GOP Worries About Backlash If Court Guts Obamacare

[Jim Lane]

44. It's how some House Republicans terrified of the general election could get around Boehner

Suppose the Democrats introduce a bill to undo the effects of an adverse decision in King v. Burwell. Boehner, cowed by Tea Party threats, refuses to let the bill even come to the floor (as he's blocked a vote on a clean long-term DHS funding bill). The Democrats can start a discharge petition, which, if signed by 218 House members (i.e, a majority), discharges the committee from considering the bill and moves it to the House floor for a vote. It comes up for a vote whether Boehner likes it or not.

The current House has 188 Democrats. The question would be whether there are 30 Republicans whose fear of crossing Boehner plus their fear of a Tea Party primary challenge is less than their fear of facing a November election in which they have to explain their willingness to deprive eight million people of health insurance (and maybe even hit them with bills for repayment of the "illegal" subsidies they received).

There are Republicans in swing districts, who know they'll be facing the expanded electorate of a Presidential year. Those from states lacking their own exchanges will have some of those eight million among their own constituents and will face additional pressure.

My guess is that at least 30 of those Republicans go to Boehner privately and say, "We have to do something. If you won't work with us, we'll sign the petition and vote for the Democrats' bill." The compromise that will emerge will be to restore the status quo ante (everyone gets subsidies, and it's retroactive) but with a two-year sunset provision. This will reassure the Tea Partiers that it's just temporary, because the Kenyan would veto any decent bill anyway, and in 2017 President Walker can sign a permanent repeal.