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In reply to the discussion: Krugman: 'We're Rapidly Approaching A Moment Of Truth' - NYT [View all]MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)51. HOW'D they REALLY get there? It's like the sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2007-2008...
This was posted on February 17, 2015 by Charles Hugh Smith from Max Keiser's Financial War Reports. I find it a good analogy
Sometimes the best way to summarize a complex situation is with an analogy. The Greek debt crisis, for example, is very much like the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-08.
As you might recall, service workers earning $25,000 annually got $500,000 mortgages to buy McMansions in subprimes go-go days. The applicant fudged a bit here and there on income and creditworthiness, and lenders reaping huge profits from originating and selling mortgages were delighted to ignore prudent underwriting standards and stamp low-risk on the mortgage because it was quickly sold to credulous investors.
The bank made its money in transaction and origination fees, and passed the risk of default on to investors who accepted the fraud that the loan was low-risk.
The loan was fundamentally imprudent and risky because the borrower was not qualified for a loan of such magnitude. But since the risk was distributed to others, the banks ignored the 100% probability of eventual default and skimmed the profits upfront.
Greece was the subprime borrower, and its membership in the euro gave the banks permission to enter the credit rating of Germany on Greeces loan application. Though anyone with the slightest knowledge of Greeces economy knew it did not qualify for loans of such magnitude, lenders were happy to offer the loans at interest rates close to those of Greeces northern neighbors, and then sell them as low-risk sovereign debt investments.
In effect, the banks were free-riding the magical-thinking belief that membership in the euro transformed risky borrowers into creditworthy borrowers.
Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/#6ZRdA8mhtzUpmcX5.99
As you might recall, service workers earning $25,000 annually got $500,000 mortgages to buy McMansions in subprimes go-go days. The applicant fudged a bit here and there on income and creditworthiness, and lenders reaping huge profits from originating and selling mortgages were delighted to ignore prudent underwriting standards and stamp low-risk on the mortgage because it was quickly sold to credulous investors.
The bank made its money in transaction and origination fees, and passed the risk of default on to investors who accepted the fraud that the loan was low-risk.
The loan was fundamentally imprudent and risky because the borrower was not qualified for a loan of such magnitude. But since the risk was distributed to others, the banks ignored the 100% probability of eventual default and skimmed the profits upfront.
Greece was the subprime borrower, and its membership in the euro gave the banks permission to enter the credit rating of Germany on Greeces loan application. Though anyone with the slightest knowledge of Greeces economy knew it did not qualify for loans of such magnitude, lenders were happy to offer the loans at interest rates close to those of Greeces northern neighbors, and then sell them as low-risk sovereign debt investments.
In effect, the banks were free-riding the magical-thinking belief that membership in the euro transformed risky borrowers into creditworthy borrowers.
Read more at http://www.maxkeiser.com/#6ZRdA8mhtzUpmcX5.99
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I thnk Greece will leave the EU. How the EU survives the economic fallout is not to be guessed.
Agnosticsherbet
Feb 2015
#1
Scotland had a recent secession vote that failed, but as a means of defusing such ideas,
closeupready
Feb 2015
#10
Srsly? You think Germany, as leader of the EU and the biggest proponent of austerity,
truebluegreen
Feb 2015
#27
The EU does not have a military. The inidividual nations do have militaries, but I don't think
Agnosticsherbet
Feb 2015
#45
They survivied before the EU existed. They could find away to suvive without it.
Agnosticsherbet
Feb 2015
#48
The Euro was a bad idea because they did not integrate their economic system.
Agnosticsherbet
Feb 2015
#58
....will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks.
Tierra_y_Libertad
Feb 2015
#11
HOW'D they REALLY get there? It's like the sub-prime mortgage crisis of 2007-2008...
MrMickeysMom
Feb 2015
#51
The euro was created precisely to bring about the mess we're seeing in Greece, Spain, etc.
nichomachus
Feb 2015
#18
I think nation states should control their own fiscal, economic and trade policies.
CJCRANE
Feb 2015
#23
I love it -- anything someone doesn't like to hear is a "Conspiracy Theory"
nichomachus
Feb 2015
#38
You may be interested in Professor Bill Black who has written on the subject in addition to your
Jefferson23
Feb 2015
#32