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muriel_volestrangler

(106,736 posts)

82. It works pretty well for the Republican primaries; Democratic ones were messier

Mon Apr 20, 2015, 12:53 PM

Apr 2015

but big leads were enough even for the Dems.

Average of polls Jan-Jun year before primaries (ie what we're in the middle of now):

Republicans (when not an incumbent):
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/31/a-brief-history-of-primary-polling-part-i/?_r=0
1980: Reagan +11.8% over Ford
1988: Bush +15.2% over Dole
1996: Dole +38.9% over Gramm
2000: Bush 27.9% over Dole (Elizabeth)
2008: McCain -11.7% 2nd behind Giuliani - the time it doesn't predict the Republican winner.
Article written before 2012, but I suggest from this graph Romney had a lead of about +10 over Gingrich

Democrats:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/a-brief-history-of-primary-polling-part-ii/
1972: McGovern -24.3% 5th behind Muskie , who led Humphrey by 10%
1976: Carter -18.7% 12th behind George Wallace (!) who led Humphrey by 4.4%
1984: Mondale +11.2% over Glenn
1988: Dukakis -5.7% behind Hart who led Jackson by 0.1%
1992: Clinton -19% 12th behind Cuomo who led Gore by 11%
2000: Gore +33.1% over Bradley
2004: Kerry -5.9% 2nd behind Lieberman (!)
2008: Obama -15% 2nd behind Clinton

So, the nearest thing to Hillary's current lead of about +50 was 2000 - Gore leading by 33. He won the primary comfortably (and he was a member of the incumbent administration who had lost to them in the primary 8 years earlier, despite having a lead over them about a year before the primaries; pretty similar to Hillary). All other Dem leads were 15% or under (and the one that was 15% went to the wire). In the Republicans, Giuliani blew a 12% lead over McCain; all other early leaders won.

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Hillary's electability is largely political myth at this point [View all] Prism Apr 2015 OP

My gut told me. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #1

I thought running based on guts DonCoquixote Apr 2015 #3

Well the Holy Ghost had words with me through my stomach. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #6

I hope to be wrong DonCoquixote Apr 2015 #10

That possibility is with every candidate. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #12

Well.... Adrahil Apr 2015 #15

We have only one candidate running so far. Those polls will change as soon as other Candidates sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #18

I meant against the GOP Adrahil Apr 2015 #139

and therein is the problem DonCoquixote Apr 2015 #134

You think wall street prefers her over a GOP candidate? n/t Adrahil Apr 2015 #140

one feeds them quickly DonCoquixote Apr 2015 #151

Goldman-Sachs and Wall Street are hedging their bets hoping (paying) for a Clinton v Bush race. rhett o rick Apr 2015 #177

My gut told me. AlbertCat Apr 2015 #90

It's a joke. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #103

Remember last time she ran. 840high Apr 2015 #112

Yes very well. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #115

Her election in 2000 was only a cakewalk because she made it one dsc Apr 2015 #2

If Guiliani had run, I wouldn't call it a cakewalk Prism Apr 2015 #7

Ghouliani declined to run because HRC would have whupped him and he wanted ... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #14

Rudy self imploded Geronimoe Apr 2015 #77

Her 2000 Senate race was audacious. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #9

Tillis did this in NC AlbertCat Apr 2015 #92

I am not familiar with that race so it wouldn't be fair for me to comment. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #99

Rudi's poll ratings were in the low 20s at that time. His political career was over. Which is why he sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #21

Note this was the pre 911 Rudy, who announced his divorce to the media before his wife karynnj Apr 2015 #81

Based on the fact that she is popular among rank and file Democratic voters DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #4

For now Prism Apr 2015 #11

It's more than early polling that informs my thinking. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #16

For the 2008 primary, her polls ended up slightly higher than they were at this stage muriel_volestrangler Apr 2015 #50

They're not contradictory statements Prism Apr 2015 #80

"she's been out of the public eye for a few years now" was laughable even without your OP muriel_volestrangler Apr 2015 #85

I am white. SamKnause Apr 2015 #20

If you inferred that I suggested everybody will vote for Hillary DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #22

Inference; SamKnause Apr 2015 #46

I am somewhat SamKnause Apr 2015 #169

Well I respect your passion. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #171

Thanks for your reply SamKnause Apr 2015 #172

I have heard Bernie several times and appreciate his voice for the voiceless DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #186

Iraq war is sane foreign policy? eridani Apr 2015 #182

The MediCal I get as a consequence of the ACA which expanded Medicaid to single indigent adults is. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #185

I'm with you. I've had enough. 840high Apr 2015 #116

I know several African Americans who do not support her Oilwellian Apr 2015 #125

I guess that's why she is getting >90% of their vote. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #127

I am one of those African-Americans who will not rury Apr 2015 #193

Speaking of South Carolina in 2008.... LovingA2andMI Apr 2015 #198

She is the most electable candidate. For now. Autumn Apr 2015 #5

Attempting to tear down a Democrat is easy at this point. onehandle Apr 2015 #8

I'm not tearing her down Prism Apr 2015 #13

So another vote for 'Not Hillary.' onehandle Apr 2015 #17

Here you go- the not Hillary campaign in all its glory... bettyellen Apr 2015 #24

Hilarious. onehandle Apr 2015 #69

Your antagonism is uncalled for Prism Apr 2015 #37

Bah. That statement is so inflammatory it gets you thrown out of the HRC group jeff47 Apr 2015 #48

Ah, projection. onehandle Apr 2015 #52

Being undecided over a year before a primary is not a radical, hateful position. AlbertCat Apr 2015 #95

Not everyone votes phil89 Apr 2015 #60

She's the only candidate running right now. How can anyone state who their candidates are until sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #27

Hey! Chafee's running!! jeff47 Apr 2015 #49

I haven't seen any announcement from Chafee, can you post a link please? sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #55

. jeff47 Apr 2015 #58

'We are still in the exploratory committee phase'. Thanks, that I knew, he has not formally sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #154

Hillary IS electable Proud Public Servant Apr 2015 #19

If that's the best argument in her favor, I'd call that a red flag. Jester Messiah Apr 2015 #88

It was not meant to be an argument in her favor Proud Public Servant Apr 2015 #94

Likewise. [nt] Jester Messiah Apr 2015 #120

Have you seen recent polls? Double digit leads. JaneyVee Apr 2015 #23

and that by itself negates the premise that she is not electable still_one Apr 2015 #31

So what? BrainDrain Apr 2015 #109

It was close. It went to the end. Closeness means the still_one Apr 2015 #131

So, unable to read the OP? jeff47 Apr 2015 #51

I read it, and it just invalidates polls because it doesn't agree with the OPs still_one Apr 2015 #133

Really? So Clinton won the 2008 primary by more than 20 points? jeff47 Apr 2015 #138

Obviously we don't agree on what electability means still_one Apr 2015 #146

It is not only name recognition, what about Joe Biden QuestionAlways Apr 2015 #197

Good point, and I agree it is more than name recognition. However, I also think that once a still_one Apr 2015 #208

I agree, but in any case, Hillary will be difficult to beat QuestionAlways Apr 2015 #209

Will you concur that the same principle applies to Bernie Sanders? brooklynite Apr 2015 #25

Message auto-removed Name removed Apr 2015 #26

So iow, Bernie doesn't have enough money. And that, right there, is the problem. sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #29

POW! merrily Apr 2015 #34

Money rasing is a problem for all of us Geronimoe Apr 2015 #79

Dems need to make this a huge issue in this campaign. For two billion, what are they buying? sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #157

True -- but those are the rules we have to play by in 2016... brooklynite Apr 2015 #97

Why are you asking that question, you know the answer surely. We the people will give him what we sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #161

Very well, now we wait... brooklynite Apr 2015 #164

People were not aware of the poisonous influence of Special Interest money when Dean sabrina 1 Apr 2015 #167

Readily, yes. Prism Apr 2015 #38

I don;t think myth is a good word for what youre trying to describe. aikoaiko Apr 2015 #28

At this point in the 2008 race, she had a 30 point lead on the rest of the field. jeff47 Apr 2015 #54

I don't think anyone has said she can't lose the primary or general. aikoaiko Apr 2015 #61

No, polling data shows squat, because it's impossible to be accurate this early. jeff47 Apr 2015 #68

No, she didn't; perhaps you're thinking of 2006, ie the equivalent of 2014? muriel_volestrangler Apr 2015 #98

All I know is what the polls are saying now, and your assessment is counter to those polls. So are still_one Apr 2015 #30

Every bit as right as they were in 2008 merrily Apr 2015 #35

We will see, but the premise of the OP that Hillary is unelectable does NOT correlate with the polls still_one Apr 2015 #39

Point is, polls this far out are meaningless. merrily Apr 2015 #43

if that is the case then so is the statement that Hillary is unelectable? still_one Apr 2015 #91

Dodging the point again? The statement that polls this far out are meaningless is not merrily Apr 2015 #183

I do not believe she is unelectable Prism Apr 2015 #66

That is a valid point, and subject to discussion still_one Apr 2015 #93

Everthing about 2016 is mth until We all vote in 2016 lewebley3 Apr 2015 #32

What nonsense... of course she is electable. DCBob Apr 2015 #33

Juggernaut? Motown_Johnny Apr 2015 #36

It was very close. She could have won but Obama and his campaign were just too good. DCBob Apr 2015 #42

And her campaign was bad enough to blow a 30 point lead, not to mention all the other merrily Apr 2015 #44

and yet she still almost won. DCBob Apr 2015 #45

Meh. She stayed in the race well beyond the point at which she had any possiblity of winning. merrily Apr 2015 #53

If I recall correctly the caucus states were the key to Obama's victory. DCBob Apr 2015 #57

No, not only the caucus states by any means, though I do recall her saying, to Texans, that merrily Apr 2015 #62

Actually yes, the caucus states were the main reason for Obama's win. DCBob Apr 2015 #73

Thanks. Your chart proves what my Reply 53 said. merrily Apr 2015 #184

or hers was just to bad n/t Motown_Johnny Apr 2015 #89

being the presumed favorite this far in advance is rarely predictive of success reddread Apr 2015 #40

It works pretty well for the Republican primaries; Democratic ones were messier muriel_volestrangler Apr 2015 #82

one of the problems with looking backwards is you never see whats coming reddread Apr 2015 #86

"Polls," whispered a voice on the breeze. Orsino Apr 2015 #41

Myths runs wild here, we have to continue to debunked the talking points. Thinkingabout Apr 2015 #47

You are right, and I find all those who crow SheilaT Apr 2015 #56

I think she has a good chance of being our next pres gwheezie Apr 2015 #59

The same argument was also made about Barack Obama when he ran. guillaumeb Apr 2015 #63

I don't believe Secretary Clinton is unelectable Prism Apr 2015 #71

I do not feel your implied anything about her. guillaumeb Apr 2015 #75

Don't be stupid montex Apr 2015 #64

I've done none of the things you are accusing me of Prism Apr 2015 #74

best candidate? In what universe? ChairmanAgnostic Apr 2015 #199

I believe your subject line to be correct. NCTraveler Apr 2015 #65

With your ability to know the political upaloopa Apr 2015 #67

Uncalled for. Prism Apr 2015 #78

If you oppose Hillary, you are a FOX viewer RufusTFirefly Apr 2015 #188

That was a nasty immature response to the poster. rury Apr 2015 #191

I agree Khaotic Apr 2015 #70

That would all make sense if her presumptive Republican posters were crushing her in the polls. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #76

You're quoting a right wing biased site for data here... cascadiance Apr 2015 #87

Here's Huff Po: DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #96

But they have an agenda of trying to amplify the "importance" of polls, when they aren't meaningful cascadiance Apr 2015 #100

Actually they buried the current great HRC V R poll DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #102

As polls should be buried at this point... cascadiance Apr 2015 #105

Yes, that's how it may likely play out Laughing Mirror Apr 2015 #204

The only thing keeping Hillary afloat... CoffeeCat Apr 2015 #72

She only lost to Obama by a couple percentage points -- NOT a "train wreck." pnwmom Apr 2015 #83

her campaign BrainDrain Apr 2015 #111

So? Ever hear of Ronald Reagan? He tried and failed twice. We didn't stop him the 3rd and 4th times. pnwmom Apr 2015 #113

Don't forget Nixon lost and then won too. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #136

seriously???!!!! BrainDrain Apr 2015 #200

Your logic is flawed DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #201

Seriously???!!! BrainDrain Apr 2015 #206

It was an example of presidential candidates who overcame defeat. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #207

Kinda kills their argument right? LovingA2andMI Apr 2015 #202

You got that right.... BrainDrain Apr 2015 #205

Nonsequiturs strike again anamnua Apr 2015 #211

Her electability is based on her accomplishments Gman Apr 2015 #84

H 16! Gamecock Lefty Apr 2015 #101

Actually, if I may, it was NOT a cakewalk for her in New York. NOT IN THE LEAST. calimary Apr 2015 #104

POTY, POTY , I say DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #107

BS, BS I say BrainDrain Apr 2015 #118

All my family is from New York. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #121

+1 from a fellow New Yorker who's lived here longer than Hillary has. closeupready Apr 2015 #156

2008 was very unusual. MineralMan Apr 2015 #106

Great Post. Her negatives > reasons to support her. She's the Media Darling, selected FOR us. FTS NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #108

She has the best Favorability/Unfavorability ratings of all the candidates... DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #117

...^ that 840high Apr 2015 #119

The thing that is important to remember is how it will impact the primaries. Major Hogwash Apr 2015 #160

Only in the anti-Hillary posts rock Apr 2015 #110

The MEDIA wants another Bush vs Clinton battle with Bush winning this time.... Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #114

Agree in the horse race aspect but Hillary is kicking and will kick his candy ass. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #123

I imagine Jeb will STILL win a majority of the white male vote.... Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #126

Any R will Probably/ definitely win the white vote. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #130

Everyone has heard of "Reagan Democrats" but nobody wants to talk about "Clinton Republicans"... Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #135

America isn't a right wing nation and the further right they go the better for us. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #137

The funny thing is everyone knew Pappy Bush was too much of a wimp to oppose them. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #141

Yeah, he was much more malleable than Bush ll which turned out to be a bad thing for the nation. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #144

Pappy Bush was literally "spooky", what with his CIA connections. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #147

And AGAIN, Corporate Amerika wins, and we all lose, no matter who wins that "horse race"... cascadiance Apr 2015 #128

At least if HRC wins I will continue to get my Medi Cal DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #132

And with another Democrat winning, we might get more than Medi Cal (Single Payer!) cascadiance Apr 2015 #148

I support single payer but we couldn't get it when we had the House and sixty Democratic senators. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #149

She's not running to be in office now, but in 2016. Republicans haven't won congress yet then! cascadiance Apr 2015 #150

The way the House is gerrymandered it is going to be some time before we control it again. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #153

You can thank Joementum Lieberman and Blanche Lincoln for that... elzenmahn Apr 2015 #195

Really does feel like you have to get Wall Street's blessing all right. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #142

Or with Clinton winning, the banksters win either way. This is WHY the media has selected her. NYC_SKP Apr 2015 #124

If the media was really independent the Republicans would get caught in their lies. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #145

It is just spin from the corporatists who want to eliminate all primary candidates betterdemsonly Apr 2015 #122

Polls are a snapshot of what the public thinks, and right now they think she is the most electable. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2015 #129

Where are the polls measuring how someone like Sanders or Warren does against these candidates? cascadiance Apr 2015 #152

From Real Clear Politics, Clinton is blowing everybody away by double digits. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2015 #155

History shows us this is meaningless. You're just sinking in to realclearpolitics RW agenda... cascadiance Apr 2015 #159

History tells me it is a snap shot of the race now. Assuming it's useless is wishful thinking Agnosticsherbet Apr 2015 #163

Given that it has been shown to be VERY inaccurate in the past as shown by history... cascadiance Apr 2015 #166

Wishing polls were different does 't make them so. Agnosticsherbet Apr 2015 #174

Yep, it is understood that social issues HRC can talk about and not PO the corporate elites... cascadiance Apr 2015 #175

The last time she ran for president it wasn't so good d_legendary1 Apr 2015 #143

There is plenty of evidence, you just dismiss it. DanTex Apr 2015 #158

"Evidence" that doesn't hold up... cascadiance Apr 2015 #162

Of course, nothing is certain. I'm just talking "likely". DanTex Apr 2015 #165

I think more than previous elections, Democrats are increasingly resenting candidates PUSHED on them cascadiance Apr 2015 #168

Maybe. More than in 2000? I'm not sure. DanTex Apr 2015 #173

Electability is largely a myth at this point in the election cycle. Rex Apr 2015 #170

The evidence is rather stark. joshcryer Apr 2015 #176

And Jeb just leapt on the third rail followed closely by Christie: ucrdem Apr 2015 #178

I come down on the opposite side Prism Apr 2015 #194

I'm Ready For Oligarchy - Are You? - Vote HRC cantbeserious Apr 2015 #179

Of course a guy that's not a Democrat workinclasszero Apr 2015 #180

In 2008, 18 months out she was to be the anointed one awoke_in_2003 Apr 2015 #181

But hard-working, flat-broke, sleep-deprived white people support her! RufusTFirefly Apr 2015 #187

By far the most sensible OP on Hillary Clinton I have seen rury Apr 2015 #189

But but but ...Miss Cleo told us Hillary will win. L0oniX Apr 2015 #190

I think O'Malley has a very good chance if he runs. Yo_Mama Apr 2015 #192

President Hillary Clinton Laser102 Apr 2015 #196

Weak argument at best 0nirevets Apr 2015 #203

It's also the transitive argument which is a fallacy in sports DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2015 #210