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tclambert

(11,193 posts)

9. If a denier wants to do bad trend analysis by starting with 1998,

Reply to hatrack (Original post)

Thu Jan 22, 2015, 09:58 PM

Jan 2015

I say, "Wait, you used that argument last year. This year, shouldn't you start from 1999?" 1998 was an unusual fluctuation upward (due to a really strong El Niño). 1999 was a significant fluctuation downward. If you start your bad trend analysis from 1999, whoa, it looks like it's getting warmer really fast!

With real trend analysis, like the dashed red line in the graph above, you can see it has been steadily getting warmer the whole time. The interesting thing to me is the new record year, 2014, set the record by matching the trend exactly. The next time we see a big fluctuation above the trend line, it may shock the heck out of some people. Personally, I'm rooting for an El Niño. It looks like we're in the beginning of a weak one now.

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Highlight:

There Was No Global Warming "Pause", And Ocean Temps Are Literally Going Off The NOAA Charts [View all] hatrack Jan 2015 OP

...the bigger story got buried 2naSalit Jan 2015 #1

K&R 2naSalit Jan 2015 #2

Lies, lies and more lies, Fox told me so. You can trust Fox! I am not a scientist, I trust Fox to do my Fred Sanders Jan 2015 #3

There will be no stopping of Climate Change. Lust for money will make sure we go extinct first. Rex Jan 2015 #4

I agree. CrispyQ Jan 2015 #7

I have to agree with Rex Jan 2015 #16

"Like the Club, only no human gets to join." Oh Yeah..I LIKE that! BlueJazz Jan 2015 #27

Laissez faire capitalism's end game..... paleotn Jan 2015 #10

In the end, there can be only one. tclambert Jan 2015 #14

Or barrel of water, in all likelihood hatrack Jan 2015 #15

DURec. bvar22 Jan 2015 #5

K&R Hubert Flottz Jan 2015 #6

K&R for truth. nt Mnemosyne Jan 2015 #8

If a denier wants to do bad trend analysis by starting with 1998, tclambert Jan 2015 #9

Only scam artists and idiots cherry pick data points in trend analysis daleo Jan 2015 #11

A lot of people don't know that, though. Math innumeracy makes them easy targets tclambert Jan 2015 #13

Mark Twain beat you to it by fifty years or so mrdmk Jan 2015 #18

Technical note: I believe credit for the first iteration of this statement may belong to KingCharlemagne Jan 2015 #24

Math innumeracy is a cultural failing daleo Jan 2015 #19

Is it? My impression is a lot of people are hardwired wrong when it comes to statistics tclambert Jan 2015 #20

Probability can be difficult, and counterintuitive daleo Jan 2015 #21

there will be much suffering and gnashing of teeth nt hopemountain Jan 2015 #12

And a lot of garment rending too (especially as it gets warmer :) - nt KingCharlemagne Jan 2015 #25

and only tears will rain nt hopemountain Jan 2015 #26

We NEED to do "global dimming" NOW! oneview Jan 2015 #17

Purposely manipulating the weather is a dangerous idea, too daleo Jan 2015 #22

You're assuming we'd use the extra time to save ourselves NickB79 Jan 2015 #23

As usual for you, GREAT post, hatrack. Thanks nt Bigmack Jan 2015 #28