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[TM99]

31. Actually, you would be factually wrong.

When it comes to Democratic primaries and early polls, things are very exciting and unpredictable. The same can not be said for Republicans as typically the early poll leader does take the primary.

But Democrats? Nah, it is a lot more fun and crazy even.

There are quite a few years where early polling favorites lost to candidates that were barely known in the year preceding the election. One such example is Bill Clinton.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/04/a-brief-history-of-primary-polling-part-ii/?_r=0

Even as late as the end of 1991, Clinton was polling at 8% with only about 30% name recognition. And yet we know what eventually happened. He won the primary and then went on to beat a sitting President who was a war hero and who had just finished a successful war in Iraq.

Out of the 9 election cycles in that NY Times study, only twice did the early highest polling candidate win the primary - 1984 and 2000. And in both instances, they lost in the general to Reagan and close enough to GW Bush for it to be stolen in FL.

The statistics actually show that Hillary is in far greater trouble both in the primary and in the general than Sanders or the Republican. Right now Carson may be the highest polling GOP candidate. If this study holds true to form, the general may come down to Carson versus Sanders or Carson versus Clinton.