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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #87)

Mon May 11, 2015, 09:22 AM

158. Here you go:



http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/07/why-cant-we-all-get-along-challenges-ahead-for-bipartisan-cooperation/

Poll done in April of Democrats only:

Initial TPA Ballot
Q5. From what you have heard, do you… granting President Obama trade promotion authority?

Strongly support 25%
Somewhat support 39%
Somewhat oppose 13%
Strongly oppose 8%
Don't know 14%

SUPPORT 64%
OPPOSE 21%


Initial TPP Ballot
Q7. From what you have heard, do you… President Obama's proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement?

Strongly support 20%
Somewhat support 31%
Somewhat oppose 10%
Strongly oppose 8%
Don't know 30%

SUPPORT 52%
OPPOSE 18%


http://static1.squarespace.com/static/54e2b1d1e4b043f1c9a2a9ed/t/55424db8e4b04641a244468d/1430408665168/trade-poll.pdf



68% of republicans (74% of 'conservative republicans') will hold a pro-fast track vote against their candidate compared to 17% of Democrats.

I wonder who the 11% that want their politician to support fast track.

http://fasttrackpoll.info/

Poll: conservative and moderate republicans oppose fast track (for the TPP) by a ratio of 85 percent or higher.

On the question of fast-track authority, 62 percent of respondent opposed the idea, with 43 percent “strongly” opposing it. Broken down by political affiliation, only Democrats that identify as “liberal” strongly favor the idea. Predictably, a strong Republican majority oppose giving the president such authority, with both conservative and moderates oppose it by a ratio of 85 percent or higher.

http://www.ibtimes.com/trans-pacific-partnership-tpp-poll-only-strongest-obama-supporters-want-him-have-fast-track-1552039

My guess is that there are many polls on TPP and fast track being conducted now since the latter is before congress. The only one I have seen released recently is the second one above.

... a "rank-and-file" Democrat who doesn't really know what is actually in the TPP, would almost naturally say "Yes" if it were a simple yes-or-no question."

I tend to agree although I think many believe that most Democrats would usually answer "No" given a negative view of past trade agreements. Democrats almost always poll as more supportive of trade agreements, international diplomacy in general, foreign aid, etc. than republicans who tend to oppose almost all forms of international involvement, other than bombing and invasion.

As far as a knowledge of TPP, 30% in that poll said they did not know enough to offer an opinion. Democrats who did offer an opinion supported TPP 52% to 18% - which is consistent with the 1st poll above.

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