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In reply to the discussion: Hillary's electability is largely political myth at this point [View all]MineralMan
(151,893 posts)It had Barack Obama. A young, black man with an outstanding personality, good ideas, and a campaign organization that did an amazing job. Had he not been in the race, we'd be talking about Hillary Clinton's second term coming to an end. But he was there and a late surge made him the nominee. Now, 7 years later, he's finishing up his second term and Hillary Clinton is currently leading the polls by a wide margin, both for the primary election and for the GE, against every potential Republican. But something's missing for 2016.
There's no Barack Obama in the race. There's nobody who has even mentioned running that has what he brought to the 2008 race. Not even close. There's an outspoken socialist from Vermont who has captured the hearts of some in the Democratic Party, but whose age and lack of familiarity across the entire country work against him. He has great ideas, but his presentation isn't on par with what Obama brought to the primary races. Personally, I think he will choose not to run, in the end. If he does run, he'll be out by Super Tuesday.
You've got O'Malley, who has the benefit of relative youth, but not the national name recognition that would give him a jumpstart. Elizabeth Warren isn't running. Lincoln Chaffee isn't even on most people's horizon and was a Republican for far too long to give him the support of long-time Democrats.
Who else? Biden? He'll be a staunch Clinton supporter and won't run to win the presidency. If he runs in the primaries, he'll take a few percentage points away from the other challengers, but will not really challenge Clinton.
I don't see any challenger capable of erasing Clinton's popularity among rank and file Democrats, women, minorities, and others. I don't see a Barack Obama out there among the potential challengers. That's why I think that Hillary Clinton will take the nomination going away. Frankly, she doesn't really have any challengers.
I'm not seeing DU championing anyone to challenge Clinton, either. Instead, those who don't like her are just repeating the same talking points that have been used for years. In the meantime, Hillary Clinton appears to have learned from 2008, and looks like someone who will not repeat her campaign errors from that year.
An early, even very large lead can be overcome. Obama did it. But Obama's not running, and he'll be endorsing Hillary Clinton quite early, I'm sure. There's no Barack Obama in the 2016 race, not even on the horizon. There's just not.