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DemocratSinceBirth

(101,975 posts)

109. I read that a live caller national telephone survey cost $20,000.00

Fri Mar 20, 2015, 10:33 AM

Mar 2015

For a major media outlet that doesn't seem like a lot of money but to a non profit organization that seems like a lot.

You can reduce that by about $15,000.000 to $5.000.00 if you use an automated caller but then you miss out on cell phone users and that skews your survey badly. You can also supplement your automated survey with live callers to reduce costs.

However, live callers to both landline and cell phone users is the gold standard.

I have serious reservations about online polls because they are not random samples and my reservations about online political panels are beyond serious because the same people are polled over and over again. A lot of the bias introduced into online political polls is likely a function of the fact that only the most interested will continue to be queried.

You seem to have a background in social science research, do you?

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Reuters: Democratic support for Hillary drops 15 points since February [View all] MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 OP

the right wing and its enablers are starting to do their job dsc Mar 2015 #1

Oh come on. The primary hasn't started, she hasn't declared. morningfog Mar 2015 #3

This is exactly what happened to Gore dsc Mar 2015 #5

I think people are tiring of the Hatfield, McCoy, McCoy Hatfield Hatfield namastea42 Mar 2015 #9

what do you think the emails contained? KMOD Mar 2015 #15

It doesn't matter what was on them. morningfog Mar 2015 #19

namastea42 wonders about what is in them. KMOD Mar 2015 #25

But that's my point. The "wonder" is all that matters. morningfog Mar 2015 #29

I would like to hear what one wonders, KMOD Mar 2015 #31

I just wonder how a cabinet level official morningfog Mar 2015 #38

for your reading pleasure KMOD Mar 2015 #50

Nothing in that article explains her poor decision to co-mingle emails. morningfog Mar 2015 #64

lol, I knew you cherry pick that one statement. KMOD Mar 2015 #72

She turned over the emails 6 years after the beginning of the her term karynnj Mar 2015 #126

Communications she had for work, KMOD Mar 2015 #140

That works if and only if every work email CC'd someone on the .gov server karynnj Mar 2015 #158

My husband works in IT security. KMOD Mar 2015 #162

I'm not "going after her." morningfog Mar 2015 #218

You're on to something brush Mar 2015 #79

I was about to post something similar. The risk is way too high. namastea42 Mar 2015 #83

I asked you earlier, KMOD Mar 2015 #85

You asked me earlier? brush Mar 2015 #93

I was replying to namastea42 KMOD Mar 2015 #95

Sorry. nt brush Mar 2015 #99

or maybe, just maybe KMOD Mar 2015 #84

Still not a good idea brush Mar 2015 #98

President Clinton had the server. KMOD Mar 2015 #106

Actually, 2008 shows the danger in an unknown (not HRC, who hasover 3 decades in the public eye) karynnj Mar 2015 #147

Do you REALLY believe that ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #139

Nope. But that is enough to drive the narrative and frame the campaign. morningfog Mar 2015 #204

Drive a campaign based on something ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #224

Libya, we came, we saw, he died. Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #75

doubtful. KMOD Mar 2015 #76

That IS the problem, you are GUESSING Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #90

I am not guessing. KMOD Mar 2015 #102

LOL, are you trying to "punk" us Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #124

lol KMOD Mar 2015 #131

But there is NO PROOF Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #136

Because it's impossible to PROVE something does not exist. KMOD Mar 2015 #145

Exactly, it doesn't matter what was in them. A Simple Game Mar 2015 #151

I'm terrible on names, but fadedrose Mar 2015 #80

The dead broke comment was assinine. KMOD Mar 2015 #82

You do realize that ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #146

You're right fadedrose Mar 2015 #209

and again dsc Mar 2015 #28

I had and stlll have plenty of words for Bush(es) and none of them are kind. namastea42 Mar 2015 #33

it is about double standards dsc Mar 2015 #41

Democrats should not lower standards to match the Bushes. It's that simple. namastea42 Mar 2015 #56

Do not give the theft of the 2000 election that kind of cover. morningfog Mar 2015 #13

I just want a press that doesn't lie dsc Mar 2015 #26

Gore won. It was stolen. The blame for that morningfog Mar 2015 #34

that is exactly and precisely what not only Bush dsc Mar 2015 #40

Not quite the same. morningfog Mar 2015 #63

Some here are invested in any narrative BUT the factual one. Rex Mar 2015 #58

That's an interesting fantasy about how Bush won in 2000. Rex Mar 2015 #55

Had he won NH then Flordia wouldn't have mattered one bit dsc Mar 2015 #59

He won, why can you not say it? Rex Mar 2015 #61

+1 Enthusiast Mar 2015 #129

Note that the reaction in the poll is entirely in the primary question karynnj Mar 2015 #112

Gore WON the 2000 election. The SC stole it for Bush. sabrina 1 Mar 2015 #196

The media were marching in lock step against President Gore from the get go. hedda_foil Mar 2015 #250

Not sure Hillary will declare, but if she does, she'll need to step up her game. Competition from Elizabeth would help. InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #16

I don't think this is bad news. This may ensure more candidates participating namastea42 Mar 2015 #4

just what we heard about the stories about Gore dsc Mar 2015 #6

The Progressive Wing, or the Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party, I think you mean. RiverLover Mar 2015 #14

The "vast right wing conspiracy"? earthside Mar 2015 #37

I have no idea if it is a conspiracy dsc Mar 2015 #45

I don't think this is the right wing and its enablers karynnj Mar 2015 #86

They hate women and the idea that one can be president is unacceptable to the Koch NoJusticeNoPeace Mar 2015 #104

Voting for someone just because the person is a woman is also unacceptable. L0oniX Mar 2015 #107

Repeat after me, both parties are the same...keep saying it until you believe it NoJusticeNoPeace Mar 2015 #110

Enjoy your Goldman oligarchy vote. L0oniX Mar 2015 #171

It's not the right wing ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #133

Today, it looks like we have a choice.... DonViejo Mar 2015 #134

Sweet! Polling A la Carte ;~) Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #142

I was interested in learning if Ipsos/Reuters was still conducting their polls on the internet... DonViejo Mar 2015 #155

Are you sitting down? MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #231

.... DonViejo Mar 2015 #235

So while Nate Silver said Internet Polls were the most accurate, MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #239

Self delete MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #237

I have a question. Enthusiast Mar 2015 #150

He was hoping for an extended primary dsc Mar 2015 #168

No, this was before Obama became the clear front runner. This was right from the start. Enthusiast Mar 2015 #188

that is baldly false dsc Mar 2015 #213

BTW here is a link proving you told a big fat untruth dsc Mar 2015 #236

Untruth as in lie? You are mistaken. I thought Limbaugh started with the vote for Hillary Enthusiast Mar 2015 #243

In post 188 dsc Mar 2015 #244

You have an unfair heart. Enthusiast Mar 2015 #245

BS - she brought it 840high Mar 2015 #228

She's only the powerhouse inevitable nominee...until she isn't. morningfog Mar 2015 #2

There's a reason so many are so vested in all-but declaring her the nominee now (nt) jeff47 Mar 2015 #161

Yes, they know Hillary can't withstand scrutiny on the issues & that her poll#s cant survive a rigorous campaign. InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #252

Yet she is still outperforming every Republican in the clown car Proud Liberal Dem Mar 2015 #7

If Hillary loses, Democrats will not regain the Senate Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #8

We need a "Plan B"; just not sure Bernie is the answer. Maybe a "Plan E"? InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #20

The DNC has hollowed out the party Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #27

+1 for "Plan E" RiverLover Mar 2015 #30

What "E" are you thinking about? brooklynite Mar 2015 #44

Their infatuation with Elizabeth "New Money" Warren is amusing isn't it? Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #48

Not really amusing at all demwing Mar 2015 #68

I was inspired to support her campaign for the Senate...where she wants to stay brooklynite Mar 2015 #69

And many of us are inspired to encourage her to run for POTUS demwing Mar 2015 #78

Thanx demwing, well said. Oh and btw, Elizabeth WILL run, Hillary can "bank" on it. InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #92

With no financial or political resources? brooklynite Mar 2015 #100

Agree with you 100%, which is what distinguishes Elizabeth and makes her, as the "reluctant candidate," all the more attractive. InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #121

What is attractive about a failure? brooklynite Mar 2015 #149

U mite b rite, $ talks, unfortunately, but Elizabeth cud lead by example & swear off big $ donors & get major media buzz that way. It's possible. InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #200

She didn't swear off big $ in her Senate race...why do it now? brooklynite Mar 2015 #210

Not sure. What do you see in Hillary? /nt demwing Mar 2015 #206

Pro choice, pro-gay rights, pro infrastructure, pro safety net, voted against Bush tax cuts... brooklynite Mar 2015 #212

Clearly she's a Democrat. So is Elizabeth Warren. demwing Mar 2015 #219

I reference failure only in the context of campaigning... brooklynite Mar 2015 #223

In the context of campaigning demwing Mar 2015 #230

Elizabeth Warren won the State of Massachusetts...and so did Hillary Clinton brooklynite Mar 2015 #234

Oh c'mon, it's fun in here! demwing Mar 2015 #238

Wouldn't that be wonderful if Warren runs? I sure hope that is in the cards and stars. namastea42 Mar 2015 #96

Seems like an ascertion with little presented behind it HereSince1628 Mar 2015 #54

Good points! I agree with your WI scenario Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #66

I don't really know that WI is an exception... HereSince1628 Mar 2015 #103

Voter turn out. Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #113

Yes thats obvious, but HRC as the only source of said coattails needs fleshing out. HereSince1628 Mar 2015 #125

Unless Hillary can pickup independent voters, not likely. Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #132

How is retaking the Senate in any way tied to Hillary? tkmorris Mar 2015 #73

Coattails, SCOTUS, effective governing Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #88

Gerrymandering does not apply to the senate. jeff47 Mar 2015 #165

This message was self-deleted by its author ieoeja Mar 2015 #214

Coat tails, maybe? libdem4life Mar 2015 #91

In the Primary? n/t ieoeja Mar 2015 #215

Yes. In the Primary. That's where the momentum is created, choices down ticket libdem4life Mar 2015 #254

Garbage rock Mar 2015 #10

Keep trying, Manny...nt SidDithers Mar 2015 #11

It'll drop even more after she announces. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Mar 2015 #12

Hillary does seem to be her own worst enemy, when she starts campaigning & her poll numbers then eventually drop over time as her views become known. InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #23

Exactly, this is a preview of the carnage to come Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #24

You're dead on about the Senate. Hillary is not goin to inspire Dems to come out n vote like a true progressive candidate would. InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #135

Agreed. She is as motivational and inspiring as a flat Stanley. namastea42 Mar 2015 #205

Wow, it's that time already? FSogol Mar 2015 #17

Remember, Manny, after four hours call your doctor ... 11 Bravo Mar 2015 #18

The respondents to the poll are useful idiots Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #21

So what? Erich Bloodaxe BSN Mar 2015 #46

There is no scandal Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #53

What I 'give credence to' or not doesn't matter diddly squat. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Mar 2015 #62

Hillary will not ignore those voters Capt. Obvious Mar 2015 #67

Then she's ignoring those voters. jeff47 Mar 2015 #170

There you go Erich, if Hillary loses, it's all your fault. /nt demwing Mar 2015 #71

"Republicans and their left wing ALLIES"? You gotta be fuckin' kiddin...talk about throwin people under the bus! Wow, nice! InAbLuEsTaTe Mar 2015 #116

I guess we better embrace *cricket chirp* Badass Liberal Mar 2015 #22

It's a online poll!!! DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #32

And... Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #39

Online polls are not random samples and do not meet the standards DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #49

Hmm? Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #51

That everyone in the population that is measured has a theoretically equal chance of being polled DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #57

Hmm, again? Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #70

Random sample DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #74

How does a political polling group ensure this? Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #94

What kind of sample did the Reuters poll employ? It looks random? DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #114

Isn't that random? Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #119

Of course not . Not everybody is aware of their existence. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #127

That's what actually makes it random. jeff47 Mar 2015 #175

What makes a poll random is that every type of person has an equal chance of having their views... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #183

And that's why this poll used a panel the pollster selected. (nt) jeff47 Mar 2015 #185

There is no systematic way to collect a traditional probability sample of the general population... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #189

And the same thing applies to your "gold standard" landline polls. jeff47 Mar 2015 #192

No poll is perfect but those that rely on them still do well in predicting the final results DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #197

What contradiction? jeff47 Mar 2015 #217

So now the timing of when I make my points is an issue DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #222

It is when you constantly change your argument and contradict yourself. jeff47 Mar 2015 #225

Please provide evidence that an online internet poll is a random sample as... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #240

Thank you. A set of ppl who have volunteered to be on a panel is NOT a random Nay Mar 2015 #211

I am nothing if not honest DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #216

It depends on how the panel is formed. jeff47 Mar 2015 #226

Online polls can be random samples. jeff47 Mar 2015 #174

"Which Pre-Election Poll was Most Accurate?" MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #117

... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #122

So, to be clear, we agree that Ipsos- Reuters online polling MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #130

Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in 2008 according to... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #148

So your point is that *all* pollsters are bad, MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #182

I hope you aren't smoking when you are standing so close to a strawman. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #186

So what is your point in bringing up Rasmussen? MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #198

That one election cycle does not break or make a pollster... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #201

"It's a online poll!!!" MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #202

The poll has two flaws. It's an online poll and consequently it's a non-probability sample... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #203

This message was self-deleted by its author namastea42 Mar 2015 #143

Not using online/panel polling, Manny.....which Nate Silver notes here.... msanthrope Mar 2015 #166

And again... did you SERIOUSLY not read the article you link to? MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #199

Chart to chart, Manny....you claimed #1, but it's #6. nt msanthrope Mar 2015 #221

Is unopened Cialis returnable? TheCowsCameHome Mar 2015 #35

...and Morning Joe had a "Monica Story"! Mike Nelson Mar 2015 #36

Isn't that reason enough not to nominate a LIGHTNING ROD Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #42

She will be attacked like no other, and so will any Democrat! Mike Nelson Mar 2015 #251

Exactly! That's why we can't afford "unforced errors" Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #253

I expect when she actually starts campaigning it will drop a little more. Autumn Mar 2015 #43

Be careful, you don't want to make any predictions. JoePhilly Mar 2015 #47

E-mail "scandal" is BS tracks29 Mar 2015 #52

Sure, all cabinet members conduct ALL offical state business on private servers RiverLover Mar 2015 #60

I get the sense that MSNBC hosts fadedrose Mar 2015 #65

Over and over again it is shown how strong she is currently set up to run. NCTraveler Mar 2015 #77

It's not only a online poll but it's a panel study... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #81

Thank you for the additional info. NCTraveler Mar 2015 #87

It's getting harder and harder to conduct "conventional" polls DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #89

I do agree about it getting harder and harder. NCTraveler Mar 2015 #97

I read that a live caller national telephone survey cost $20,000.00 DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #109

You can't live-call a cell phone unless they agree to be called. jeff47 Mar 2015 #176

Bias would only be introduced if you could demonstrate ... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #180

Same applies to the online panel you decry. (nt) jeff47 Mar 2015 #184

HA HA This gives them an incentive to make themselves look good. Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #108

That is always a problem in any longitudinal study. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #111

Every poll has bias Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #118

I don't defend political poling per se. I defend polling that strives to meet industry standards./NT DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #154

panel studies are actually a pretty innovative and credible approach to polling. geek tragedy Mar 2015 #144

I hope King does another book fadedrose Mar 2015 #101

This message was self-deleted by its author Marr Mar 2015 #105

I wish there was a Decree for Democrats...stop apologizing...stop mea culpa-ing libdem4life Mar 2015 #115

IRL I do not know a single living breathing person anotojefiremnesuka Mar 2015 #120

I live in arguably the most liberal and diverse large city in the nation; Los Angeles DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #160

That is good for Hillary I guess anotojefiremnesuka Mar 2015 #163

She will be a great president for working people if her tenure is anything like her husband's DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #164

That is nice she still won't get my support anotojefiremnesuka Mar 2015 #167

It's a free country. You can do as you like./NT DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #172

It's not so free if only two families rule it. namastea42 Mar 2015 #227

I am a Democrat who will support whomever my party nominates randr Mar 2015 #123

KICK KICK KICK marym625 Mar 2015 #128

huh. . . In February I wasn't sure. But now after all the email bullshit and the made up Benghazi B Calm Mar 2015 #137

I blame the vast right wing conspiracy libodem Mar 2015 #138

If we get a president Adolf Walker workinclasszero Mar 2015 #141

A candidate is not entitled to votes. jeff47 Mar 2015 #179

Clickbait. stonecutter357 Mar 2015 #152

Did you just cite an "online poll" as something authoritative? Like the time you cited msanthrope Mar 2015 #153

"Which Pre-Election Poll was Most Accurate?" MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #159

Not using Online polling Manny....Nate Silver demolished that.... msanthrope Mar 2015 #169

Did you seriously not read the article you linked to? MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #181

On the chart you posted, they were #1. But they were actually #6 on my msanthrope Mar 2015 #187

You. Are. Incredible. MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #190

You, Manny, posted a chart, claiming they were #1. I posted a chart showing that with msanthrope Mar 2015 #193

YOU BROUGHT THE ARTICLE UP MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #194

Chart to chart, Manny.....that what I compared. #6, not 1. nt msanthrope Mar 2015 #220

Wow-- thanks for highlighting that. Marr Mar 2015 #191

Well, there are online polls and online polls... MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #195

Let's stipulate to move the argument forward that the poll is acceptable... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #207

What were the different questions asked MannyGoldstein Mar 2015 #246

Can you please link me to the IPSOS REID polls so I can see the actual question and data? DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #247

Wasn't your assertion addressed In post #148 DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2015 #177

I'm Not So Sure This Is Only About The Email Situation... ChiciB1 Mar 2015 #156

This message was self-deleted by its author Corruption Inc Mar 2015 #241

Hopefully people are waking up to the disaster she'd be as president LittleBlue Mar 2015 #157

Politics is a rough racket if you're carrying a lot of baggage on the campaign train. K&R Tierra_y_Libertad Mar 2015 #173

And it will continue to drop every time she gets in front of a microphone and cameras. Purveyor Mar 2015 #178

An online poll with a fixed sample is NOT accurate. Dawson Leery Mar 2015 #208

DU polling analysis: Like it? It's solid. Hate it? It's crap. AtomicKitten Mar 2015 #229

LOL. In the context of DU... cherokeeprogressive Mar 2015 #232

Quite a few no doubt. /nt AtomicKitten Mar 2015 #233

Peaked in 2011 and all downhill from there. NYC_SKP Mar 2015 #249

it's all the fault of DU!!!!! Doctor_J Mar 2015 #242

same thing happened with Whitman--a lot of votes, but no CA Pub I know wanted her MisterP Mar 2015 #248