At least 17 years!

[Scootaloo]

252. Can you see centrist dems jumping for any of those clowns like they did for Bush in '00?

I can't, if only because of the once burned, twice shy thing.

Centrist republicans? if there are any, I think we can basically count on them to run straight-ticket.

So that leaves... nonvoters, "independents," and "undecideds."

For the discussion we can just assume nonvoters will keep nonvoting.

The other two, well, what motivates them? For the Independents, it's largely a disgust with the "politics as usual" thing. This is the breeding ground of that American philosophy, "the parties are the same!" and I do not think that they will be particularly swayed by a big money corporate Democrat vs. a big money corporate lunatic. In fact given the option they will probably go for the republican - not for ideology reasons, but that old "it's time for a change" canard.

You want the independents? You have to give them something they want. I don't know if sanders can do that, but I think if anyone in this race can, he'd be the one.

Undecideds tend to not be very affected by the advertisement oversaturation - if they were, they would be "decideds." A great number of these people tend to waffle around until after the debates; undecideds who haven't figured it out by the conclusion of the debates are generally hte sort of person who will just vote for hair or whatever their car radio said just as they pull into the polling station; they're basically lost causes.