Let's play with Poll numbers! [View all]

[brooklynite]

It was suggested that "Hillary was collapsing"/"Bernie was surging" when the Des Moines Register poll came out at 57-15 this weekened. One polling point (even though the DMR January poll had Hillary actually lower at 56).

Well two new -national- polls are out and Hillary is at 60-62% while Bernie is at.....10%.

Now, I could argue that Hillary is surging and Bernie is collapsing...or I could argue that they show Bernie was never that popular nationally. But I wouldn't, because pointing to individual data points is rarely informative.


I look at polling over time. The first notable poll is popularity OVER TIME:




Yes, Hillary's numbers have gone down recently; that frequently happens in political campaigns. However, note that her LOW point today is higher than her HIGH point in the 2008 election cycle. Also, because of her familiarity, there aren't a lot of surprises about Clinton. People know her, and they've decided they like her far more than the alternatives.

The second is in head to head OVER TIME:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary (apologies; the Pollster chart won't generate an image):

Jan 2015: Clinton 60.9% (scaled average)
Feb 2015: Clinton 60.2%
Mar 2015: Clinton 60.2%
Apr 2015: Clinton 60.8%
May 2015: Clinton 61.1%
Jun 2015: Clinton 61.3%

That's a stable line, with an ever so slight increase. Despite Benghazi, emails, "Clinton Cash" and every other "scandal, Hillary Clinton is holding her voters. Is Bernie Sanders gaining share? Yes, but not from her.

Some people here certainly don't like her, and they're welcome to hold that opinion. But let's be honest about where the Primary actually stands today with real Democratic voters.