General Discussion

DemocratSinceBirth

(101,843 posts)

174. "But Mrs. Hillary Clinton heading the Democratic ticket in 2016 is a landslide loser."

Mon May 25, 2015, 01:22 PM

May 2015

The oddsmakers who have to pay out their own money when they lose think otherwise:

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=791149

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

"Oddsmakers have all of the same information at their disposal but have much of an incentive to predict things accurately, because large piles of money are at stake. "

And she leads in all the polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

The evidence suggests that the oddsmakers who have to give away their own money if they lose predict she will win and the polls indicate she would defeat all her presumptive Republican nominees.

I like her hand...

BTW, she has a B A from Wellesley and JD from the most prestigious law school in the nation; Yale. I wish I had her resume. She would have gone far if she never met Bill Clinton.

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Serious question...does anyone really think Bernie Sanders would win a general election? [View all] BluegrassDem May 2015 OP

I remember when the conventional wisdom was that Bill Clinton stood no chance against Bush Sr. Nye Bevan May 2015 #1

Thank you... Paka May 2015 #7

Reminds me of 1972 1939 May 2015 #31

I don't have to talk to those in my circle. Paka May 2015 #35

Which still isn't a representative sample of the potential voting pool mythology May 2015 #63

This is not 1972 - we have been through 30+ years of trickle down. That will be remembered in jwirr May 2015 #109

In 1972 1939 May 2015 #140

Oh, I am well aware of the times and the results of the election since I worked in McGovern's jwirr May 2015 #150

I am also 74 and agree with you. Chipper Chat May 2015 #89

Polling has Bush/Clinton within 1 pt in Florida. brooklynite May 2015 #112

And neither one has started to campaign. 1939 May 2015 #143

The Presidential won't be dependent on the State Party... brooklynite May 2015 #147

Pennsylvania has gone Democratic the last six elections. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #149

I think that the tone in the USA is one that makes it possible for that grumpy old man to win. He is jwirr May 2015 #105

And 1939 May 2015 #146

People are putting those things on the internet. They (I) am the electorate. jwirr May 2015 #151

Yes, but 1939 May 2015 #166

And of course that is the question. jwirr May 2015 #171

Also helped that Perot got 19 million votes. NuclearDem May 2015 #48

Res ipsa loquitur DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #148

Racial Pepsi-Cola? Orrex May 2015 #182

Bill Clinton was one of the most saavy political figures in the last 50 years,,, brooklynite May 2015 #111

a lot of people really think he could win. his ideas *should* win, but the people who think he dionysus May 2015 #2

We did not ELECT GWB twice and even once (2004) is still contested. - nt KingCharlemagne May 2015 #56

It would appear we did. Agschmid May 2015 #65

You know what? You're 100% right. GWB received more votes nationally and in Flroida KingCharlemagne May 2015 #73

Did you read my post, or did you just get frustrated and respond? Agschmid May 2015 #74

No, I read your post. You think Bush actually won Florida in 2000. Whatever you've KingCharlemagne May 2015 #79

Oh I said that? I missed it... Agschmid May 2015 #92

Gore got 500,000+ more popular votes than Bush did nationwide Art_from_Ark May 2015 #118

Popular votes don't cut it. Agschmid May 2015 #120

So in other words Art_from_Ark May 2015 #197

We don't. Agschmid May 2015 #208

Pretty clear exposition, if you ask me. pangaia May 2015 #78

Possibly Sherman A1 May 2015 #3

I think he could win the general election. SheilaT May 2015 #4

Certainly. People are tired of the same old crap. PowerToThePeople May 2015 #5

Exactly TexasBushwhacker May 2015 #122

Bernie does. bluesbassman May 2015 #6

No he doesn't. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #17

Nice. Guess we have Clinton supporters calling Senator Sanders a liar now. bluesbassman May 2015 #28

I can't wait to hear their pathetic red-baiting shit after Sanders knocks her off in Iowa KingCharlemagne May 2015 #59

Can't wait is right! InAbLuEsTaTe May 2015 #110

What makes you think I'm a Clinton supporter? Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #87

This message was self-deleted by its author darkangel218 May 2015 #103

In order for the Republicans to win... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #163

Since the war, only one party has won after 8 years in power, in 1988. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #192

Voting has never been as polarized and demographically driven as it is now... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #199

Let's hope they're right and I'm wrong N.T. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #200

I am painfully aware of the three term jinx. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #201

Another feature of that page is that Bernie Sanders isn't given any chance muriel_volestrangler May 2015 #204

Odds can change...I don't believe Hillary or any other Democrat is inevitable. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #205

Post removed Post removed May 2015 #68

Yes, I do. Scootaloo May 2015 #8

Because he's "concerned." [n/t] Maedhros May 2015 #195

Well I'm concerned about all those goats traipsing over bridges willy-nilly Scootaloo May 2015 #196

Yes - they should instead throw out one or more fishing lines, baited with lures or bait fish, Maedhros May 2015 #229

I don't think he could win, but... TreasonousBastard May 2015 #9

I doubt it but who knows at this point gwheezie May 2015 #10

All the John states John Kerry won plus Ohio Cheese Sandwich May 2015 #11

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bernie pick up something in the south. Vinca May 2015 #57

...and Ohio elected and re-elected John Kasich; Wisconsin elected and re-elected Scott Walker brooklynite May 2015 #116

Have you ever watched a steel mill sit empty for 10 years and rust away in front of your face? Cheese Sandwich May 2015 #152

All those Reoublicans were elected in those ten years... brooklynite May 2015 #155

This message was self-deleted by its author Cheese Sandwich May 2015 #164

Wouldn't a lot of those aging issues fly in FL too? (nt) Jackpine Radical May 2015 #129

Yeah Florida is probably the oldest state Cheese Sandwich May 2015 #137

Yes, I do Marrah_G May 2015 #12

sure, if he can beat Hillary quaker bill May 2015 #13

Yes, it is technically true that if he can beat Hillary then he can win the general election. N.T. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #23

so, no worries then. quaker bill May 2015 #32

About Sanders, or DU? Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #33

Been here for a primary season? quaker bill May 2015 #69

This message was self-deleted by its author Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #14

They said this black guy could never win... DiverDave May 2015 #15

The Black guy, and his supporters, convienced enough Dems ... JoePhilly May 2015 #113

Huh? They most certainly did attack Obama supporters DiverDave May 2015 #203

I think some people genuinely do. I find this kind of depressing. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #16

You want reality based? Erich Bloodaxe BSN May 2015 #19

Technically that is true, yes. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #21

you are not making sense quaker bill May 2015 #34

Huh? AgingAmerican May 2015 #134

He is saying he can't beat Hillary muriel_volestrangler May 2015 #158

Yeah, and she was supposed to be inevitable 6 years ago, too. Warren DeMontague May 2015 #25

8 years ago, Obama was already competitive in the polls muriel_volestrangler May 2015 #37

There's a recent PPP poll from Washington hootinholler May 2015 #49

You mean just in Washington State? muriel_volestrangler May 2015 #62

Yes. The national poll was a few days after the announcement hootinholler May 2015 #85

Obama won by discarding national polls during the primary. State by state is the Exilednight May 2015 #101

John Kerry was the only one who would win quaker bill May 2015 #30

So somehow you think that being on DU takes us out of the real world and we cannot possibly jwirr May 2015 #117

Serious answer - I think he has a BETTER chance at winning a general than the primary. Erich Bloodaxe BSN May 2015 #18

Completely agree. n/t MadrasT May 2015 #86

Did anyone really think that a peanut farmer from Plains Georgia OutNow May 2015 #20

Yes, in both cases. N.T. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #22

Frankly, any Democratic was going to win in 1976 TexasBushwhacker May 2015 #124

I think people want a leader who actually leads, who isn't afraid to take actual positions on actual Warren DeMontague May 2015 #24

We have a long history of candidates being a longshot, but who have ideas the people want.... dmosh42 May 2015 #26

When people get to know him they love him. Kalidurga May 2015 #27

I think our "David" has a good chance to defeat the Goliath we are against. tiredtoo May 2015 #29

As things stand now? No. DFW May 2015 #36

"prickly, grumpy old man" is an ageist ad hominem HereSince1628 May 2015 #38

Yet that's the label many here used about McCain in 2008 Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin May 2015 #161

It was also an ageist ad hominem then HereSince1628 May 2015 #198

+1 And I don't find Bernie to be prickly or grumpy. Live and Learn May 2015 #228

No doubt in my mind madokie May 2015 #39

"It is better to vote for what you want and lose than to vote for what you dont want and win" CentralMass May 2015 #40

"It is better to vote to get half of what you want than vote for what you want and get none" brooklynite May 2015 #154

I think he has a better chance than Hillary. Many seem to Exilednight May 2015 #41

The times they are a-changin' - happened in the 60's & its happening now. Divernan May 2015 #42

He could. But I don't think the DNC & the PTB will allow him to get the nom. RiverLover May 2015 #43

What if anything can we do to get rid of the superdelagates? jwirr May 2015 #119

Have enough people vote for him that the 20% superdelegate vote is irrelevant. /nt RiverLover May 2015 #218

Well I guess we are working for that. jwirr May 2015 #219

I believe he could. I believe whoever we nominate would beat any of the idiotic rethugs. we can do it May 2015 #44

Sure, if this is the election in which social media outpaces the mainstream media. I also like ... Scuba May 2015 #45

Absolutely hootinholler May 2015 #46

That is how democracy is supposed to work, isn't it? Anybody can win? nt bemildred May 2015 #47

Not really hack89 May 2015 #71

LOL. Thanks. nt bemildred May 2015 #72

Only the person with the most votes. Donald Ian Rankin May 2015 #88

Bernie is a very experienced politician, elected many times, no? bemildred May 2015 #93

"I'm going to preface this preachy scolding with a bullshit question." cherokeeprogressive May 2015 #50

I don't think he can win the election no GusBob May 2015 #51

You are wrong - when people get to know him they love him. Where do you see humor as a part of jwirr May 2015 #121

Yes. sendero May 2015 #52

depends on your economic/percentage status. reddread May 2015 #53

People get excited to go to casinos and give away money Renew Deal May 2015 #54

Serious question...does anyone really think Hillary Clinton would win a general election? - nt KingCharlemagne May 2015 #55

She'd lose; "donations" to CFF would come to a screeching halt. Divernan May 2015 #77

So Bernie can win, but Hillary can't? Is this bizarro world?!? Metric System May 2015 #94

My, aren't you precious? - nt KingCharlemagne May 2015 #123

The oddsmaker who have to pay out their own money when they lose do DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #167

Your post betrays a singularly jejeune notion of what oddsmakers and bookies KingCharlemagne May 2015 #172

I don't believe my post was jejune. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #176

You implied that bookies and oddsmakers actually paid with their own money, when the reality is that KingCharlemagne May 2015 #177

It was a quote from a gaming site, hence the quotation marks I used, ergo: DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #179

HRC will motivate the misogynist base of the Republicans to come out to vote like few KingCharlemagne May 2015 #185

Oddsmakers don't predict the election. They predict the betting. Jim Lane May 2015 #227

I understand that... DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #234

Yes ProudToBeBlueInRhody May 2015 #175

The news will not give him equal time. The end. patricia92243 May 2015 #58

One can't know. That's one of the reasons we have presidential primaries. Smarmie Doofus May 2015 #60

I do not think that Bernie Sanders will be viable in a general election Gothmog May 2015 #61

Yes, I do rock May 2015 #64

Yes Bernie can win newfie11 May 2015 #66

Some ageism in there no? Agschmid May 2015 #67

I am voting for him. I don't put my wet finger in the wind to see what everyone else is doing, that GoneFishin May 2015 #70

Tell you? 99Forever May 2015 #75

No randr May 2015 #76

"prickly, grumpy old man" handmade34 May 2015 #80

I do. H2O Man May 2015 #81

If Sanders beats Hillary in the Primaries he can win the General. It would change all perceptions Tom Rinaldo May 2015 #82

My simplest answer; Yes, he has a real shot. Half-Century Man May 2015 #83

Sanders can win a general Man from Pickens May 2015 #84

Yes. I think he can win. LWolf May 2015 #90

Nobody thought Alberta would... CanSocDem May 2015 #91

America will not elect a Socialist in 2016 redstateblues May 2015 #96

Bernie gets elected every six years. He is a socialist. nt bemildred May 2015 #100

By the 2nd smallest electorate in the nation, and almost uniformly snow-white, too. Orrex May 2015 #141

It definitely shows that americans will elect socialists. It is a fact. nt bemildred May 2015 #144

It's a meaningless fact. Orrex May 2015 #156

It means Bernie is a Senator, that is how it works. nt bemildred May 2015 #157

No shit. And he'll remain a Senator. Orrex May 2015 #159

I am addressing the notion that americans will not elect socialists, they will and they do. nt bemildred May 2015 #169

Who put forth that notion? Orrex May 2015 #173

Thanks for clearing that up redstateblues May 2015 #189

On the ballot, he would be listed as a Democrat Art_from_Ark May 2015 #225

Right, America will never elect a Catholic-black-woman-socialist-whathaveyou in 2016. bemildred May 2015 #237

Can Clinton win a seriously contested election? The next time would be the first. TheKentuckian May 2015 #95

With Bernie at the top of the ticket we're headed for an electoral wipeout. It will make the 80s Metric System May 2015 #97

Let me ask you a serious question fredamae May 2015 #98

No i don't think he will win. hrmjustin May 2015 #99

I Will No Longer Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go cantbeserious May 2015 #102

So you are saying Hillary is evil? redstateblues May 2015 #191

I Am Saying That She Is Bought And Paid For By Wall Street As We Already Know cantbeserious May 2015 #193

Heh. OilemFirchen May 2015 #207

Maybe HassleCat May 2015 #104

I have a serious guestion for you BluegrassDem olddots May 2015 #106

Yes! Yes I do! haikugal May 2015 #107

Does anyone really think Hillary Clinton would win a general election? earthside May 2015 #108

"But Mrs. Hillary Clinton heading the Democratic ticket in 2016 is a landslide loser." DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #174

I'm old enough to remember ... earthside May 2015 #183

I would actually have to see the odds and polling from the races you cited. DemocratSinceBirth May 2015 #188

Nobody but the people. cyberswede May 2015 #114

Yes. Hilary was the presumed 2008 nominee, until an inexperienced one term Sen was elected! EndElectoral May 2015 #115

Wasn't it a half term? Seem to remember he didn't finish the term to become President. libdem4life May 2015 #138

"He's a prickly, grumpy old man" --->personal attack. Is it ok to call Hillary a &#%^&@%#* now too? L0oniX May 2015 #125

Funny how that works, huh? 99Forever May 2015 #130

I'm going to quote the last guy who people said could not be elected, Barack Obama, the night he was Bluenorthwest May 2015 #126

Absolutely...people are hungry and hurting, HELL YES randys1 May 2015 #127

Grumpy old man? Bohemianwriter May 2015 #128

Would you vote for Lou Grant? Jackpine Radical May 2015 #132

if the repugs nominate Huckleberry I can see anyone beating him dlwickham May 2015 #131

in 2007, nobody thought we'd elect a black guy as president: Ken Burch May 2015 #133

If he doesn't win then we are stuck with another POTUS repaying favors onecaliberal May 2015 #135

If I thought he could lead us more toward a nation like Denmark, I'd be behind him completely. Hoyt May 2015 #136

When was the last time someone to the far left or right of their party won? Reter May 2015 #139

He is not that far left really Rosa Luxemburg May 2015 #230

Bernie would be luck to win his home state in the general workinclasszero May 2015 #142

I think it's too early to say. n/t malthaussen May 2015 #145

Since the only candidates the Repukes LibDemAlways May 2015 #153

i am not so sure drray23 May 2015 #233

I think Bernie's message would have broad populist appeal. If LibDemAlways May 2015 #236

Reading through this thread again leaves me with one question. LWolf May 2015 #160

Hillary is an imperious, arrogant old woman. Marr May 2015 #162

No, not in the real world. n/t Lil Missy May 2015 #165

Yes. In fact, if he's the nominee he will restore faith in the electoral system. n/t lumberjack_jeff May 2015 #168

I don't really know anymore. I thought HRC would beat the POTUS in 2008. Rex May 2015 #170

Obama can't possibly win! ...or so we were told. Kip Humphrey May 2015 #178

Yes. His problem is the primaries. Eleanors38 May 2015 #180

Reading through this hilarious thread, I get a sense of D�j� vu. Remember this guy? Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #181

Yes, I seriously think he can win. Even if he doesn't, every revolution has to start somewhere. liberal_at_heart May 2015 #184

And of course there was this guy who was the next Great White Hope. Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #186

It took this guy to show 'em all how it's done. Tarheel_Dem May 2015 #187

He already has... kentuck May 2015 #190

Did anyone think that Obama would win the general election? Rosa Luxemburg May 2015 #194

She's a Cracked Actor with a past, he's someone people can trust . orpupilofnature57 May 2015 #202

He's not someone people can trust to beat the Republicans... brooklynite May 2015 #206

Didn't we ask the same question about Obama in 2007? muntrv May 2015 #209

I think most Democrats would win over a Republican in this era. bravenak May 2015 #210

And this is why I wrote we might be at one of those moments nadinbrzezinski May 2015 #214

You're confusing primaries with the general election. Stop it. Warpy May 2015 #211

Yes. nt RiffRandell May 2015 #212

You asked a serious question, so I will give you a very serious answer nadinbrzezinski May 2015 #213

The conventional wisdom. bravenak May 2015 #221

As I wrote, we might be in one of those moments nadinbrzezinski May 2015 #223

I hope so. I really do. bravenak May 2015 #224

Sure. Very possible. immoderate May 2015 #215

Concerned, huh? TBF May 2015 #216

As opposed to what, a prickly, grumpy old woman? Octafish May 2015 #217

if he can win the democratic primary JI7 May 2015 #220

Yes (nt) bigwillq May 2015 #222

Yes. daleanime May 2015 #226

He is great. JDPriestly May 2015 #231

Of course he won't MaggieD May 2015 #232

Neoliberalism has a lifetime opponent in me. They didn't before. mmonk May 2015 #235

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