I hate that Boehner invited Netanyahu - but there's a silver lining

[branford]

28. I think it's wishful thinking on your part.

Bibi has already taken the political hit by accepting the congressional invitation. Not showing up would only make him look weak, without any political upsides.

While you might dislike Bibi, he is no political fool or novice. When he speaks to Congress (and AIPAC), he will express sentiments about Iran and Islamic terrorism that are very popular in the USA and with congressmen and senators of both parties. He will not personally insult Obama, and will speak glowingly of all American elected officials, as he has done on both prior occasions when he addressed a joint session and virtually all of the many other speeches he's given on American soil. The optics will be good for his election prospects in Israel, and it's the very reason why his political opponents in Israel who are complaining about his poor relationship with the president (an allegation made all other times before he was elected prime minister), are also actually trying to block the rebroadcast of the speech and press tour from Israeli audiences.

Obama is also not going to alter US policy on Israel because he dislikes Netanyahu, and Bibi knows this. This is hardly their first bitter public spat. Current American policy has strong bipartisan and congressional support. Moreover, while key Democratic constituencies who are responsible for a great deal of Democratic election financing and organization might have their misgivings about Bibi personally, any changes in policy concerning Israel would be met with astonishment, anger and substantive repercussions. Obama additionally need Congress to finance his broader Middle East policy, and retaliation against Israel itself would result in blow-back such as cutting-off funds to the Palestinians, Syrian rebels or various United Nations agencies.

Obama is also concerned about is own Iran policy. He's invested a lot in the negotiations. If they fail, or if the public believes we got a bad deal, he will lose significant political capital when he's already a lame duck. He's annoyed at Congress and Bibi because the visit raises the expectations on the already precarious Iran negotiations.