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DemocratSinceBirth

(101,847 posts)

86. I agree with the oddsmakers

Reply to Orsino (Reply #67)

Tue Feb 17, 2015, 01:37 PM

Feb 2015

All the evidence suggests that it's more likely than not she will win but it's by no means a sure thing.

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Think Hillary Clinton Is Likely To win? Think again. - NationalJounal [View all] WillyT Feb 2015 OP

A 50/50 race. Gee, what an insight! JaneyVee Feb 2015 #1

Silly post. Implyiny always 50-50 in a 2 person race. HERVEPA Feb 2015 #4

The Post Isn't Silly... The Math May Be... But That's Why We Post... WillyT Feb 2015 #10

I was being silly, on purpose. JaneyVee Feb 2015 #22

LOL !! - True... WillyT Feb 2015 #23

LOL! She lost to Obama after her odds were 70-30 merrily Feb 2015 #78

According to this model it would be QuestionAlways Feb 2015 #46

yup. Apparently. :-) HERVEPA Feb 2015 #76

yes but be sure not to go past 60 -40 either way lol nt msongs Feb 2015 #6

Yes, the 60/40 thing is a truly ridiculous thing to say. nt Chiyo-chichi Feb 2015 #73

Perhaps ike losing a primary after a 30 point lead? merrily Feb 2015 #79

Interesting article and theories. Gonna bookmark this. Autumn Feb 2015 #2

I wonder why the National Review is worried about Hillary. Oh, I got it, if Hillary is the DNC Thinkingabout Feb 2015 #3

This analysis has a MAJOR flaw in it - in that it's using President Obama's flawed approval ratings. BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #34

National Journal. Not National Review. onenote Feb 2015 #75

OK, the National Journal goes both ways also, just according to who is writing. Thinkingabout Feb 2015 #80

Take "National Review" off title, HUGEly diff from wonderful National Journal. RiverLover Feb 2015 #5

3-2 odds is huge DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #7

I read somewhere that an Electoral Landslide is 400 EV's or more Reter Feb 2015 #20

Does it mention what the chances are for other candidates? Renew Deal Feb 2015 #8

Those are largely deterministic models that use a generic candidate for both parties./NT DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #9

Yeah, but if she does win .... Scuba Feb 2015 #11

And if she loses... BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #29

The "lesser of evils" argument. Why do you believe we can't do better than that? Scuba Feb 2015 #32

One Democratic president in the White House is better than two Liberals in the bushes. BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #36

Yes, but one good progressive in the White House would be better yet. You seem to think ... Scuba Feb 2015 #40

It's not thinking on my part, Scuba. It's fact. A brief look into past elections is all the proof BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #47

Americans are not terrified of liberal ideas. Obama won twice running on them for god's sake. Scuba Feb 2015 #48

If that's what you want to believe, go for it. BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #49

I don't get the pretense that the only or even the most dominant reason a candidate TheKentuckian Feb 2015 #55

What wins is largely about getting folks... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #85

Was opposing marriage equality a liberal idea? DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #84

Are you suggesting that Obama did NOT run on a progressive platform? Scuba Feb 2015 #88

I am suggesting he trimmed some of his positions and kept to himself what he really believed DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #90

OK. The sub-thread you joined was focused on the popularity of progressive positions, so ... Scuba Feb 2015 #94

Bobby Kennedy is my hero... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #95

So, do you have a progressive who can win? brooklynite Feb 2015 #74

I am not voting for her. Katashi_itto Feb 2015 #51

Get that out of your system now. Because IF she announces, and you claim BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #54

No problem with that. It won't change what I will be doing. Katashi_itto Feb 2015 #59

Principle before posting privileges! Bobbie Jo Feb 2015 #68

So Impoverished with the Illusion of Social Justice or Impoverished with no Illusion of social Katashi_itto Feb 2015 #103

The National Review is William F. Buckley's love child with the Conservative movement. Agnosticsherbet Feb 2015 #12

The OP made a labeling mistake-it's the Nat'l Journal. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #13

Thanks for the clarificaiton. Agnosticsherbet Feb 2015 #15

Because... Like All Mags... Right Or Left... They Might Produce A Kernel Of Truth... WillyT Feb 2015 #14

Jeesh, Willy, you didn't post an article from National Review. National Review is TRASH. RiverLover Feb 2015 #16

Done. WillyT Feb 2015 #19

Willy- it doesn't matter. You mislabeled it. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #17

Fixed.. WillyT Feb 2015 #18

Posted to for later to find out who HRC could lose to. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Feb 2015 #21

They are based on generic candidates. The dumbing down of DU continues. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #24

I think you need to change you next to the last word to "might"... MrMickeysMom Feb 2015 #53

I left open room for uncertainty. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #57

Well, even I would admit to continuing to vote for the lesser of two evils... MrMickeysMom Feb 2015 #60

It's how you look at it. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #64

It strikes me as awful, too... MrMickeysMom Feb 2015 #66

No answer yet DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #26

'Liver' is pretty impressive, though! randome Feb 2015 #31

If you accept the models at face value it is more likely than not we lose... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #33

I know, models are only a starting point, nothing more. randome Feb 2015 #41

According to Drew Linzer he said he wouldn't go much north of 60-40 odds DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #44

pssh, pollsters said the Dems'd lose both houses in 2014--who can trust 'em?! MisterP Feb 2015 #25

The models aren't based on polls DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #27

How Insightful fredamae Feb 2015 #28

Incredible, isn't it? {Yawn}. randome Feb 2015 #30

this hilliary juggernaut has to run its course RedstDem Feb 2015 #35

BULL. With President Obama's campaign masterminds behind her and with him BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #37

A fifty dollar donation to DU says those that are recommending the article neither read ... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #38

Exactly. There's going to be a huge backlash from the Latino community after this Texas judge, BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #45

I forgot the exact line but it's the line that goes from downtown to Montebello. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #52

I'm not being snarky but did you actually read the article and understand it? DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #42

This analysis is flawed. They're using flawed polling on President Obama's approval ratings BlueCaliDem Feb 2015 #39

These models are right until they are wrong. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #43

She was a terrible candidate in '08 and had to carpetbag her Senate seat. Motown_Johnny Feb 2015 #50

I listened to Daily Kos radio yesterday, and they agreed... MrMickeysMom Feb 2015 #62

The same holds true for the (R)s Motown_Johnny Feb 2015 #96

Pay attention Android3.14 Feb 2015 #56

Did you even bother to read the article? DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #82

My post was about ignoring data Android3.14 Feb 2015 #98

The models were based on a generic Republican running against a generic Democrat. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #99

Willful ignorance only results in disaster Android3.14 Feb 2015 #100

I understand the data DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #101

K & R L0oniX Feb 2015 #58

She will win. n/t Orsino Feb 2015 #61

Why? eom MrMickeysMom Feb 2015 #63

Because at several points before Election Day... Orsino Feb 2015 #67

I agree with the oddsmakers DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #86

Maybe too far to call. Albertoo Feb 2015 #65

According to the model, EVERY democrat loses Orangepeel Feb 2015 #69

which explains the 13 recs (so far) and the OP's happy donkey kick wyldwolf Feb 2015 #71

Using his model, doesn't this mean ANY Democrat loses? wyldwolf Feb 2015 #70

The level of political sophistication here is, often, not of a order higher than Free Republic, DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #83

I predict that if Hillary loses the Left will be blamed. Tierra_y_Libertad Feb 2015 #72

^^^ Here^^^ MrMickeysMom Feb 2015 #97

The methods used are generic, not Clinton specific. It is a negative view of Democratic chances at Bluenorthwest Feb 2015 #77

And make no mistake, the VP candidate counts, especially if it's Julian Castro. Hispanics are libdem4life Feb 2015 #81

Plus it will provoke the GOP to be even more xenophobic... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #87

Very true, and often the small difference in the General Election is those Undecided Centrists who libdem4life Feb 2015 #89

I am so interested to see how Jeb Bush navigates the Republican primaries... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #91

They may give him a pass because of his wife. Not entirely, but the Bushes have a way with libdem4life Feb 2015 #93

This model is utter nonsense. Dawson Leery Feb 2015 #92

Bookmarking...nt SidDithers Feb 2015 #102