General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: The rhetoric around "only Hillary can win!" is bad enough. [View all]MineralMan
(151,281 posts)primary campaign. She's not afraid of his entry into the race. Anyone who says that is not paying attention to reality.
Bernie Sanders will be a strong asset to the primary race. He will present his ideas and positions strongly. Primary voters will listen to them. They'll also listen to what Hillary Clinton and any other candidates who actually enter and campaign. Then, they'll decide who to vote for.
Those decisions will be based on many factors, including their assessment of how each candidate will do in the general election. Primary voters are not really just ideologues. Most who bother to vote in primaries are reasonably savvy about electoral politics. That's one of the reasons turnouts are so low for primary elections. People who don't care don't vote in primaries, for the most part.
You can expect to hear Hillary Clinton agree with Senator Sanders on most issues. There will be some differences, but not as many as some seem to think. Clinton has many people on her side already. Many of those were for her in 2008. They will probably be for her in 2016, too. And her supporters will turn out to vote in their state primary elections.
Sanders has a tough job in trying to overcome her popularity with primary voters. Can he do it? I have no idea, really. Looking back at prior Presidential races, which date back in my experience to 1960, it seems unlikely to me that Sanders will end up as the nominee. Frankly, I can't see a path to that so far.
Supporters of Senator Sanders will be tested in the primaries. Can they turn out enough primary voters in enough states to overcome Clinton's existing supporters? Can they convert enough supporters of Hillary Clinton to their camp? That's the real question. I'm not sure they can, frankly. Looking at my own state of Minnesota, I doubt that Sanders will win here in the primaries. I'll be caucusing for him and leading caucuses in his name in the district conventions where I will be a delegate. I don't expect that support to convince enough people, though, to get him to the top at the MN State Convention, though. That's based on my previous years of being a delegate and caucus leader in my precinct.
The process will proceed. The same people I've seen involved with that process will be there again in 2016. I know them pretty well. Right now, I can safely say that Hillary Clinton will almost certainly get Minnesota's delegates to the National Convention. I don't see a way to change that, although I will support Senator Sanders at the precinct caucus and district convention levels.
Many people seem to think there will be a huge gap between Sanders' and Clinton's positions. I don't think so, for the most part. I think they'll both be saying much the same thing about most issues. TPP may be one where they differ, but I'm not even sure of that. On almost all other issues, they'll be very close in what they say.
It's not as simple as it may seem for Bernie Sanders. He's on a difficult path. I believe the turning point in that path will come on Super Tuesday, March 1, 2016. We (and he) will know whether he has any chance of being he nominee by then.