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[Algernon Moncrieff]

91. No one has seen The Magistrate. Many are looking.

I agree with much of what you write. I'd point out that the progressive (i.e. further left of center than the rest) wing of the party tends to provide organizers (many skew younger, and are willing to do the drudge work of phone banking and knocking on doors) and provide thought leadership. They play a tremendous role in the House and Senate as talkers and on committees. However, in a GE, candidates need to skew closer to the center to be elected. There are election cycles that short circuit this rule: 1976 (post-Watergate/Ford pardon), 1980 (widespread anger over the Iranian hostages and high interest rates), and 2008 (widespread anger with the economic meltdown and the Iraq war). This next cycle won't be that. This next election will likely be more like a 2000: a successful Democratic President who is despised by a certain segment of the population; a rising/good economy (assuming it's still in decent shape in a year, which I suspect it will); and a conservative/Republican Congress. The vast middle (much of which is independent) will want to preserve their economic gains, and wants something done about ISIS (mind you -- they don't know what, in terms of involving our troops -- but they want them dead, yesterday). There will be noise from the right made about: how Christians are persecuted in America; whether we've gone too far on marriage; our porous border with Mexico; and our debt sending us straight to Hell. However, ISIS (or more broadly, security) and terror will be the issues. The wild cards that could play out include: a terror event; Russian expansionism; the SCOTUS decision on the ACA; and the to-be-expected late-2nd-term White House scandal that we always seem to get. Long winded story short: I don't see this as an election in which the vast American middle will want to install someone perceived as progressive (or ultra conservative for that matter). It's going to be Jeb or Christie (outside shot to Walker) on their side, and ???? for us. I hope we choose well.