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Barack Obama still leads big in Electoral College [View all]
Barack Obama still leads big in Electoral College
by kos
Three weeks ago I looked at the swing state polling and found that President Barack Obama led by landslide numbers. That picture is little changed today.
Again, I'm taking the poll composite from TPM's Poll Tracker, including Rasmussen polling—which gives the GOP an unwarranted edge, but gives us a worst-case scenario picture. (For example, while the numbers below show Florida tied, taking out Rasmussen would give us a 47-44 Obama lead.)
<...>
We haven't had new numbers from Colorado since the last time we checked in, and Iowa's results are now three months old. Surprised no one has polled more recently.
Three weeks ago, Obama had double-digit leads in five states (CO, MI, NH, NM, WI). Today, that's down to two states. Romney narrowed the gap in nine states, while Obama narrowed the gap or increased his margin in three states. Most of those changes were slight. But in any case, it's fair to say that wrapping up the GOP nomination gave Romney somewhat of a bump.
His problem, however, is that he was so far behind Obama that this bump hasn't gotten him that close to actually winning these states. And, in fact, Romney's standing in both Arizona and Missouri has similarly eroded. In fact, if you tally up the states in which the candidates lead by five points or more, Obama already has enough to win the election—273 electoral votes to Romney's 180.
And if you simply go by polling leads, the map is identical to last week's: a massive Obama 341-197 drubbing.
- more -
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/02/1088200/-Barack-Obama-still-leads-big-in-Electoral-College
by kos
Three weeks ago I looked at the swing state polling and found that President Barack Obama led by landslide numbers. That picture is little changed today.
Again, I'm taking the poll composite from TPM's Poll Tracker, including Rasmussen polling—which gives the GOP an unwarranted edge, but gives us a worst-case scenario picture. (For example, while the numbers below show Florida tied, taking out Rasmussen would give us a 47-44 Obama lead.)
<...>
We haven't had new numbers from Colorado since the last time we checked in, and Iowa's results are now three months old. Surprised no one has polled more recently.
Three weeks ago, Obama had double-digit leads in five states (CO, MI, NH, NM, WI). Today, that's down to two states. Romney narrowed the gap in nine states, while Obama narrowed the gap or increased his margin in three states. Most of those changes were slight. But in any case, it's fair to say that wrapping up the GOP nomination gave Romney somewhat of a bump.
His problem, however, is that he was so far behind Obama that this bump hasn't gotten him that close to actually winning these states. And, in fact, Romney's standing in both Arizona and Missouri has similarly eroded. In fact, if you tally up the states in which the candidates lead by five points or more, Obama already has enough to win the election—273 electoral votes to Romney's 180.
And if you simply go by polling leads, the map is identical to last week's: a massive Obama 341-197 drubbing.
- more -
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/02/1088200/-Barack-Obama-still-leads-big-in-Electoral-College
Despite Kos' scenario, there are still a few states that need solid work to move them to strong for Obama.
12 replies
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