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Gothmog

(180,288 posts)

50. Do you really think that the Democratic Blue Wall is automatic?

Wed Jun 17, 2015, 05:11 PM

Jun 2015

Each of the races on which the analysis for the Democratic Blue Wall involved races where the Demcratic Party ran a mainstream, well financed and viable candidate. You want to take races that had a mainstream, well financed and viable candidate and apply the results of these races to a candidate who will be easy to characterize as not being in the mainstream and a candidate who will not be well financed.

You can not take historical examples based on running one type of candidate and then claim that the same results would be obtained if a different type of candidate was the nominee. I am a fan of the analysis behind the Democratic Blue Wall and have used that analysis on another board. I do not believe that you can safely assume that the past results for other rather mainstream democratic candidates will apply to a race with a non-mainstream candidate

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Can Sanders or O'Malley win? Yes. How? Basic math. [View all] jeff47 Jun 2015 OP

There is no gaurantee that anyone upaloopa Jun 2015 #1

"dillusional thinking"? KamaAina Jun 2015 #2

Fixed upaloopa Jun 2015 #12

They will throw more than that at him. leftofcool Jun 2015 #3

Try reading the entire post before replying. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #8

I did and everything you said has been said upaloopa Jun 2015 #10

You read it all, which is why you said something that was explicitly addressed in the post. jeff47 Jun 2015 #13

Nobody knows the difference between Dem upaloopa Jun 2015 #27

Ok, now you've finally finished reading 2/3rds of the OP. jeff47 Jun 2015 #35

Clinton can take Texas. okasha Jun 2015 #57

Not when the story is Sanders or O'Malley can't win. jeff47 Jun 2015 #63

You're missing something here. okasha Jun 2015 #72

So the people of color in Texas did not know the Democrats that ran for governor jeff47 Jun 2015 #92

The problem was that we knew some of them too well. okasha Jun 2015 #135

And all the other candidates were completely unknown? jeff47 Jun 2015 #140

Obama lost Texas by 11.5% in 2008 and around 15% in 2012 LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #73

Again, an unfortunate truth. okasha Jun 2015 #74

Hillary beat Obama by ~100,000 votes in the 2008 primary LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #82

If you look at demographics TX should be blue but TX Hispanics... DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #86

They don't vote for a party. okasha Jun 2015 #91

Well, London, I'm sitting here in S. Texas okasha Jun 2015 #89

That's nice. I am in north Texas, and ancedotal discussions LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #123

You're in a whole different world. okasha Jun 2015 #124

This is a little known fact, but during the Presidential voting LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #125

Different candidate, different numbers. okasha Jun 2015 #126

Cool. Shall we say $50? LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #127

I am a hard core Texas Democrat in Tom DeLay's old district Gothmog Jun 2015 #129

Sure. okasha Jun 2015 #134

Look at the polling in post 129 Gothmog Jun 2015 #132

If Texas is in play, the GOP candidate has no chance Gothmog Jun 2015 #130

Exactly. okasha Jun 2015 #133

Wow someone finally said it out loud. That Bernie will make us lose. Such a shame to hear it. madfloridian Jun 2015 #161

I wouldn't count any of PA, NH, MI, WI, NV or NM as living locks BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #4

Again, gut feelings don't matter. jeff47 Jun 2015 #7

Until we have candidates and state-by-state polls it's all intuition BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #14

History did not start today. There are previous elections that give us information. jeff47 Jun 2015 #15

Whatever...if going to bed at night thinking Bernie has 257 EV's locked up works for you BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #16

Because I did not mention any other candidate. It's all about obsession with Sanders. jeff47 Jun 2015 #20

Beats sleeping with polling data showing Bernie beating an actual Republican candidate right now BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #38

"Beats sleeping with polling data showing Bernie beating an actual Republican candidate right now" Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #52

So, you think Clinton voters will stay home if Sanders is the nominee then? jeff47 Jun 2015 #60

Ok BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #75

Make sure you skip over the paragraph that indicates the poll isn't reliable. jeff47 Jun 2015 #109

How does the cited paragraph make the poll unreliable? mythology Jun 2015 #131

Thank you. You saved me the trouble. okasha Jun 2015 #137

Because it notes that the polls are very much in flux. jeff47 Jun 2015 #141

There is no question that at least seven states that went for Obama in 2012 onenote Jun 2015 #26

74 EVs. jeff47 Jun 2015 #30

Is someone saying "O'Malley can't win"? I actually think he can. n/t Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #53

Lots of people are saying anyone other than Clinton can not win. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #56

I don't believe she's the only one who can win, but the field of "viable" candidates is very small. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #61

feingold lost the Senate race. I'm sure that had nothing to do with turning off the base JI7 Jun 2015 #17

In the 2010 Republican wave, by a few percent. Polling shows he wins it back in 2016. jeff47 Jun 2015 #18

I don't count any state as a lock in for any candidate. Who's counting the votes? mwooldri Jun 2015 #160

I love Sanders and I'm voting for him, but there's no guarantee he's winning even 257 EV's Reter Jun 2015 #5

Then show which states he loses and why he loses them. jeff47 Jun 2015 #11

Recent elections are irrelevant Reter Jun 2015 #76

They are the only hard data we have. That makes them far more relevant than your gut. jeff47 Jun 2015 #102

It is automatic unless Democrats stay home BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #36

So we will never have a Republican landslide or even semi landslide ever again? Reter Jun 2015 #77

No BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #87

With demographics being what they are DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #119

Not so fast! Being called a "socialist" is miles wide from calling yourself a "socialist". Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #6

Republican voters do not listen to what Democrats say. jeff47 Jun 2015 #9

Outside the Occupy "movement", socialist is still a dirty word. Polling shows that. n/t Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #19

And that's why Republicans use it for all Democrats. jeff47 Jun 2015 #22

What don't you understand about "most Americans". That's what the article says. Not Republicans... Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #24

Do you think I'm claiming only Republicans can hear other Republicans? jeff47 Jun 2015 #25

Learning the difference would be for somebody who gave a shit about "the difference". I don't. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #28

So...you have no idea how the Republican wins 270 votes then? jeff47 Jun 2015 #32

Excellent point! wow, that just blew my mind. SaranchaIsWaiting Jun 2015 #43

I agree the term has lost much of its negative connotation in recent years Fast Walker 52 Jun 2015 #55

And Stalinists who get their money Joseph Stalin money in my book are STALINISTS! cascadiance Jun 2015 #29

I despise bad photoshop, and that's some of the worst. MADem Jun 2015 #40

Thanks for alerting me that this was photoshopped... cascadiance Jun 2015 #42

That other picture is garbage, too. The Staliln shot looks like a Getty image of MADem Jun 2015 #138

The other photoshop was manipulative... cascadiance Jun 2015 #151

Please... Pew research is a CONSERVATIVE think tank RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #46

Pew Research is a "CONSERVATIVE" think tank? Since when? Link? Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #49

And if you look at that research, you will see RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #66

There's only one reason you "do not provide links", and I think we both know what that is. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #68

Yeah, and I stated it. RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #139

You made the claim that Pew Research is a rightwing think tank. Prove it, or admit you made it up. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #152

How about IMNSHO? RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #154

You said it was a rightwing think tank. Until you back that up, please stop digging. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #155

I guess that you don't know that the founder RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #156

Maybe this will help? Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #158

It's summertime. RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #159

Making up stuff is nothing to be proud of, so I'm gonna leave you now. Take care. Mkay? Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #162

I gave you sourcing. RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #163

should Sanders win the primary tiredtoo Jun 2015 #21

Then how does the Republican win 270 votes? jeff47 Jun 2015 #23

Excellent no one has an answer to how Republicans are going to win. Kalidurga Jun 2015 #31

There's a few who actually want to discuss it, which is what I was hoping for jeff47 Jun 2015 #33

Yep Kalidurga Jun 2015 #34

Nothing new BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #88

Which is why we NEED to vote in a Bernie or O'Malley. SaranchaIsWaiting Jun 2015 #44

Thank you for this post BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #37

Do you really think that the Democratic Blue Wall is automatic? Gothmog Jun 2015 #50

God, I wish I could rec this post. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #58

Thanks Gothmog Jun 2015 #67

"mainstream and well financed candidates " Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #70

Understand that I personally like Senator Sanders Gothmog Jun 2015 #114

Sorry, but I can make no such claim as to personally liking BS. I don't. But that's besides the... Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #117

I agree that general election viability is the key issue Gothmog Jun 2015 #122

Because Coakley won and Warren lost? BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #90

We are talking about general election contests and historical facts Gothmog Jun 2015 #113

O'Malley winning VA? That's a tough one. MADem Jun 2015 #39

Counting. Try it. jeff47 Jun 2015 #54

According to the OP Obama was "vastly" outspent by Romney and co. onenote Jun 2015 #71

Obama didn't have to pay for travel--Romney's entourage did. MADem Jun 2015 #79

And now add in all the "issue" superPACs that were not covered in your opensecrets search. jeff47 Jun 2015 #96

Let's focus on CA, again--we aren't talking about threshhold for a recall, we're talking a general MADem Jun 2015 #78

We are talking about the threshold for a recall when you use Schwarzenegger as an argument. jeff47 Jun 2015 #95

Arnold won more than once. And he won DECISIVELY the second time around--it was a rout. MADem Jun 2015 #121

Incumbents have a benefit, and that was 2006. jeff47 Jun 2015 #148

You're joking, right ? MADem Jun 2015 #169

Nope. Sorry that reality does not confirm your deeply-held beliefs. jeff47 Jun 2015 #170

Baker won in MA. And he did it with MONEY. And Attack/Oppo ads. MADem Jun 2015 #171

O'Malley easily wins Virginia. I remember being told in 2008 that Obama FSogol Jun 2015 #80

Easily? Not. onenote Jun 2015 #84

Doesn't matter. The Latinos in the suburbs and exburbs will show up FSogol Jun 2015 #85

Actually Bernie can take CO very easily Jumpin Jack Flash Jun 2015 #83

Not without money, he ain't. MADem Jun 2015 #128

This is why we have to have a Bernie or an O'Malley get that nom. SaranchaIsWaiting Jun 2015 #41

This assumes Rethugs don't steal votes DeeDeeNY Jun 2015 #45

The Democratic Blue Wall requires a viable. well funded and competitive candidate Gothmog Jun 2015 #47

I was thinking about this the other day... Volaris Jun 2015 #48

Hate to break this to you, okasha Jun 2015 #81

Hrm...somebody better alert all these Latinos that they're living in the wrong jeff47 Jun 2015 #100

Really? okasha Jun 2015 #120

According to you, the Southwest. jeff47 Jun 2015 #145

Bernie doesn't start with 257 EVs. Here's my Bernie vs GOP map. DanTex Jun 2015 #51

And I can make a map showing he wins all 50 states. jeff47 Jun 2015 #64

Well, your OP is your gut feeling, and this map is mine. DanTex Jun 2015 #118

No, my OP is based on the results from 2014, 2012, 2010 and 2008. jeff47 Jun 2015 #144

I don't seem to recall any self-described socialists from tiny white liberal states running DanTex Jun 2015 #147

QUICK!!!! RUN AWAY!!!! jeff47 Jun 2015 #149

Your claim isn't backed by any analysis. Without polls, it's all opinion at this point. DanTex Jun 2015 #150

Yep. No way he wins VA, CO and NM. I'd have doubts he could win PA wyldwolf Jun 2015 #94

Your gut isn't evidence. jeff47 Jun 2015 #97

Neither is yours wyldwolf Jun 2015 #101

No, my conclusion is based on the gov and both senators being Democrats... jeff47 Jun 2015 #104

It's your gut feeling that means squat when it comes to a candidate like Sanders wyldwolf Jun 2015 #107

The Democratic Blue Wall is based on historical races where the Democrats ran a viable candidate Gothmog Jul 2015 #172

65% of the Latino vote is enough to win. Motown_Johnny Jun 2015 #59

This goes for any Democratic candidate DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #62

I don't think Webb or Chafee could pull it off. The rest can. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #65

to quote you: "your gut isn't evidence." wyldwolf Jun 2015 #103

Their campaigns are far closer to how the DNC ran 2010 and 2014. jeff47 Jun 2015 #106

that's your gut feeling wyldwolf Jun 2015 #108

No, that's their policy positions, and their records. jeff47 Jun 2015 #110

It's your gut feeling Sanders can win the same states Obama won. wyldwolf Jun 2015 #111

No. For example, I don't think a Democrat pres candidate can win NC. jeff47 Jun 2015 #112

to quote you: "that's your gut feeling" wyldwolf Jun 2015 #116

No, again it's based on actual evidence. jeff47 Jun 2015 #143

But it isn't a fact, so it's your gut feeling wyldwolf Jun 2015 #157

knr frylock Jun 2015 #69

White vote percentages lancer78 Jun 2015 #93

Again, we don't need across-the-board. We need one. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #99

We don't need even one lancer78 Jun 2015 #105

Since Gore, lancer78 Jun 2015 #98

To assume Democrats have a lock on 257 electoral votes is just doc03 Jun 2015 #115

1984. nt Ruby the Liberal Jun 2015 #136

Go ahead and explain how the Republican candidate wins CA, NY, OR, VT jeff47 Jun 2015 #142

If the economy crashes like many are predicting any of those could be lost. doc03 Jun 2015 #153

What serious economist is predicting a crash? DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #164

A Democratic hero Thom Hartman has actually written a doc03 Jun 2015 #165

Random points... DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #166

Not to argue your points but Jim Cramer and others were saying doc03 Jun 2015 #167

I was referring more to academic economists and not funds managers... DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #168

K & R Betty Karlson Jun 2015 #146