per Netanyahu.
I have been reading the Israeli media - and it is fascinating how he really is completely willing to be seen as a very mean spirited liar. He seems like a healthier Dick Cheney. His campaign really echoes Dick Cheney's 'the terrorists will get you if we lose".
I am glad that Kerry so directly called him on:
1) Not knowing an agreement that is not yet completely developed.
2) Having been very wrong on the interim decision that he blasted as the deal of the century for Iran --- and now wants kept in place. ( Except he simultaneously wants more sanctions which would change the interim agreement and he ignores that neither side proposed it as a long term solution - just something to create space for negotiations.
3) Kerry called him out on having been just as certain that Iraq was a threat - when it wasn't. (Note as head of state, Netanyahu's comments were weighty as they were seen as informed by Mossad.)
Israeli elections are easier for the center/right to win - largely due to the large number of Russian Jews who immigrated in the 1980s/1990s - many who joined the settlers' movement. However, if enough of the center goes to the Zioinist camp/Lapid/Kohlon and the liberal party Meretz, it is possible that Netanyahu will lose.
The election is not like the US or like the UK. Each party creates a list that orders who they will place in the Knesset given how many seats they get. The 120 seats are given proportionately to all parties that get over 3. 5%. The President (Rivlin) designates who gets to try to form a coalition of 61 plus seats. An MK on a J Street call in said that ZU has a good chance of forming a new government if Likud does not get more votes than ZU AND if they do not immediately have 61 plus new members preferring Netanyahu.
Oddly, one factor may be the Israeli Arabs (within the green line - they are citizens). They used to have about 4 small parties - some of which would fall below the threshols. Instead they have a unified Arab list. If they get out the vote, they could make a huge difference - especially if Avidor Leiberman's party, which has been doing badly falls below the threshold. (By itself, that eliminates 4 right wing seats) The Arabs have said they do not want to be in the cabinet until the occupation is over -- but they could still influence things by indicating who they prefer as PM. (This is further complicated as some have said that the far right government - because they are so bad - is better for their cause.)
Here is a link to the left leaning Haaretz, which has a poll of polls they update - http://www.haaretz.com/ (The paper is left leaning, but has opeds over a very broad spectrum.)
IT is a strange situation that Netanyahu is both widely disliked, considered to be a very flawed, miserly (in money and engagement of others), dishonest person, AND the man likely to be Prime Minister after the vote. He has also shown he is willing to do or say whatever is needed. (It was beyond appalling that he insulted both France and Denmark as they mourned acts of violence in their countries. )
It might be that it is not Iran, but the fact that only in the US would he be greeted enthusiastically - and he wants that photo. On Iran, it is very likely true that had he just spoken at AIPAC, he would have had more success in pushing Congress behind the scenes. Now, after his speech -- the administration will counter what he says. The attention given that speech demands that and it will be hard to spin as the administration bashing Netanyahu.
(seriously - Kerry and Obama calmly calling Netanyahu out for things he says that are not true gives THEM a platform for defining a deal (if there is one) that will attract more attention because of the Netanyahu circus. It will be an interesting test of whether the US Congress will see that adding a war against Iran is absolutely not in our interest or the world's.
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