Can a Democrat or even Hillary win without Union Support? [View all]

[Savannahmann]

It seems we are going to find out. One of the problems that comes with a nomination for Hillary is the baggage of additional support for the TPP. Hillary Clinton has long supported Free Trade despite the fact that it costs jobs to American Workers, especially Union workers. http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Hillary_Clinton_Free_Trade.htm

Now, Unions have been very vocal in their opposition to the TPP and especially Fast Track Authority. The AFL-CIO has told Senator Wyden of Oregon that if he supports the TPP or Fast Track that his re-election effort is in serious jeopardy come 2016. 2016 of course, is a Presidential Election year.

So how much support normally comes from Unions to help Democratic Candidates get elected? SEIU has donated more than $220 million dollars to Democratic Candidates and Campaigns. https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php In 2012 alone the SEIU donated more than $25 million dollars to Democrats. But their support does not stop with cash, and votes. Union members show up to rallies, they show up and volunteer, they show up and man phone banks to help GOTV. You know, that massive defense against weak campaigns on our side is to shout GOTV, well the Unions are instrumental in GOTV efforts.

35% of Public Employees, and more than 6% of private employees are union. That translates to tens of millions of votes, supporters, and people we have traditionally counted on. For example, If Unions had sat out the election in 2012, President Obama would have won by one percent of the vote. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/supreme-court-ruling-wounds-both-democrats-and-unions-neither-fatally/

Let's look at 2008 and 2012 again. President Obama won in 2008 with 69,498,516 votes. That was a hair shy of 53% of the vote. In 2012 however, he won with 65,915,796 votes, or 51% of the vote. By contrast, the Republicans picked up a million votes in 2012 from their showing in 2008. While President Obama lost four million votes, the Republicans picked up a million. So three million voters for our side stayed home, and a million switched sides.

There is always some bleeding where Union members vote against their own interests. That's going to happen. Unions don't march in lock step by any stretch of the imagination. However, one thing is apparent. Democratic party chances without Union Support would be reduced to a coin toss. Even if you ignore the risk to the vote totals, you would have to forego not only the money, but the support in manpower of the Unions at events, phone banks, and organization of GOTV efforts.

In short, I don't believe we can win without support from the Unions. Now, will the Unions turn out and throw their money, time, and encourage people to volunteer for a candidate that hopes to gut their members? For the Unions, this is literally both parties being the same. You can now begin to pound on your keyboard about Choice, GLBT rights, horrid records on minorities, and the evil of the Koch machine. But to the Union, it won't matter who is cutting their throat. Is it supposed to make the Union members feel better that their factories are shut down by a treaty signed by Democrats as opposed to a treaty signed by Republicans? Will the Democratic Party position on Gay Marriage somehow keep the Union members employed?

The Unions are telling us that they have a Litmus test this election cycle. It is the TPP. They've warned Senator Wyden, they can't stand by and say oh well the Republicans would be worse. For them, anyone passing the TPP, especially through Fast Track is suicide. Because without the Unions, we are down to risking the election on a roll of the dice. Do the die come up Lucky 7? Or will it be Snake Eyes? If we nominate someone who has supported the TPP and Fast Track with a long history of Free Trade support, the throw of the dice ends up hurting the Unions no matter who wins the election.

This my friends, is one of those Issues that is not reflected in your polling, and one that anyone with a modicum of intelligence is able to see will hamstring us and make even the narrowest of victories uncertain at best. Ok Hillary Supporters, start posting your poll results now and shouting that issues don't matter because it's too early in the election season but the Polls are the only thing that do matter this early.