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In reply to the discussion: In Iowa, O’Malley sounds a lot like a Democrat liberals love: Warren [View all]JonLP24
(29,322 posts)or like the example I describe of something the looks a lot like gambling where gambling (outside of the state lottery & scratch tickets) is prohibited whatever it was, was worse than gambling.
The off-shore sites are a gamble in more ways than one. I have no idea where to find bookies or know where to look where they are basically, I have 0% in gambling based on odds, probability, things like that but I do have an interest in sports gambling. Yards per pass attempt & d yards per pass attempt are highly predictive stats regarding the NFL though FGs instead of TDs, turnovers throw a wrench into it. Baseball I would never touch but someone from the banking industry wrote a book on how he invested into baseball gambling, he did so in a way you'd invest in a hedge fund. Created a system that begins with the baseball pythagorem theorem than sabermetrics with the lineups but there were things he paid attention into far more detailed than sabermetric-fanatic.
He follow lineup changes really closely because he developed a probability system regarding the match-ups based off the information related to the system. So "2% of the fund were used on the more favorable match-ups he went lower event into the lower probability because he explained in a way that made sense regarding the risks involved why it would be favorable to risk the much for someone who was 40% favored to win.
He only won barely over 50% of the time when it came to picking match-ups & with baseball odds you're basically picking who wins, but the interesting thing though it was a system based on profit.
Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases-Fortune-Betting-Baseball/dp/0451415175
I read it, he knew what he was talking about. He said something very controversial very on in mentioning the public or someone like me avoid baseball gambling but he argued out of the professional sports it is the only one that is more of a sure thing. If you used Brian Burke's probability models in relation to the Vegas spread you can take advantage of bets based on public perception but there isn't a much better system in regards to prediction football. He mentions which I have a lot of Streak for the Cash experience In basketball, any system or 10+ lead accomplished when the winning team empties his bench & forfeits the spread victory. I remember a team that did that ran out the clock with an 8-point lead instead of trying to capture a 2 points that would have gave me back the victory.
In baseball, everyone lines up there is information how it relates to that individually, there is no running out the clock or how do you "stop running up the score" when you have to show up & bat. Very interesting thing I didn't catch regarding baseball gambling but I have to improve my mathematics education before I started with something like that.