Hillary the inevitable.

[Savannahmann]

169. Yes stats register. But we don't have stats.

We have polling. That is like an estimate before the game to continue with your Michael Jordan example. The game isn't being played yet. We're not even in the season yet. So standing there and announcing that Michael Jordan will score fifty points in the championship game is not a statistic, it's an estimate. It's a prediction.

Polling now is far too early to be meaningful. The only polling that is meaningful right now is public opinion on issues. That should be a guide for prospective candidates on how to shape their message, and what issues to focus on. Before we get to the competition we have a long road. And the issues right now are Hillary's weak spot. Because as the game approaches, people will start tuning in.

We'll win the 40% of people who traditionally vote Democratic. The Republicans will win the 40% that traditionally vote for them. That leaves 20% that we have to try and convince. Actually a hair over ten percent, but you get the point. So how do we convince those people to vote for us? Do we announce that the election is already over? Hillary won guys, give it up. We have polling to prove it.

We had polling that showed more than 90% of the people approved of background checks for all weapons sales. The Congress failed to pass the legislation. That same polling was used to predict a huge Democratic win in Congress. That huge Democratic win never materialized. That was after the pundits and poll watchers swore that the Republican Party was dead because of that action.

Citizens United would unite the people to vote the Republican out of office. The Republicans picked up seats in the House and the Senate. Statistics were used to prove that the Republicans were doomed. Polling was used to show that the Democrats could just enjoy the stroll to victory. Now of course, we've forgotten about all of that haven't we?

Hillary is on the unpopular side of too many issues to win. Senator Wyden, of Oregon, knows that if he sides with the TPP his career in the Senate is over. http://www.aflcio.org/Blog/Political-Action-Legislation/Poll-Shows-Voters-Will-Hold-Lawmakers-Accountable-for-Fast-Track-Support

Senator Wyden is a popular Senator with his constituents, yet this one issue places him in dire jeopardy of losing his seat. So let's talk issues.

Do you think the Labor Unions are going to push hard to get Hillary elected if she supports the TPP and Fast track which she has said she supports? The Labor Unions will not go Republican, but they won't go for Hillary either. How do Democrats win without the Unions? So how does your statistic look now? Unions make up 35% of public sector workers, and just under 7% of private sector workers. So how does Hillary win if she loses a percentage of that vote, even as little as a quarter of them because she supports TPP?

Remember, these are the statistics that you want to discuss, that you want to claim I don't understand.

Hillary won't win the South. So the states in play will be Ohio, Indiana, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Three of those four are Union states. How does she win them if the Union doesn't come out to support her? How can the Union come out and support her if she supports wiping the manufacturing base off the map with the TPP?

I know Statistics. I was warning people this time last year that the Senate was in real danger. I was told then that I had no idea what I was talking about, but I was reading the polls, and not just the ones that said what I liked. I was reading polls on issues, and despite the predictions of huge success here I remained constant in my worries about losing the Senate. Sadly, I was right. We lost the Senate, and we lost it badly. Already people forgot that, and already they're convinced we actually won somehow and will keep winning.

Hillary can't win. She can't unify the various demographics that are the core of the Democratic Party. The Volunteers won't show up, the Unions won't put the time in, and won't push her because to them it will be as if they are electing a Republican. Or do you think the AFLCIO is going to show up in great numbers to put in the hours to elect Hillary on Gay Marriage and Choice? Perhaps the UAW will really pump the dollars into her campaign so that they can see more factories moved to Mexico.

I know what I'm talking about. I know the statistics. I know the numbers. You're predicting the outcome of the final game of the basketball season and we're not even in team practices yet. The numbers right now are meaningless, because they don't take anything into account especially issues which drove the midterm election against us. Issues we utterly ignored kicked our asses while we answered every question with war on women. In far too many states we didn't even win the Women's demographic. For example Texas. Wendy Davis didn't even win with the Women voters. Allison Lundgren Grimes didn't either. Those were our big hopes remember the Statistics that were tossed about how they were going to win big?

IF we run Hillary. We lose big. Because too many of our supporters will not support her. Or do you think that the Union Leadership will tell their members to commit suicide to get Hillary elected? People vote for self interest. They pick candidates based upon self interest. That means issues. That means our candidate can't be Hillary.

Now, in November of next year, you and many others are probably going to be blaming me for screwing up her chances. I've made a prediction too. I'm predicting that Hillary is death for our party. I'm predicting that Hillary will lose and the Republicans would win all three branches of Government with at least four probably eight years of appointing SC justices. With their majority in the Senate they can name Justices that make Robert Bork look like an enlightened liberal.

But go ahead. Keep pointing to the polls. When they start to turn against Hillary, do what we did going into November. Swear that the Polls are wrong. Talk about how the polling only calls people's house phones and that leaves out the millennials who don't have house phones and live on their cells. Talk about how the polling is always skewed to the Republicans. Because this time, the polling was skewed towards us, we lost by much bigger margins than the polling predicted.

So tell me how any of that doesn't matter. How Hillary can win without the Unions. Or tell me a fairy tale about how the Unions will support her when she supports the TPP and Free Trade that eviscerates their membership. Remember, this is just one issue that has peeled off thousands of votes, unless you think that the Unions are so awesome that they would donate time, money, and energy and vote against their own interests.