General Discussion

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)

80. As a retired software engineer with a stong interest in AI

Tue Mar 24, 2015, 12:56 AM

Mar 2015

Allow me to make the following observation. Back in 1967 when I started reading scholarly articles on AI in the professional journals the consensus prediction was that computer intelligence would match human intelligence within 10 years or so. In the 1970's human-level AI was predicted to be just ten years in the future. In the 1980's we were told, confidently, that AI would catch up to humans within 10 or 12 years.

Then came the 90's and major new breakthroughs which lead experts to revise their predictions and tell us we would have human-class AI in about 10 years. In the 2000's I repeatedly read about how humans were going to be put out of their jobs by intelligent computers within 10 years. Now we are hearing the startling new prediction that within a decade we will have computers that are smarter than humans.

Rhetorical question: Do you think I believe it for a minute?

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

172 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Steve Wozniak: The Future of AI Is 'Scary and Very Bad for People' [View all] madville Mar 2015 OP

"Real stupidity will beat artificial intelligence every time." hifiguy Mar 2015 #1

Or as I was going to say rock Mar 2015 #128

Basically we go 'Star Trek' with basic income gaurantee or 'Soilent Green' with capitalism as it kelly1mm Mar 2015 #2

That's the real question. AI is a threat to human society as it is currently structured Xithras Mar 2015 #16

Democratic Socialist here. Socialism and communism cannot become KingCharlemagne Mar 2015 #124

You may be refering to the Ferengi and their quest for Gold Pressed Latinum. Fun Fact: The kelly1mm Mar 2015 #135

'Star Trek' with basic income gaurantee or 'Soilent Green' with capitalism as it" workinclasszero Mar 2015 #94

+1 uponit7771 Mar 2015 #126

it already happens. PowerToThePeople Mar 2015 #3

It is, and many humans already function as organic robots in the system controlled by silicon, later RKP5637 Mar 2015 #34

We all do to some non-minor extent PowerToThePeople Mar 2015 #77

Yep, quite true, most of us dwell in the algorithmic ruts of life! n/t RKP5637 Mar 2015 #88

The Matrix Newest Reality Mar 2015 #4

This piece was written 22 years ago... Fumesucker Mar 2015 #5

I believe the biggest threat to humans is their laziness... Blanks Mar 2015 #6

I think the bigger risk is that the new dominant lifeform lumberjack_jeff Mar 2015 #7

Yep, humans, an inferior byproduct of an extraterrestrial experiment to populate a spinning ball of RKP5637 Mar 2015 #37

there are protections in place PowerToThePeople Mar 2015 #9

Do you understand what cloud computing is? WestCoastLib Mar 2015 #17

No, I don't know diddly squat about it... Blanks Mar 2015 #25

I think you missed the point entirely Xipe Totec Mar 2015 #76

We have much more to fear from humans... Blanks Mar 2015 #90

Yes, a significant EMP "if" data is unprotected. As someone else said, redundancy is key. Many RKP5637 Mar 2015 #39

If the data is secured/protected... Blanks Mar 2015 #60

Quite true, core data would be intact, but peripheral access would be destroyed/limited. RKP5637 Mar 2015 #65

You mean they haven't made smart guns yet? Jamastiene Mar 2015 #57

Your vehicle probably has an electronic ignition. eom Blanks Mar 2015 #91

Simple electronic ignitions are fairly rugged. hunter Mar 2015 #139

There are old fashioned non electronic ways around that. Jamastiene Mar 2015 #146

Forget the cars, how about the trucks and trains workinclasszero Mar 2015 #97

That's what I'm saying... Blanks Mar 2015 #105

Oh yes you are right. Just look at what happens in Florida when hurricane warnings go up workinclasszero Mar 2015 #108

Trust our poets to teach us the deeper truths. In this case, KingCharlemagne Mar 2015 #134

"In a panic, they try to pull the plug" bvar22 Mar 2015 #8

Who's to say it hasn't happened? Octafish Mar 2015 #10

I'm gonna start pronouncing it "pee-nee-yak" to sound like ENIAC and UNIVAC. nt bananas Mar 2015 #112

Beep! Beep! Beep! Beep! PEENIAC! Octafish Mar 2015 #141

Who is to say it's not happening now? seveneyes Mar 2015 #11

Yeesh MFrohike Mar 2015 #12

Agreed. Science fiction is...um, fiction. randome Mar 2015 #14

AI is not science fiction. Xithras Mar 2015 #19

If you say so MFrohike Mar 2015 #20

Is it your position that consciousness is impossible to be understood? Fumesucker Mar 2015 #24

No MFrohike Mar 2015 #35

Are you sure that consciousness is necessary for sentience? Fumesucker Mar 2015 #46

Are you sure that's relevant? MFrohike Mar 2015 #48

Interesting you should mention Chimpanzees... Fumesucker Mar 2015 #59

Not surprised MFrohike Mar 2015 #63

People a lot smarter than I am seem to think a true AI is highly likely Fumesucker Mar 2015 #69

I agree with MFrohike, for what it is worth. bemildred Mar 2015 #119

"eat you or not as the situation requires" Fumesucker Mar 2015 #131

Definitely not. bemildred Mar 2015 #133

Yup... this. TampaAnimusVortex Mar 2015 #142

Why do you think this excerpt supports your point? Just curious, just wanted to see ND-Dem Mar 2015 #79

There was a quote from one of the researchers in the last line of the piece.. Fumesucker Mar 2015 #83

That is an interesting point, about the general superiority of our unconscious minds. bemildred Mar 2015 #120

Well a lack of one would make something they'd have in common with sociopaths more specifically JonLP24 Mar 2015 #78

Yep. Productivity growth is actually fairly low at the moment, yet people are talking about the Chathamization Mar 2015 #23

At some point AI will be more powerful than humans. No doubt about it. And robots will.... Logical Mar 2015 #32

Prove that MFrohike Mar 2015 #36

LOL, So you want examples where humans have under calculated.... Logical Mar 2015 #58

No MFrohike Mar 2015 #62

Prove its not! LOL! nt Logical Mar 2015 #72

Yeah, about that MFrohike Mar 2015 #81

will humans land on mars? nt Logical Mar 2015 #106

Where'd the goalposts go? MFrohike Mar 2015 #109

Will people land on Mars? Scared to answer? Know what Mars is?? Logical Mar 2015 #110

Heh MFrohike Mar 2015 #137

LOL, so unless you have 100% proof, you don't believe anything might happen...... Logical Mar 2015 #138

This is kind of funny, in a sad way MFrohike Mar 2015 #143

Another conversation you must have...... Logical Mar 2015 #147

You really don't get it, do you? MFrohike Mar 2015 #148

LOL, I think I am....... Logical Mar 2015 #149

Cool story MFrohike Mar 2015 #150

Now you're just sounding really silly..... Logical Mar 2015 #151

Heh MFrohike Mar 2015 #152

How can you think it will not happen? It had advanced constantly! Like my question to..... Logical Mar 2015 #153

Hoo boy MFrohike Mar 2015 #154

Once again..... Logical Mar 2015 #155

Your LHC example MFrohike Mar 2015 #156

You said Logical Mar 2015 #157

Easy, killer MFrohike Mar 2015 #158

LOL, still no answer? Why ask me if I want to continue? If you want to quit just say so. Slowly..... Logical Mar 2015 #159

One question MFrohike Mar 2015 #160

So you claim you do not think at some point AI will reach a point that it is like.... Logical Mar 2015 #161

I made a claim? MFrohike Mar 2015 #162

Where did you pick up "happen soon"? Another reading problem? I am.... Logical Mar 2015 #163

Details MFrohike Mar 2015 #164

Your initial attack of my prediction was for what? You think..... Logical Mar 2015 #165

snooze MFrohike Mar 2015 #166

Who in the hell asks for proof of a technology prediction with no end date? I guess only you! You... Logical Mar 2015 #167

I'm "clueless" MFrohike Mar 2015 #168

I didn't read your post, but, simple, even for you.....Two Questions..... Logical Mar 2015 #169

I'm done being the bigger fool MFrohike Mar 2015 #170

Two Questions..... Logical Mar 2015 #171

I'm a biological machine of some sort and I'm fine with that. hunter Mar 2015 #172

"At some point"...true, and at some point the sun will be gone. "In the long run we're all dead."N/T Chathamization Mar 2015 #45

We already use computers to design chips that we couldn't think of for ourselves. Major Hogwash Mar 2015 #51

will the robots have opposable thumbs? snooper2 Mar 2015 #92

Only when it becomes self aware. Initech Mar 2015 #13

+++ 1,000 +++ n/t RKP5637 Mar 2015 #41

A machine with enough power could pursue whatever goals it was given FiveGoodMen Mar 2015 #101

The Philosophical Zombie Apocalypse bananas Mar 2015 #113

The philosophical zombie/hard problem idea is supernatural mumbo-jumbo Chathamization Mar 2015 #123

Simple solution fadedrose Mar 2015 #15

+10. Absolutely. Always works like a charm. I hope.. appalachiablue Mar 2015 #30

Fearing machines killing us is the same as fearing Aliens killing us WestCoastLib Mar 2015 #18

I wouldn't be so sure, your smartphone is far more sophisticated than a Star Trek communicator Fumesucker Mar 2015 #27

Rec this post... TeeYiYi Mar 2015 #47

I have to admit, the thought of having an intelligent conversation with AI Jamastiene Mar 2015 #56

I kind of suspect that is what drives a lot of DUers to come here.. Fumesucker Mar 2015 #61

I talk to myself as it is, so Jamastiene Mar 2015 #67

Except Siri is not thinking Egnever Mar 2015 #96

Ever had a conversation about politics with a Teabagger? Fumesucker Mar 2015 #98

Point taken. Egnever Mar 2015 #100

How do we know you are not an Artificial Intelligence messing with us??? Hmmmmm??? hunter Mar 2015 #68

... nomorenomore08 Mar 2015 #118

Three of your last four sentences are almost surely true. FiveGoodMen Mar 2015 #102

Great. No fucking flying car but we skip right to slave to evil computers. Hassin Bin Sober Mar 2015 #21

+1 appalachiablue Mar 2015 #38

AeroMobil has working prototypes and says they'll have one on the market by 2017, actually Electric Monk Mar 2015 #42

There's a comic strip that deals with this. Archae Mar 2015 #22

That's cool. Thanks for the link. hunter Mar 2015 #29

I for one welcome our new droid overlords tularetom Mar 2015 #26

I already live in a society that is 'Scary and Very Bad for People' hunter Mar 2015 #28

The project is mostly complete at this point. Welcome to the Cybernetic Civilization. GliderGuider Mar 2015 #31

What does this say about collapse? joshcryer Mar 2015 #44

Nothing. It just points out where we are right now. nt GliderGuider Mar 2015 #82

The collapse of the Roman Empire took ~150 years GliderGuider Mar 2015 #84

He is 100% correct. nt Logical Mar 2015 #33

It's evolution, baby! yallerdawg Mar 2015 #40

I don't see the problem. joshcryer Mar 2015 #43

Technological change is accelerating and the rate of change is accelerating Fumesucker Mar 2015 #49

Yeah, but everyone thinks it's bad. joshcryer Mar 2015 #52

Do you have children? Fumesucker Mar 2015 #54

Nephews and nieces. joshcryer Mar 2015 #55

I'm not sure I'll see a true AI in my lifetime but my kids more than likely will.. Fumesucker Mar 2015 #64

Most pressing issue is self-driving cars and automation. joshcryer Mar 2015 #71

I tend to agree with Musk... Fumesucker Mar 2015 #73

The problem is the US government is reactionary. joshcryer Mar 2015 #75

We're still struggling with modeling the 302 neurons of C Elegans. We're not going to get to the Chathamization Mar 2015 #70

Your Mesopotamian illustration actually isn't far off. Hosnon Mar 2015 #125

Just have William Shatner talk to it until it commits suicide. eShirl Mar 2015 #50

If we at least get a decent android (not the OS) that can cook for us Jamastiene Mar 2015 #53

Our only hope is ai RobertEarl Mar 2015 #66

Great point.... if weren't already too late. Duppers Mar 2015 #107

It would certainly be interested to the evolution biology side of things JonLP24 Mar 2015 #74

As a retired software engineer with a stong interest in AI Binkie The Clown Mar 2015 #80

It sounds just like the story of controlled fusion power... GliderGuider Mar 2015 #85

Um, fusion is coming baby! snooper2 Mar 2015 #93

Cool! Get back to me in 10 years, mkay? nt GliderGuider Mar 2015 #104

You won't be laughing in ten years, buddy. Orrex Mar 2015 #86

Part of the reason why these predictions are so silly is because we don't even understand the brain Chathamization Mar 2015 #111

The problem with AI is specificity. Binkie The Clown Mar 2015 #115

Or even the flexibility of a mouse, something still far beyond our grasp Chathamization Mar 2015 #122

On the other hand, there might not be any "there" in intelligence. hunter Mar 2015 #132

+1. nt bemildred Mar 2015 #121

K&R DeSwiss Mar 2015 #87

I think back to 20 years ago, to 1995 or thereabouts. Trillo Mar 2015 #89

Not just 'Big Corporate' interests. We all contributed. randome Mar 2015 #95

One of the reasons I stay on DU, it's fairly low bandwidth and my connection isn't always quick Fumesucker Mar 2015 #99

I understand. Trillo Mar 2015 #103

What if these future AI robots JonLP24 Mar 2015 #114

I expect this is marketing for the upcoming Avengers sequel. Marr Mar 2015 #116

Well worth the risk. nt ZombieHorde Mar 2015 #117

Like there's a choice. nt The2ndWheel Mar 2015 #130

I'm actually looking forward to retirement. stone space Mar 2015 #127

Climate change is scarier, it's happening now, and it's worse for people than AI Auggie Mar 2015 #129

I love Woz, but he's a bit wonky. So is Ray. DirkGently Mar 2015 #136

I fundamentally disagree with your assertions about "consciousness." hunter Mar 2015 #140

Consciousness is just memory? DirkGently Mar 2015 #144

That's not what I said. hunter Mar 2015 #145