Rand Paul lied about graduating from college & about being a real doctor....

[Savannahmann]

14. I base it upon the issues.

Rand is on the populist side of several issues facing us. NSA Surveillance, FBI Spying, Marijuana Legalization, and foreign wars to name a handful. Those issues enjoy wide populist support. To counter them, our candidate would have to take on other populist issues, or match Rand. Hillary the Presumptive Nominee has a long history of being on the other side of those issues.

The elections always come down the same. Forty percent vote Democratic, always have, and always will. Forty percent vote Republican, always have, and always will. The decision is from the remaining twenty percent. When they go Republican, then Republicans win, as evidenced in 2010, and 2014. When they go Democratic, we win. President Obama lost four million votes from 2008, to 2012. Romney got a million more than McCain did. These are not make believe numbers, they're the actual vote totals. Four million votes separated Romney from Obama. four more million voted for Obama than Romney.

Hillary is no Obama, so we can't realistically hope for a greater turnout than Obama enjoyed. How many of those four million voters will switch sides based upon those issues. People who see the stupidity of the prison sentences for pot? People who want the NSA and FBI out of their phones? How many people will vote for Rand based upon those issues?

What will our side do? Our side will stay the course. Afraid that if they come out against the NSA/FBI/CIA/GCHQ spying that they'll look weak on the war on Terror, or weak on crime, or weak on defense. So they'll stay hawkish. The RW Hawks won't believe it and will still vote Republican. The people for whom Privacy is a big issue may change their votes to Republican. How many can we afford to lose? If we go with President Obama's numbers, we can't afford to lose many. We didn't win those swing states by that big of a margin.

My opinion is based upon a detailed examination of the people involved. Rand, and Hillary. Positions, and issues. Public support for those issues, and voting trends. It is an opinion, and I absolutely admit that. Yet, my concerns about the Senate made almost a year before the election were born out. The Republicans were going to fight hard to win, and they were going to keep from making the mistake that torpedoed them in 2012.

Here's the next question. How many of those four million votes for President Obama were based upon that asinine Real Rape quote? If we say none, we're fools. If we say half, we're probably pretty accurate, if we say all, we're just as big as the fools who say none.

What drives the voters is the question. In 2014, it was issues. I think it's going to be issues in 2016, and Rand is on the populist side of several issues. Do we really want to underestimate that level of potential? If we go into 2016 with the idea we've already won, and the election is a mere formality because we erroneously think that the Republicans are idiots, we are going to get our asses kicked. The Republicans are winning, because they are taking the game far more seriously than we are. If you doubt that assertion, try and get a hold of Senate Majority Leader Reid. Oh wait, you can't. you'll have to search for Senate Minority Leader Reid. The Republicans enjoy a pretty significant majority in the Senate. Because we took the idea that they were stupid for granted, and ran on the idea it would be an easy victory in 2014. We lost, badly.

If we are serious, and a little lucky, we can win in 2016. If we are overconfident, and pretend that the Republicans are idiots, we will lose. Again.