The economy may hold on until November [View all]

[cthulu2016]

I have my fingers crossed, daily, that the improving economy will be a fixed idea in the public mind come November. The economy is, however, not likely to be improving come November.

In an economy with real growth mortgage rates and bond yields and the civilian labor force participation rate should not be continuing downward, which they are. It is apparent that we are no going to get any recovery quarters of 7 or 8% GDP growth (annualized), or even many new jobs above the rate of population increase.

There is an absence of contraction (which is good) but no recovery. No rebound. Litle lost ground is being made up (except in the stock market.)

And the Eurozone is, as we speak, entering recession. No merely flat, but actual GDP contraction.

But the economy in politics is a matter of perception and there is a 50-50% chance that the general sense of improving conditions will persist through November before rolling over.

Either way, none of this is the Democrat's fault in any way. There is nothing Obama could have done in the last 12 months to change things as they stand today.