Ukraine Says Pullback Plan Signed With Russia

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14. There are some rebel claims there will be a prisoner exchange Saturday too.

Kiev and the West are afraid Putin won't stop, or be able to make the rebels stop, and Kiev has political issues of their own to deal with, so lots of bluster, but there are stories here and there that indicate lines are being drawn and borders closed and arrangements made, and plans for the future. Kiev is closing border checkpoints, the rebels have set up a new front line 20km or so N. of Debaltseve, which one presumes they will then withdraw the big guns from.

But there is discussion of aid and rebuilding and softpower competition too, from both sides. Right.

But the Minsk agreements keeps the Donbass inside Ukraine, which is the way Putin wants it, and I think that's going to take a while, be a problem. It's awkward for Kiev either to take them back or to expel them, and they get to keep their "local militias" so they can't just be suppressed, not that Putin would let that happen anyway. That's why Putin likes it that way, to fuck with Kiev. He is paying us back for Afghanistan.

Putin just wants Donbass to thwart having a strong hostile Ukraine on his border, but he doesn't want it getting ideas of its own. He may in the end take them in, but he won't be in any hurry about it. Like with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia.

And the quartet is spose to talk Tuesday.