Opinion: Countdown to the stock-market Crash of 2016 is ticking louder

[Binkie The Clown]

52. "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns"

Consider Alexander Dana Noyes, financial columnist for the New York Times, who began predicting a major stock market crash in 1927. All through 1927, 1928, and right up to October 1929, he kept right on pointing out that market was dangerously over blown. He didn't say when, but he did say "soon". He was ridiculed and call a doomsayer. In retrospect, his reasoning was sound, even though his timing was a little off. And, BTW, the crash did happen.

The other thing that is consistent is those who keep right on saying that the market can only go up, never down. They tend to be right day after day, week after week, month after month. And then one day, all of the sudden, they are spectacularly wrong.

That's why I say only time will tell. Past history will NOT tell. Time will tell. As to whether there will be a crash in 2016 specifically, a person would have to be a first class fool to say there will be, and an equally first class fool to say there won't be. However, with each passing day that a bubble grows, it becomes more likely to pop than not to pop.