Can Sanders or O'Malley win? Yes. How? Basic math. [View all]

[jeff47]

To win the presidency, you need 270 electoral votes. That's it. You don't need to be popular everywhere, you don't need to poll well with "Soccer Moms" or any other creation of the punditry. You need 270 votes.

At this moment, the Democratic nominee has 257 electoral votes. These come from the "blue" states. The only way a Democrat loses any of these votes is to run an terrible campaign. Both Sanders and O'Malley have lengthy histories of campaigning that show neither one is particularly likely to turn off the Democratic base that will deliver those 257 votes.

So to win, the Democratic nominee needs one large "purple" state, or two small "purple" states. That's it. We don't need to win Texas. We don't need to run up the lead even more in California.

For O'Malley, the easiest route is probably Virginia. Good turnout in the DC suburbs overwhelms the rural vote. Democrats have been using this strategy to win in VA for several elections now. And VA gets him to 270 and he wins.

For Sanders, the easiest route is probably Colorado and Iowa. Populism does extremely well in those states. And those two states get him over 270. Virginia should also be pretty easy for Sanders, through the same strategy as O'Malley.

If these options prove tricky for some reason, there's lots of other options. Because the Democratic nominee only needs one or two states out of the 10 "purple" states.

The Republican nominee has 149 electoral votes from the Red states. Again, barring some massive failure on the Republican candidate's part, those votes are in the bank. How does the Republican nominee get to 270? He has to win all 10 "purple" states, and turn one blue state. That is damn near impossible. It will only happen if the Democratic nominee is inept enough to turn off the base.

And this is why the Republican nomination is such a clown car at the moment. The Republicans who are capable of counting all the way to 270 know that 2016 is not going to go their way.

So can O'Malley or Sanders win the general election? Yes. Quite easily.

"But money!!! Koch brothers!!!" Obama and his PACs were vastly outspent by Romney and his PACs. Obama still won. The pattern was repeated in many statewide races in 2012 and 2014. There is only so much polish you can effectively apply to a turd.

"Socialist!!!" First, democratic socialist. Go look up the difference. Second, Republicans call all Democrats "socialist". Sanders won't stand out.

If you want to claim Sanders or O'Malley can't win the general election, you need to show how the Republican wins 270 electoral votes. Because that is what matters, not your gut feeling.