"I know Bernie can't win, but..."

[MineralMan]

235. As far as I can tell, everyone on DU likes Senator Sanders. A lot.

I know that I do, and I'll vote for him in the primary if his name is on my ballot. That said, I'm also an avid follower of electoral politics and understand how this stuff works. My experience says that Bernie Sanders will not even be in the picture at the national convention in 2016. I could be wrong, but I doubt it very, very much.

I'll go so far as to predict that he doesn't win a single primary election, pretty much like Dennis Kucinich, who I also like very much. Sanders will have many very vocal supporters at places like DU, but the primary voters won't behave as those supporters would like. I'll caucus for Senator Sanders in Minnesota. Our precinct caucuses are on Super Tuesday, March 1. I'll vote for him in our caucus straw poll. I'll caucus for him at our district conventions, too. I like him that much. Those district conventions are where the delegates to our state convention are selected. The state convention is where the delegates to the national convention are selected. Here's what I predict:

At our precinct caucuses, Hillary Clinton will get a large majority of the delegates to the district conventions. At the district conventions, Hillary Clinton will get a large majority of the delegates to the state convention. At the state convention, Hillary Clinton will get a large majority of delegates to the national convention.

Our primary election will be later in the year. By the time it comes around, I doubt very, very much that Bernie Sanders name will be on the ballot. I believe he will drop out of the race after the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, having won no primaries or caucus majorities. He will then make his support for Hillary Clinton very clear as the primary season continues.

That's my prediction. It has nothing to do with how I feel about Senator Sanders and his positions. I support him and those positions. But I know Minnesota DFL politics. I also know California politics, having lived there up until 2004. Support for Hillary Clinton will lead her to having almost all delegates from both states at the Democratic national convention. If, as I predict, Senator Sanders wins no primary elections, he will have few or no delegates at that convention.

Those are the realities of how presidential candidates are selected in the Democratic Party. So, in November, 2016, I expect to see Hillary Clinton on the ballot as the official Democratic candidate. I will cast my vote for her, since I always vote for Democrats.

Might I be wrong? That's possible. If I am, and Senator Sanders is on that ballot, I will gladly and cheerfully vote for him. I will have campaigned for him, too, and canvassed for him in my precinct, along with for every other Democratic candidate. Will I be wrong? I doubt it very much, indeed.