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BrotherIvan

(9,126 posts)

111. It is almost statistically impossible in the electoral college for a Republican to win

Fri May 1, 2015, 11:42 AM

May 2015

Here is an excellent analysis that I read at the time about "The Blue Wall"

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/20/1346224/-GOP-Columnist-The-VERY-Bad-News-FOR-THE-GOP-in-the-GOP-s-Midterm-Victory

?1416509181

The Blue Wall is a block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate can realistically hope to win. On Election Day that block added New Hampshire to its number and Virginia is shifting At the outset of any Presidential campaign, a minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win. If Virginia joins New Hampshire that number will be 270 out of 270.

To win a GOP candidate has to win all nine “tossup” state and one solidly Blue state. Thus, in the next, and into the foreseeable future, Presidential elections will be decided in the Democratic Primary. What are the chances that a Republican candidate capable of appealing to the increasingly right wing GOP will appeal to enough Democrats to win in tossup and Blue states?

This is so important for people to understand, I might make an OP out of it.

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If there's no way Bernie can win [View all] hootinholler Apr 2015 OP

Strawman rock Apr 2015 #1

Not a strawman just a question hootinholler Apr 2015 #7

Are we supposed to pretend he is? MaggieD Apr 2015 #33

Exactly MaggieD Apr 2015 #31

I had noticed rock Apr 2015 #45

Odd post for someone who called Warren and Obama dishonest, liars, etc. merrily Apr 2015 #78

I hope people click that link MaggieD Apr 2015 #86

I hope they click as well or just read this post. merrily Apr 2015 #90

See the LOL there? MaggieD Apr 2015 #93

He can win. Nothing is set in stone, see 2008. morningfog Apr 2015 #2

Reminds me of goofy parents fadedrose Apr 2015 #3

Pretty amusing, isn't it? djean111 Apr 2015 #4

I think you got it figured out Hoot madokie Apr 2015 #5

lol NCTraveler Apr 2015 #97

I'm just glad someone who has the potential to change the debate mmonk Apr 2015 #6

There is no way he can win, but him running is a good thing for many reasons Renew Deal Apr 2015 #8

What do you base that prediction on? Also, are you referring to the nomination battle or the KingCharlemagne Apr 2015 #60

Well, he'll be running in the Dem primary against her Erich Bloodaxe BSN Apr 2015 #9

Seems to me that the only ones tearing down candidates here MaggieD Apr 2015 #29

Of course it seems like that to you. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Apr 2015 #34

Can you provide some examples of people.... MaggieD Apr 2015 #37

I can't provide any examples you can't find for yourself. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Apr 2015 #39

There aren't any people bashing Bernie MaggieD Apr 2015 #41

I see a little here and there of reactionary comments about Bernie, but very few and nothing NoJusticeNoPeace Apr 2015 #51

+100000000 MaggieD Apr 2015 #52

Actually, in the day since you posted this comment, I've read 3 or 4 Bernie bashing threads. Erich Bloodaxe BSN Apr 2015 #89

Post links to them, please. MineralMan May 2015 #110

I really think you need to come up with a few examples--or risk being disregarded. MADem Apr 2015 #53

You yourself have contended on numerous occasions Art_from_Ark Apr 2015 #75

Got a link for that accusation? MaggieD Apr 2015 #88

Are you multiple people posting under the same name and don't know what the others are posting? Art_from_Ark May 2015 #103

The post you linked to says nothing of the sort MaggieD May 2015 #109

That assertion is based on Bernie running as a third party Gothmog May 2015 #104

Link? MaggieD Apr 2015 #87

There were some threads a long time back urging Sanders to run as third party candidate Gothmog May 2015 #105

I second that! FarPoint Apr 2015 #76

I don't think Bernie can win Dem2 Apr 2015 #10

Have faith - he has the issues and people all over the country have been listening to him talk jwirr Apr 2015 #22

If everyone who "generally agrees with everything he says" but doesn't think he's electible Maedhros Apr 2015 #56

I don't know who else will be on the primary ballot Dem2 Apr 2015 #58

funny how that works frylock Apr 2015 #61

If he wins the primary, he wins the general BrotherIvan Apr 2015 #82

If Bernie is the nominee, I will support him and I will hope that he wins the general Gothmog May 2015 #106

It is almost statistically impossible in the electoral college for a Republican to win BrotherIvan May 2015 #111

The Democratic Blue Wall requires a viable and competitive candidate Gothmog May 2015 #112

It's impossible to say this early in the game who can win gollygee Apr 2015 #11

issues & actions are the things that should matter /nt think Apr 2015 #12

There is a large element of fear at play. Enthusiast Apr 2015 #13

Fear of what? MaggieD Apr 2015 #35

Clinton surrogates have argued for no primary election and going straight to coronation. AtomicKitten Apr 2015 #59

I'm with you. Enthusiast Apr 2015 #66

Pssst...this is a political blog. We talk about politics here. brooklynite Apr 2015 #14

Because they are telling the truth. JaneyVee Apr 2015 #15

I'm glad he's in and I hope there are more. onehandle Apr 2015 #16

Corporatists want to win ...no surprise. L0oniX Apr 2015 #17

I hope Sanders wants to win. NCTraveler Apr 2015 #98

+1 blkmusclmachine Apr 2015 #18

Discussions about who can or cannot win an election are MineralMan Apr 2015 #19

1980 Recursion Apr 2015 #20

Yes, Carter presiding over an economic downturn and high interest rates had jeff47 Apr 2015 #43

Bradley Recursion Apr 2015 #44

I said liberal. You listed two conservatives. (nt) jeff47 Apr 2015 #47

Bingo LondonReign2 Apr 2015 #46

So true. When they win, it's proof that they're great. Marr Apr 2015 #65

You are leaving out Republican treachery in that 1980 scenario Fumesucker Apr 2015 #80

No one can predict who will win Geronimoe Apr 2015 #21

Yeah I hear that a lot LordGlenconner Apr 2015 #57

Hillary has already failed to "seal the deal" in a very real way. So she feels vulnerable. nt Romulox Apr 2015 #23

I like Bernie (and have for many years now) deutsey Apr 2015 #24

They fear competition and scrutiny. Orsino Apr 2015 #25

Our local right-wing newspaper has been running anti-Hillary cartoons every day for a year. Chipper Chat Apr 2015 #26

Bernie scares the Oligarchs. A tidal wave of public support for Sanders NorthCarolina Apr 2015 #27

You don't have to be a Clinton supporter to realize that MaggieD Apr 2015 #28

They probably think that if they keep saying it it will come true! Lmao! darkangel218 Apr 2015 #30

Until he raises enough money to be competitive, procon Apr 2015 #32

See: Obama, 2007 LondonReign2 Apr 2015 #48

OK, that wasn't my question, but lets do a brief recap: procon Apr 2015 #50

Which Senator gave a speech that was viewed to the point of crashing a website? Exilednight Apr 2015 #83

OK, I'll explain. procon Apr 2015 #94

Let me explain. It wasn't team Bernie, it was the Exilednight Apr 2015 #100

I'm not making that claim. Despite protestations otherwise I don't think winning is his plan. stevenleser Apr 2015 #36

I agree MaggieD Apr 2015 #38

Image does matter Hutzpa Apr 2015 #40

The one I've heard is he's too old. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #42

He's clearly in command of his wits, so I'm not seeing that as very persuasive. winter is coming Apr 2015 #62

It depends on his getting the young people excited. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #63

I think his ideas will likely do that. Time will tell. n/t winter is coming Apr 2015 #68

I think he needs to be presented as the next FDR and Teddy combined. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #70

Bob Dole is still kicking around despite all of the "Bob Dole is so old,.." jokes. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #67

The same red herring was posed when Kucinich ran in the past Orrex Apr 2015 #49

The Third Way would greatly prefer a republican President rather than a liberal democrat Zorra Apr 2015 #54

Years ago I heard that DC wants the choice to be between Authoritarian Right and Libertarian Right. Spitfire of ATJ Apr 2015 #64

I do not care if DonCoquixote Apr 2015 #55

He's got my vote in the primary Aerows Apr 2015 #69

Things that make you scratch your head and say 'hmmmmm." hifiguy Apr 2015 #71

Seriously what else have they got? Warren Stupidity Apr 2015 #72

About $2.5 billion I'm told... Fumesucker Apr 2015 #81

That's what they want, but they don't have it. I find it Exilednight Apr 2015 #84

Kind of funny, as it is up for sale as well. Both seem to be correct. nt. NCTraveler Apr 2015 #99

kick Zorra Apr 2015 #73

I don't think Bernie can win, but he can certianly influence the policy debate bhikkhu Apr 2015 #74

Ah, Jesus Hussein Christ. NanceGreggs Apr 2015 #77

It's always a pleasure when you show up hootinholler Apr 2015 #92

Good post Gothmog May 2015 #108

Because they still believe that "Not As Bad" is the path to victory..however hollow. Tierra_y_Libertad Apr 2015 #79

I like and admire Bernie but I doubt that he can raise the funds necessary to win a general Gothmog Apr 2015 #85

Mr. Sanders doesn't scare anyone, he's too nice a guy. But he'll be an 'also ran' underahedgerow Apr 2015 #91

Hillary supporter here. Never made that claim. nt. NCTraveler Apr 2015 #95

My heart goes out to the poor little Sanders supporters here. NCTraveler Apr 2015 #96

It is unlikely he will win the general or primary. hrmjustin Apr 2015 #101

Just means we've got a Horse Race and a Primary...Go Bernie !!! libdem4life Apr 2015 #102

Well, I'll see you at the convention and we'll compare notes. Adrahil May 2015 #107