in 1988 vermont caucused for jesse jackson. in 2008

[Sancho]

3. Honestly, with a population less than most Fl or Ca counties and 3 electoral college votes...

Vermont doesn't matter. There are some other small parts of the US that are less diverse and also predicable; note that there are more Puerto Ricans in Florida or NY than the entire population of Vermont!

To win in 2016, the base for Democrats will have to include independent women, African Americans, and hispanics. The GOP is counting on white males, Christian conservatives, and low turnout.

As others have pointed out, the GOP base is aging and literally dying off. The hispanic share is growing, which is why the GOP will never have a path to citizenship. Interestingly, the GOP gerrymandering was aimed at a black-white divide, but that won't work over time with a growing immigrant population, so we'll see if state offices don't start falling to a changing population. For example, Allen Grayson may have benefited from an increasing group of immigrants in central Florida.

On CNN this am, there was a long discussion of Fiorina and Hillary in SC. As appealing to hard-core progressives as Bernie is (and I've listened to him for quite some time on Thom Hartman, etc.), he is not even on the radar for large blocks of voters in key purple states. If Bernie really wants to get traction, he needs to get out of small town New England. That may be why the national news still is barely giving Bernie lip service so far.