This message was self-deleted by its author

[Algernon Moncrieff]

191. While what you say is true about 2008, this election is not likely to be like 2008

..and if it is (e.g. we're back into high-casualty war, or the economy is in full meltdown), then neither Bernie nor Hillary will win; we will be welcoming President Ted Cruz, President Rand Paul, or whomever else the electorate-at-large feels represents a change from current policy.

Sanders and Warren play well to the activist-wing of the Democratic Party (or, as conservatives refer to them -- "The Occupy Crowd"; or, as an Obama administration official referred to them, "the Professional Left&quot . This is a group that represents about 20-30% of the party, and is over-represented here at DU. OTOH, they are the group that organizes, phone-banks, and tends to be more likely to actually show up and vote in primaries and mid-terms.

Obama had factors going for him that Hillary did not in 2008. Obama had a huge advantage in Iowa (especially in the Quad Cities area) because he was a familiar figure fron neighboring Illinois. In 2008, the "no more Bushes or Clintons) rejoinder was stronger, and in the economic free-fall of 2008, America wanted Hope very much, and at least thought at the time that they wanted change. Hillary also ran a terribly managed campaign, while Obama had two of the sharpest operatives in recent political history in Plouffe & Axelrod.

Fast forward: the economy is reasonably stable; there is nostalgia for the mid-90s -- the age of Bill Clinton; and there is concern about foreign policy. Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State, her husband is ex-President, and she probably gets Barack's endorsement as payback for Bill's speech at the 2012 convention. A sizable portion of the electorate (both in the primary and GE) will vote for Hillary because, frankly, they like Bill and hope he'll be the eminence grise behind Hillary, and still others who feel that it's time America had a woman President, and see HRC as being right for the job.

If not Hillary, then who? Bernie Sanders is a pretty old looking guy; a self-proclaimed socialist; and not among the world's gifted speakers. Even if he gets nominated, he gets slaughtered by a Jeb Bush or a Scott Walker. Martin O'Malley? The Republicans will enjoy telling everyone about how he taxed the rain in Maryland. Elizabeth Warren? Maybe, but she has zero foreign policy experience, and would have to answer questions about why she was a Republican in the 90s, and the whole Native American thing. I seriously think that if it's not Hillary, the Party needs to work to start from scratch to find someone we could agree on that could compete in the GE. Al Gore? Kirstin Gillibrand? Maybe Tammy Duckworth?