A New Poll Finds JOHN McCAIN IN REAL TROUBLE, Both In The Primary And The General [View all]

[Segami]

"....If PPP is right, McCain is in real danger of being denied renomination, and Team Red could very well lose this seat in November with or without him...."

PPP surveys both the GOP primary and general elections in Arizona, and let's just say they don't exactly bring good news for John McCain. McCain, who is seeking a sixth term, has never had a great relationship with his party's base, and he posts a terrible 41-50 approval rating with GOP primary voters. So far McCain doesn't have a credible intra-party challenge, but PPP takes a look at a few hypothetical matchups. While McCain's ahead in all of them, his leads are not robust:

• 40-39 vs. Rep. David Schweikert

• 42-40 vs. Rep. Matt Salmon

• 44-31 vs. state Sen. Kelli Ward

• 48-27 vs. 2014 gubernatorial candidate Christine Jones


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/mccain-in-big-trouble-for-gop-primary.html

It's never a good sign for an incumbent to be far from 50 percent against lesser-known primary opponents, especially when a majority of your own party's voters already say they don't like you. Still, there are a few problems for anti-McCain Republicans. Arizona doesn't have a runoff, so if two or more notable candidates go up against the incumbent, they could split the vote enough to secure him renomination with just a plurality. Ward hasn't committed to anything but she has formed an exploratory committee, and she might not be willing to get out of the way if a stronger contender gets in. What's more, she's also barely known (she has a 12-15 statewide favorable rating) and she hasn't exactly impressed well-funded conservative groups who'd like to unseat McCain. (Last year, Ward held a hearing focusing on whether non-existent "chemtrails" are poisoning the air, an idea that's only embraced by conspiracy theorists.) Ward simply might not be strong enough to beat even a weak McCain, who is still a formidable campaigner. In a perfect world for anti-McCain forces, Ward would stay out and Salmon would get in. After spending months showing little interest in taking on the incumbent, Salmon has started to change his tune a bit, recently telling The Hill "I'm not saying that I'm in. I'm not saying that I'm not in." Salmon, who served as the GOP's unsuccessful 2002 gubernatorial nominee, already has a healthy 40-12 favorability score with primary voters, but who knows if he'll actually run.


If Salmon sits it out, don't expect his friend and fellow congressman, David Schweikert, to take his place. Schweikert hasn't officially said no, but he sounds extremely unlikely to pull the trigger. Schweikert recently said that his wife is against a Senate bid, and he "would like to keep her around." Christine Jones also seems more interested in running for the House, which is just as well for her given how poorly she polls here. So far, no credible Democrats have shown much interest in running in conservative Arizona, but PPP finds that Team Blue would have a good chance to put this Senate seat in play whether or not McCain advances to November. McCain is even more unpopular with the general electorate than he is with his own party, sporting an ugly 36-51 statewide approval score. PPP tested him against 2012 Senate nominee Richard Carmona, 2014 gubernatorial nominee Fred DuVal, and Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema.

• McCain 40, Carmona 34

• McCain 40, DuVal 36

• McCain 42, Kirkpatrick 36

• McCain 42, Sinema 36

They also tested McCain's potential primary foes against just Carmona:

• Jones 36, Carmona 42

• Salmon 43, Carmona 35

• Schweikert 39, Carmona 39

• Ward 36, Carmona 39

cont'

http://dailykos.com/story/2015/05/05/1382640/-A-new-poll-finds-John-McCain-in-real-trouble