General Discussion

DanTex

(20,709 posts) Thu Feb 26, 2015, 01:10 PM Feb 2015

A (sad) tale of two polls. Actually, of one poll. [View all]

So there are two OPs now, about the same PPP poll. One of them claims that it shows very liberal voters approving of Hillary Clinton by an overwhelming 91-5. The other one claims that 47% of the party base disapproves of Clinton. Both are getting modestly recced.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026281310
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10026281485

What's going on here? Is each side just picking the numbers they want to see?

Actually no, it's not that at all. You see sometimes one side of an argument is right, and the other is just plain wrong. For example, the "climate" debate. One side is driven by ideology, the other by science. So who is driven by ideology (and innumeracy) in this instance? You be the judge:

The question is, are we going to fall into GOP style poll trutherism simply because some people don't like certain candidates?

Thanks Agschmid for scraping the images out of this pdf.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_22515.pdf

138 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

A (sad) tale of two polls. Actually, of one poll. [View all] DanTex Feb 2015 OP

OMG! 91% of very liberal people favor Hillary and 79% of Dems favor Hillary. leftofcool Feb 2015 #1

Thats what I keep trying to point out to the Left Leaning Independents on this board! VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #76

Ask children who makes the best hamburger and they'll say McDonalds. NYC_SKP Feb 2015 #2

You have a pretty low opinion of liberals, it seems. DanTex Feb 2015 #5

No, I have a pretty low opinion of Public Policy Polling and people who put stock in their polls. NYC_SKP Feb 2015 #9

Well maybe not? Agschmid Feb 2015 #12

Those figures assume a well designed survey, am I right? NYC_SKP Feb 2015 #23

Ok. Agschmid Feb 2015 #24

Why don't you believe it to be the case? And what variables haven't they controlled for? DanTex Feb 2015 #25

Phone polls are cheap to conduct but notoriously unreliable. NYC_SKP Feb 2015 #27

Which explains your rec of the "47%" thread... DanTex Feb 2015 #30

"overwhelming percentage of liberals like Hillary Clinton" Joe Turner Feb 2015 #126

That's why it's wise to look at all the polls available. DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #31

Lets also remember how early it is, and how "meaningful" these things were in early 2007. (nt) NYC_SKP Feb 2015 #39

Polls are snapshots. You will get no debate from me./NT DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #40

actually in the case of Hillary's support dsc Feb 2015 #115

Great article and link, NYC_SKP Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #58

If you do the research you will discover PPP's findings... DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #32

even better...let em try this one.... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #80

The results aren't crap. As long as you have results beyond the 5.6% margin of error pnwmom Feb 2015 #15

You're right, the number could be as low as 73.4% approval from Dems. Or as high as 84.6%. DanTex Feb 2015 #16

Of course you do sharp_stick Feb 2015 #17

this is a very well respected firm dsc Feb 2015 #114

"PPP didn't poll DU or the outcome would have been significantly different! " SidDithers Feb 2015 #8

^^^THIS^^^^ VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #81

Perfection, thy name is Sid Dithers! n/t NanceGreggs Feb 2015 #107

Thanks, Nance... SidDithers Feb 2015 #136

Stop it Sidney! You're killin' me. Tarheel_Dem Feb 2015 #134

I bet DUers were polled in proportion to their existence in the population. pnwmom Feb 2015 #13

If the poll was conducted properly.... NCTraveler Feb 2015 #38

Or if one were to believe in fairytales...one might believe that DU is just like the rest of the VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #82

OH so you are claiming Democrats are all children....its the VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #79

DU as children or childish, never! I mean that some democrats are gullible like children. NYC_SKP Feb 2015 #88

It's simultaneously sad and comical how many recommendations the specious thread got./NT DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #3

Am I correct in reading that "Base" is the raw data from those who answered the poll? Agnosticsherbet Feb 2015 #4

Yes. Base is the whole surveyed population. Ideology and party are subsets DanTex Feb 2015 #6

Thanks. That clarifies what I've seen in both posts. Agnosticsherbet Feb 2015 #7

Its all they have....they are so desperate...they now are using the exact same tactics VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #84

It isn't the Democrat(ic) or Republican numbers that are the trouble LondonReign2 Feb 2015 #10

Your welcome for the images... Agschmid Feb 2015 #11

By the way, what's the easiest way to do that? Just screengrab and crop? DanTex Feb 2015 #20

Yup. Agschmid Feb 2015 #22

Why would 20 people rec a thread that, deliberately or accidentally, misrepresents polling data?... SidDithers Feb 2015 #14

Some people said they rec'd to point out the idiocy being displayed... Agschmid Feb 2015 #18

Ok. But from the names in that rec list... SidDithers Feb 2015 #19

Agree. Agschmid Feb 2015 #21

My favorite reccers are the ones that are now complaining about PPP. DanTex Feb 2015 #33

Why are EXIT POLLS WRONG during elections Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #54

What does that have to do with you misrepresenting the polling data?... SidDithers Feb 2015 #55

Really, my ass handed to me? Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #59

100% of DU'ers polled said "Please Staph!" Agschmid Feb 2015 #62

Yes...there's your ass in your hand! VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #85

Hillary's unfavorables are higher than repubs Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #89

YOU keep clinging to that if it helps.... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #90

I'm not the one "clinging" to anything Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #95

Okay at some point you need to decide if you feel the sample size is representative... Agschmid Feb 2015 #98

Let's cut to the chase--PPP isn't all that accurate all the time. MADem Feb 2015 #26

LOL. Poll truthers strike again. DanTex Feb 2015 #28

Well, I am not a hater, but if one polling company can come up with such diverse results, MADem Feb 2015 #36

What diverse results? Did you even read the OP? DanTex Feb 2015 #37

The other OP didn't take the meaning of the term "base." MADem Feb 2015 #42

Of course it matters. It's blatantly misreading a poll. DanTex Feb 2015 #44

I'll bet if you look around you can find a wingnut poll that says the opposite. MADem Feb 2015 #45

Evidently you tried, and weren't able to. Hence the "I bet if". DanTex Feb 2015 #47

No, I didn't try--my point is that this whole exercise is foolishness. MADem Feb 2015 #49

Well, maybe you should. Because then you'll realize how wrong you are. DanTex Feb 2015 #50

My point is that NONE of them are "reputable" at this stage of the game. It's all bullshit and talk. MADem Feb 2015 #63

OK, so no polls showing Bernie Sanders ahead. As I thought. One check in my column. DanTex Feb 2015 #64

You and MADem are essentially arguing the same thing. Agschmid Feb 2015 #66

I give up!!!!! MADem Feb 2015 #72

Who said anything about Sanders? What are you ON about? MADem Feb 2015 #70

You did. Right here: DanTex Feb 2015 #77

its not many or most Duers....its just a vocal minority of Left Leaning Independents... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #87

Thank you daredtowork Feb 2015 #117

Because YOU are mischaracterizing ME..... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #118

Huh? daredtowork Feb 2015 #121

Blind loyalty to the "D" is not something to proud of... Agschmid Feb 2015 #124

No....loyalty to THE people....not the letter... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #125

What Democrats on DU? You've told the majority of us we aren't Democrats, remember? DisgustipatedinCA Feb 2015 #119

No I didn't tell the Majority of them.... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #120

You're a little off. DisgustipatedinCA Feb 2015 #122

No I am spot on! VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #123

Oh, for heaven's sake--I didn't mean ACTUALLY DO IT... MADem Feb 2015 #131

the POINT is....that misrepresenting the facts in order to substantiate a narrative... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #86

When someone on Fauxsnooze talks out their ass, I laugh at them, too. MADem Feb 2015 #132

Right that is the OTHER tactic... VanillaRhapsody Feb 2015 #137

Well, regardless of whether or not the person started that other thread on the basis of a MADem Feb 2015 #138

You, according to the OP, are a "Poll Truther"! NYC_SKP Feb 2015 #41

Actually, what I am is a person who is mightily sick of the bullshit tearing down I am seeing on DU. MADem Feb 2015 #43

Agreed. Decided that was a failure long ago. freshwest Feb 2015 #48

I need to get in here somewhere DemocratSinceBirth Feb 2015 #83

Nate Silver admitted he got lucky. MADem Feb 2015 #133

The Independent/Other number is what bothers me. Motown_Johnny Feb 2015 #29

The term "base" in this poll does NOT refer to the Democratic base. hedda_foil Feb 2015 #34

Exactly. Now try explaining that to the people cheering on the 47% number. DanTex Feb 2015 #35

You whine a lot! nt Logical Feb 2015 #46

Not exactly the correct premise Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #51

The percentages aren't meaningless unless you read them incorrectly. On purpose. DanTex Feb 2015 #53

Reading comprehension Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #56

A first start would be to not get the numbers wrong. On purpose. DanTex Feb 2015 #57

What was "false"? Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #60

Had nothing to do with the party base. That was the entire electorate. DanTex Feb 2015 #61

Where does the poster mention the party base? All I see on that document is 'base'. Rex Feb 2015 #65

Umm, when he/she said "47% of the base". DanTex Feb 2015 #67

How is that wrong? TO be wrong it would be, "47% of the Democratic base." Yes? Rex Feb 2015 #68

The OP's post was misleading on purpose. Agschmid Feb 2015 #69

Okay I did not know they admitted to purposely disrupting. Rex Feb 2015 #73

Sure does. Agschmid Feb 2015 #74

NEVER made and such admission. Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #91

Oh so when you posted this emoji... Agschmid Feb 2015 #94

Every day is a school day for me Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #96

It's your fail not mine. You decide. Agschmid Feb 2015 #97

My fall? Did you see the last election results? Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #105

*fail. Agschmid Feb 2015 #106

So you don't see the party is losing ground? Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #108

Sure I see it, I'm stuck with Charlie Baker as my governor... Agschmid Feb 2015 #109

LOL. Seriously, trying to slide on word games? DanTex Feb 2015 #71

The crosstabs reflect EXACTLY what I posted Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #93

Would you agree that presenting percentages is a kind of game? Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #99

The raw numbers were disclosed and were a representative sized sample. Agschmid Feb 2015 #101

Not the "sample" numbers. The UNWEIGHTED crosstabs. Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #103

A deliberate omission, I suspect. MADem Feb 2015 #75

Here is the entire post Rex Feb 2015 #78

Actually I am COUNTING on people looking at the data Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #102

Obama was guar-ON-TEEEEEEED to lose BIG to RMoney--Guar-ON-TEEEEEEED, I tellya!!!!! MADem Feb 2015 #130

Base of what? Base of a lamp post? MADem Feb 2015 #129

If you start with a false premise, the blanks are filled in after one does the math. MADem Feb 2015 #135

Isn't a poll citing 60% of... a game of "fill in the blanks" Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #100

Here is a good answer to that... Agschmid Feb 2015 #104

What is that an answer to? What I asked MADem? Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #110

FFS... Agschmid Feb 2015 #112

Whatever. You posted something that didn't make sense in context Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #113

Answer: Because people lie. nt MADem Feb 2015 #128

So true. n/t prayin4rain Feb 2015 #52

You're for the oligarchy candidate. We get it. L0oniX Feb 2015 #92

Based on the two crosstabs posted Hillary is seen unfavorably by more "VOTERS" Cosmic Kitten Feb 2015 #111

and most of them are right wing leaning JI7 Feb 2015 #127

poll-truthers. wyldwolf Feb 2015 #116