs were created (nt) Recursion Jan 2015 #95

And 21 million would have been created without it. (nt) jeff47 Jan 2015 #115

Well, there we are. That's certainly possible Recursion Jan 2015 #116

That sounds like a republican complaint about a Democratic president. pampango Jan 2015 #203

It was an attempt to illustrate the faulty analysis in the OP. jeff47 Jan 2015 #210

And actually, this was a Republican President's deal originally RiverLover Jan 2015 #215

From what sectors and we do not know what we do not know 4Q2u2 Jan 2015 #136

They are trying to rewrite history TBF Jan 2015 #191

All I see from this entire post The2ndWheel Jan 2015 #102

I've always considered you to be a righty ... Trajan Jan 2015 #111

Me too. ~nt RiverLover Jan 2015 #112

lol Bobbie Jo Jan 2015 #293

+1 QC Jan 2015 #117

Like others here, he puts his mouth where his money is, probably. closeupready Jan 2015 #144

nor I. tenderfoot Jan 2015 #217

The dot com boom was not caused by NAFTA jeff47 Jan 2015 #119

So your vote is for "total coincidence"? (nt) Recursion Jan 2015 #120

No, my vote is for economies are not as simple as you pretend they are. jeff47 Jan 2015 #125

The median wage is not the "typical wage." It's the midpoint of all wages. Gormy Cuss Jan 2015 #139

I have to say this is a interesting thread ismnotwasm Jan 2015 #150

Remember when DU was, well, just kind of like that? Recursion Jan 2015 #153

Yeah ismnotwasm Jan 2015 #156

Agree completely, this has been worthwhile. eom chieftain Jan 2015 #209

Several of the posts have pointed out that rogerashton Jan 2015 #152

Actually, his argument is utterly lacking in nuance. jeff47 Jan 2015 #159

Perhaps we mean different things by the word "nuance." rogerashton Jan 2015 #176

Choosing only U3, median wage, and poverty is cherry-picking headline numbers jeff47 Jan 2015 #183

Because they're what's important: do people have jobs, and are those jobs making money for them? Recursion Jan 2015 #238

Not when you're claiming the headline is due to a trade deal. jeff47 Jan 2015 #259

That's not true at all Recursion Jan 2015 #260

You are not this dumb. Stop pretending to be. jeff47 Jan 2015 #265

WRT your final paragraph, NAFTA may have been a 'good idea,' but labor KingCharlemagne Jan 2015 #158

You see the data without understanding the implications RunInCircles Jan 2015 #161

Interesting description of AT&T... MrMickeysMom Jan 2015 #171

Nothing good comes from NAFTA Demsrule86 Jan 2015 #164

How much of that do you think is attributable to NAFTA, vs other things that happened at the time? DanTex Jan 2015 #166

If I had to guess, maybe a quarter or so Recursion Jan 2015 #226

Not really. DanTex Jan 2015 #258

For example, here's a shot at making the opposite case using charts. DanTex Jan 2015 #172

Thank you, DanTex!!! RiverLover Jan 2015 #207

Thanks everyone above who debunked this propaganda. Elwood P Dowd Jan 2015 #180

Indeed: The rebuttals turned a BS OP into a good thread Populist_Prole Jan 2015 #188

Yes. Bookmarking to use the info next time they cheerlead for Reaganomics Zorra Jan 2015 #190

And not only that - TBF Jan 2015 #194

Tell me, why the need to relentlessly push right wing points of view here? LondonReign2 Jan 2015 #182

*Sigh* Starry Messenger Jan 2015 #186

That word "liberal" - TBF Jan 2015 #192

Around here it seems to be kind of an inkblot. Starry Messenger Jan 2015 #195

Exactly. nt TBF Jan 2015 #199

What time is it over there in Mumbai India Recursion? You asleep? B Calm Jan 2015 #206

It was about 5:30 am when you posted that, why? (nt) Recursion Jan 2015 #216

I've decided Caretha Jan 2015 #224

Which of my four claims are false? Recursion Jan 2015 #225

And NAFTA didn't have a damn thing to do with any of your claims. Elwood P Dowd Jan 2015 #233

So Clinton was lucky and Bush was unlucky? pampango Jan 2015 #253

"continuously blaming them is a distraction" joshcryer Jan 2015 #255

Well said. "we'll never get into the necessary policy discussions as long as the MSM leads with pampango Jan 2015 #256

Nobody claims that the economic gains of the Clinton era are "proof" that NAFTA was a disaster. DanTex Jan 2015 #264

NAFTA did not 'destroy manufacturing jobs in the US' while Clinton was in office. Then pampango Jan 2015 #269

It's hard to tell exactly how much of the decline is due to NAFTA. DanTex Jan 2015 #270

Then why did both wages and incomes increase? Recursion Jan 2015 #271

Because there was a tech boom, for one. DanTex Jan 2015 #272

Some of the effects were actually pretty quick Recursion Jan 2015 #273

Modulo the tech boom none of those charts show anything. DanTex Jan 2015 #274

He's from Bombay, India, so he probably DOESN'T care about inequality - closeupready Jan 2015 #278

"Back home" is the US Recursion Jan 2015 #291

Your claim that those statistics are due to NAFTA are false. jeff47 Jan 2015 #261

You're reading a lot more causality into my argument than is there Recursion Jan 2015 #262

No, I'm not jeff47 Jan 2015 #266

What "lower overall wages"? Recursion Jan 2015 #267

Try actually reading all of the post. jeff47 Jan 2015 #268

"So, how much money will you make from the TPP passing?" closeupready Jan 2015 #281

Post hoc ergo propter hoc - n/t lapfog_1 Jan 2015 #251

You completely misinterpreted/misrepresented the first chart lumberjack_jeff Jan 2015 #279

yeah, but you forgot to yell "Timber!" reddread Jan 2015 #282

Initially I thought it might be advantageous mmonk Jan 2015 #285