General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: At least 17 years! [View all]jeff47
(26,549 posts)Barring a scandal or other similar unpredictable event. Or an Al Gore level of campaign incompetence.
The Democratic candidate's got 257 electoral votes already. The Republican has 149. Those are the electoral votes from firmly "blue" and "red" states.
The Democratic candidate needs 1 large or 2 small "swing" states to win. For example, we did quite well in VA recently, and that would win it for the Democrat. Even in 2014 we did well in statewide VA races (Gov. was a gimme due to scandal, but US Senate wasn't easy). Or repeat Obama's two easy wins of Ohio. We've also done well statewide in CO and IA recently, and those two would win it too. There's lots of ways for the Democrat to get to 270.
The Republican candidate needs all 10 "swing" states, and needs to turn one "blue" state. That will not happen without the caveat above. 2016 is the Democratic nominee's race to lose. The Republican can not win without help from the Democratic candidate.
That's why the Republican field is nothing but crazy. The Republicans sane enough to count know this one is not winnable.
(This doesn't mean we can sit on our asses in 2016.)