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JonLP24

(29,322 posts)
30. It is worse when it less regulated or tolerated
Mon Mar 23, 2015, 04:04 PM
Mar 2015

or like the example I describe of something the looks a lot like gambling where gambling (outside of the state lottery & scratch tickets) is prohibited whatever it was, was worse than gambling.

The off-shore sites are a gamble in more ways than one. I have no idea where to find bookies or know where to look where they are basically, I have 0% in gambling based on odds, probability, things like that but I do have an interest in sports gambling. Yards per pass attempt & d yards per pass attempt are highly predictive stats regarding the NFL though FGs instead of TDs, turnovers throw a wrench into it. Baseball I would never touch but someone from the banking industry wrote a book on how he invested into baseball gambling, he did so in a way you'd invest in a hedge fund. Created a system that begins with the baseball pythagorem theorem than sabermetrics with the lineups but there were things he paid attention into far more detailed than sabermetric-fanatic.

He follow lineup changes really closely because he developed a probability system regarding the match-ups based off the information related to the system. So "2% of the fund were used on the more favorable match-ups he went lower event into the lower probability because he explained in a way that made sense regarding the risks involved why it would be favorable to risk the much for someone who was 40% favored to win.

He only won barely over 50% of the time when it came to picking match-ups & with baseball odds you're basically picking who wins, but the interesting thing though it was a system based on profit.

Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball

http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases-Fortune-Betting-Baseball/dp/0451415175

I read it, he knew what he was talking about. He said something very controversial very on in mentioning the public or someone like me avoid baseball gambling but he argued out of the professional sports it is the only one that is more of a sure thing. If you used Brian Burke's probability models in relation to the Vegas spread you can take advantage of bets based on public perception but there isn't a much better system in regards to prediction football. He mentions which I have a lot of Streak for the Cash experience In basketball, any system or 10+ lead accomplished when the winning team empties his bench & forfeits the spread victory. I remember a team that did that ran out the clock with an 8-point lead instead of trying to capture a 2 points that would have gave me back the victory.

In baseball, everyone lines up there is information how it relates to that individually, there is no running out the clock or how do you "stop running up the score" when you have to show up & bat. Very interesting thing I didn't catch regarding baseball gambling but I have to improve my mathematics education before I started with something like that.

He's trying to run for Vice President bigdarryl Mar 2015 #1
I don't think so. I think he sees that there is a worry about HRC in a certain group of our party FSogol Mar 2015 #2
I think I'd expand that comment a bit-- Jackpine Radical Mar 2015 #49
Doesn't look like it - I doubt Hillary wants a running mate who is very liberal at all. djean111 Mar 2015 #3
Hillary Clinton cynical? RiverNoord Mar 2015 #11
And even if she wanted a liberal, her financiers would veto such a VP, so not gonna happen. closeupready Mar 2015 #77
nope. he's going directly after Hillary. In a big way. cali Mar 2015 #4
I have thought of him and Warren on a ticket together. CTyankee Mar 2015 #5
I think O'Malley will appeal to Midwest and Western voters. If you have watched FSogol Mar 2015 #6
I hope you are right! CTyankee Mar 2015 #19
kick for later n/t hootinholler Mar 2015 #7
Thank you. This is the first that I have heard about where he stands and I like it. jwirr Mar 2015 #8
Some more info: FSogol Mar 2015 #9
He is running as someone that is aware of where Hillary Clinton is weakest JonLP24 Mar 2015 #10
I agree. Campaign rhetoric is not to be really trusted. djean111 Mar 2015 #13
this is hard to jive angrychair Mar 2015 #12
Alot of Democrats agreed with him because they voted to approve casinos in the 2012 elections. DCBob Mar 2015 #14
Like Hillary won't pretend to move left. nt djean111 Mar 2015 #53
LOL...at least you can say you got to be first! snooper2 Mar 2015 #16
Shows up in every O'Malley thread to bash him. Ikonoklast Mar 2015 #21
See this: elleng Mar 2015 #18
while positive sounding angrychair Mar 2015 #20
Prove your thesis. Ikonoklast Mar 2015 #22
Regarding gambling? JonLP24 Mar 2015 #26
Anecdote is not Data. Ikonoklast Mar 2015 #31
How was a lot of that measured? JonLP24 Mar 2015 #34
agree to disagree angrychair Mar 2015 #42
hit a nerve? angrychair Mar 2015 #32
I live very close to reservation economies JonLP24 Mar 2015 #35
I believe the gaming industry preys on stupid people, with no WestSeattle2 Mar 2015 #23
It is worse when it less regulated or tolerated JonLP24 Mar 2015 #30
Many intelligent people have gambling addictions. Maedhros Mar 2015 #59
The liberals totally fell asleep on that issue IronLionZion Mar 2015 #54
Casinos? If that's the worst of it, that's pretty damn good Orangepeel Mar 2015 #60
it goes to good judgement angrychair Mar 2015 #62
Well, actually Maryland has all of those strong foundation things Orangepeel Mar 2015 #64
Doesn't bother me whatsoever. I like a flutter every now and then. So what. closeupready Mar 2015 #81
This was posters at Vox today: Raine1967 Mar 2015 #15
Good to see, Raine. elleng Mar 2015 #36
THANKS, FSogol! elleng Mar 2015 #17
Obama sounded pretty progressive too, but moved right when elected. betterdemsonly Mar 2015 #24
BS. He was mayor of Baltimore and Governor of Maryland. There are tons of info on his record FSogol Mar 2015 #27
The US News and World Reports writeup betterdemsonly Mar 2015 #38
I look forward to reading your posts where you promote Democrats running for office FSogol Mar 2015 #46
He is. wyldwolf Mar 2015 #63
Bingo. I think you hit MOM's weak spot. How many will believe his nice sounding words? Peregrine Took Mar 2015 #28
Except that O'Malley has a good record of doing what he said. FSogol Mar 2015 #29
good thing for our country that those with the ignorant cheap pot shots have no clue about the Cha Mar 2015 #55
O'Malley's been an elected official for 25 years, from city council to governor Orangepeel Mar 2015 #61
How about Warren for prez, him for VP? LittleBlue Mar 2015 #25
I'd like to see his website LWolf Mar 2015 #33
Thanks for this. KoKo Mar 2015 #65
You're welcome. LWolf Mar 2015 #66
Take a look at wyldwolf's post #63 if you haven't seen it already. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Mar 2015 #82
Your post isn't fair to him, LWolf. senz Mar 2015 #67
see post 63 Erich Bloodaxe BSN Mar 2015 #83
Sounds like he's a Perfect VP Candidate for Hillary given his beliefs/connections... KoKo Mar 2015 #84
Sure it's LWolf Mar 2015 #85
Before anyone gets too excited ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #37
Yeah, but in fairness Jeff Rosenzweig Mar 2015 #40
But he only "just showed up from nowhere" and all ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #44
LOL Cali_Democrat Mar 2015 #52
I guess someone was embarassed of his/her/their thoughts ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2015 #58
Out of nowhere! IronLionZion Mar 2015 #56
Now if we can just convince the real thing to run. Fearless Mar 2015 #39
+1 /nt RiverLover Mar 2015 #57
I could see working the phones etc. for him in Iowa Omaha Steve Mar 2015 #41
One question MFrohike Mar 2015 #43
Other than Bill Hyers (Bill de Blasio's campaign manager) I don't really know. FSogol Mar 2015 #45
Oh wow MFrohike Mar 2015 #50
Useful, FSogol. elleng Mar 2015 #51
What a bad headline - sure, he sounds "a lot like warren", but he sounds JUST like O'Malley!!!! George II Mar 2015 #47
DUPE, sorry George II Mar 2015 #48
O'Malley quote: Marijuana can be a gateway to harmful activity. No thanks! B Calm Mar 2015 #68
And yet he approved Medical Marijuana for his state. n/t FSogol Mar 2015 #69
That he did, but he don't approve of legalization! B Calm Mar 2015 #70
It'll take longer to legalize in some places than others. FSogol Mar 2015 #71
Right now that's his stance. He needs to get with the opinion of the majority of B Calm Mar 2015 #72
Not sure I agree that it is the "opinion of the majority of people in our country", but FSogol Mar 2015 #73
You would be suprised how many people want it legalized. It might not be the number B Calm Mar 2015 #74
Have Sanders, Warren, Webb, or HRC promoted legalization? n/t FSogol Mar 2015 #76
Have any of them stated that marijuana is a a gateway to B Calm Mar 2015 #78
I don't know, that's why I asked. FSogol Mar 2015 #79
Maybe he'll evolve. bigwillq Mar 2015 #80
Whoa, I'm liking this guy. Big K&R closeupready Mar 2015 #75
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