General Discussion

DemocratSinceBirth

(101,850 posts)

166. Random points...

Fri Jun 19, 2015, 07:28 PM

Jun 2015

- Most economists are predicting 2% -3% GDP growth for the next eighteen months. They are not soothsayers but I will defer to their collective opinion and not this or that random economist.

- It would be hubris to believe Hillary is a shoo in but I rather have her hand than any of her Democratic or Republican opponents. That's what the polls, the odds makers, and recent electoral history suggests.

-The Democrats have a demographic and Electoral College advantage that is researched, documented, real and tangible but it is not determinative.

-Right now the odds makers have HRC as even money to be our next POTUS. That's a hell of a lot better than her opponents.

-Vote Democratic, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst.

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Can Sanders or O'Malley win? Yes. How? Basic math. [View all] jeff47 Jun 2015 OP

There is no gaurantee that anyone upaloopa Jun 2015 #1

"dillusional thinking"? KamaAina Jun 2015 #2

Fixed upaloopa Jun 2015 #12

They will throw more than that at him. leftofcool Jun 2015 #3

Try reading the entire post before replying. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #8

I did and everything you said has been said upaloopa Jun 2015 #10

You read it all, which is why you said something that was explicitly addressed in the post. jeff47 Jun 2015 #13

Nobody knows the difference between Dem upaloopa Jun 2015 #27

Ok, now you've finally finished reading 2/3rds of the OP. jeff47 Jun 2015 #35

Clinton can take Texas. okasha Jun 2015 #57

Not when the story is Sanders or O'Malley can't win. jeff47 Jun 2015 #63

You're missing something here. okasha Jun 2015 #72

So the people of color in Texas did not know the Democrats that ran for governor jeff47 Jun 2015 #92

The problem was that we knew some of them too well. okasha Jun 2015 #135

And all the other candidates were completely unknown? jeff47 Jun 2015 #140

Obama lost Texas by 11.5% in 2008 and around 15% in 2012 LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #73

Again, an unfortunate truth. okasha Jun 2015 #74

Hillary beat Obama by ~100,000 votes in the 2008 primary LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #82

If you look at demographics TX should be blue but TX Hispanics... DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #86

They don't vote for a party. okasha Jun 2015 #91

Well, London, I'm sitting here in S. Texas okasha Jun 2015 #89

That's nice. I am in north Texas, and ancedotal discussions LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #123

You're in a whole different world. okasha Jun 2015 #124

This is a little known fact, but during the Presidential voting LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #125

Different candidate, different numbers. okasha Jun 2015 #126

Cool. Shall we say $50? LondonReign2 Jun 2015 #127

I am a hard core Texas Democrat in Tom DeLay's old district Gothmog Jun 2015 #129

Sure. okasha Jun 2015 #134

Look at the polling in post 129 Gothmog Jun 2015 #132

If Texas is in play, the GOP candidate has no chance Gothmog Jun 2015 #130

Exactly. okasha Jun 2015 #133

Wow someone finally said it out loud. That Bernie will make us lose. Such a shame to hear it. madfloridian Jun 2015 #161

I wouldn't count any of PA, NH, MI, WI, NV or NM as living locks BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #4

Again, gut feelings don't matter. jeff47 Jun 2015 #7

Until we have candidates and state-by-state polls it's all intuition BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #14

History did not start today. There are previous elections that give us information. jeff47 Jun 2015 #15

Whatever...if going to bed at night thinking Bernie has 257 EV's locked up works for you BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #16

Because I did not mention any other candidate. It's all about obsession with Sanders. jeff47 Jun 2015 #20

Beats sleeping with polling data showing Bernie beating an actual Republican candidate right now BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #38

"Beats sleeping with polling data showing Bernie beating an actual Republican candidate right now" Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #52

So, you think Clinton voters will stay home if Sanders is the nominee then? jeff47 Jun 2015 #60

Ok BeyondGeography Jun 2015 #75

Make sure you skip over the paragraph that indicates the poll isn't reliable. jeff47 Jun 2015 #109

How does the cited paragraph make the poll unreliable? mythology Jun 2015 #131

Thank you. You saved me the trouble. okasha Jun 2015 #137

Because it notes that the polls are very much in flux. jeff47 Jun 2015 #141

There is no question that at least seven states that went for Obama in 2012 onenote Jun 2015 #26

74 EVs. jeff47 Jun 2015 #30

Is someone saying "O'Malley can't win"? I actually think he can. n/t Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #53

Lots of people are saying anyone other than Clinton can not win. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #56

I don't believe she's the only one who can win, but the field of "viable" candidates is very small. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #61

feingold lost the Senate race. I'm sure that had nothing to do with turning off the base JI7 Jun 2015 #17

In the 2010 Republican wave, by a few percent. Polling shows he wins it back in 2016. jeff47 Jun 2015 #18

I don't count any state as a lock in for any candidate. Who's counting the votes? mwooldri Jun 2015 #160

I love Sanders and I'm voting for him, but there's no guarantee he's winning even 257 EV's Reter Jun 2015 #5

Then show which states he loses and why he loses them. jeff47 Jun 2015 #11

Recent elections are irrelevant Reter Jun 2015 #76

They are the only hard data we have. That makes them far more relevant than your gut. jeff47 Jun 2015 #102

It is automatic unless Democrats stay home BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #36

So we will never have a Republican landslide or even semi landslide ever again? Reter Jun 2015 #77

No BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #87

With demographics being what they are DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #119

Not so fast! Being called a "socialist" is miles wide from calling yourself a "socialist". Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #6

Republican voters do not listen to what Democrats say. jeff47 Jun 2015 #9

Outside the Occupy "movement", socialist is still a dirty word. Polling shows that. n/t Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #19

And that's why Republicans use it for all Democrats. jeff47 Jun 2015 #22

What don't you understand about "most Americans". That's what the article says. Not Republicans... Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #24

Do you think I'm claiming only Republicans can hear other Republicans? jeff47 Jun 2015 #25

Learning the difference would be for somebody who gave a shit about "the difference". I don't. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #28

So...you have no idea how the Republican wins 270 votes then? jeff47 Jun 2015 #32

Excellent point! wow, that just blew my mind. SaranchaIsWaiting Jun 2015 #43

I agree the term has lost much of its negative connotation in recent years Fast Walker 52 Jun 2015 #55

And Stalinists who get their money Joseph Stalin money in my book are STALINISTS! cascadiance Jun 2015 #29

I despise bad photoshop, and that's some of the worst. MADem Jun 2015 #40

Thanks for alerting me that this was photoshopped... cascadiance Jun 2015 #42

That other picture is garbage, too. The Staliln shot looks like a Getty image of MADem Jun 2015 #138

The other photoshop was manipulative... cascadiance Jun 2015 #151

Please... Pew research is a CONSERVATIVE think tank RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #46

Pew Research is a "CONSERVATIVE" think tank? Since when? Link? Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #49

And if you look at that research, you will see RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #66

There's only one reason you "do not provide links", and I think we both know what that is. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #68

Yeah, and I stated it. RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #139

You made the claim that Pew Research is a rightwing think tank. Prove it, or admit you made it up. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #152

How about IMNSHO? RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #154

You said it was a rightwing think tank. Until you back that up, please stop digging. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #155

I guess that you don't know that the founder RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #156

Maybe this will help? Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #158

It's summertime. RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #159

Making up stuff is nothing to be proud of, so I'm gonna leave you now. Take care. Mkay? Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #162

I gave you sourcing. RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #163

should Sanders win the primary tiredtoo Jun 2015 #21

Then how does the Republican win 270 votes? jeff47 Jun 2015 #23

Excellent no one has an answer to how Republicans are going to win. Kalidurga Jun 2015 #31

There's a few who actually want to discuss it, which is what I was hoping for jeff47 Jun 2015 #33

Yep Kalidurga Jun 2015 #34

Nothing new BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #88

Which is why we NEED to vote in a Bernie or O'Malley. SaranchaIsWaiting Jun 2015 #44

Thank you for this post BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #37

Do you really think that the Democratic Blue Wall is automatic? Gothmog Jun 2015 #50

God, I wish I could rec this post. Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #58

Thanks Gothmog Jun 2015 #67

"mainstream and well financed candidates " Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #70

Understand that I personally like Senator Sanders Gothmog Jun 2015 #114

Sorry, but I can make no such claim as to personally liking BS. I don't. But that's besides the... Tarheel_Dem Jun 2015 #117

I agree that general election viability is the key issue Gothmog Jun 2015 #122

Because Coakley won and Warren lost? BrotherIvan Jun 2015 #90

We are talking about general election contests and historical facts Gothmog Jun 2015 #113

O'Malley winning VA? That's a tough one. MADem Jun 2015 #39

Counting. Try it. jeff47 Jun 2015 #54

According to the OP Obama was "vastly" outspent by Romney and co. onenote Jun 2015 #71

Obama didn't have to pay for travel--Romney's entourage did. MADem Jun 2015 #79

And now add in all the "issue" superPACs that were not covered in your opensecrets search. jeff47 Jun 2015 #96

Let's focus on CA, again--we aren't talking about threshhold for a recall, we're talking a general MADem Jun 2015 #78

We are talking about the threshold for a recall when you use Schwarzenegger as an argument. jeff47 Jun 2015 #95

Arnold won more than once. And he won DECISIVELY the second time around--it was a rout. MADem Jun 2015 #121

Incumbents have a benefit, and that was 2006. jeff47 Jun 2015 #148

You're joking, right ? MADem Jun 2015 #169

Nope. Sorry that reality does not confirm your deeply-held beliefs. jeff47 Jun 2015 #170

Baker won in MA. And he did it with MONEY. And Attack/Oppo ads. MADem Jun 2015 #171

O'Malley easily wins Virginia. I remember being told in 2008 that Obama FSogol Jun 2015 #80

Easily? Not. onenote Jun 2015 #84

Doesn't matter. The Latinos in the suburbs and exburbs will show up FSogol Jun 2015 #85

Actually Bernie can take CO very easily Jumpin Jack Flash Jun 2015 #83

Not without money, he ain't. MADem Jun 2015 #128

This is why we have to have a Bernie or an O'Malley get that nom. SaranchaIsWaiting Jun 2015 #41

This assumes Rethugs don't steal votes DeeDeeNY Jun 2015 #45

The Democratic Blue Wall requires a viable. well funded and competitive candidate Gothmog Jun 2015 #47

I was thinking about this the other day... Volaris Jun 2015 #48

Hate to break this to you, okasha Jun 2015 #81

Hrm...somebody better alert all these Latinos that they're living in the wrong jeff47 Jun 2015 #100

Really? okasha Jun 2015 #120

According to you, the Southwest. jeff47 Jun 2015 #145

Bernie doesn't start with 257 EVs. Here's my Bernie vs GOP map. DanTex Jun 2015 #51

And I can make a map showing he wins all 50 states. jeff47 Jun 2015 #64

Well, your OP is your gut feeling, and this map is mine. DanTex Jun 2015 #118

No, my OP is based on the results from 2014, 2012, 2010 and 2008. jeff47 Jun 2015 #144

I don't seem to recall any self-described socialists from tiny white liberal states running DanTex Jun 2015 #147

QUICK!!!! RUN AWAY!!!! jeff47 Jun 2015 #149

Your claim isn't backed by any analysis. Without polls, it's all opinion at this point. DanTex Jun 2015 #150

Yep. No way he wins VA, CO and NM. I'd have doubts he could win PA wyldwolf Jun 2015 #94

Your gut isn't evidence. jeff47 Jun 2015 #97

Neither is yours wyldwolf Jun 2015 #101

No, my conclusion is based on the gov and both senators being Democrats... jeff47 Jun 2015 #104

It's your gut feeling that means squat when it comes to a candidate like Sanders wyldwolf Jun 2015 #107

The Democratic Blue Wall is based on historical races where the Democrats ran a viable candidate Gothmog Jul 2015 #172

65% of the Latino vote is enough to win. Motown_Johnny Jun 2015 #59

This goes for any Democratic candidate DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #62

I don't think Webb or Chafee could pull it off. The rest can. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #65

to quote you: "your gut isn't evidence." wyldwolf Jun 2015 #103

Their campaigns are far closer to how the DNC ran 2010 and 2014. jeff47 Jun 2015 #106

that's your gut feeling wyldwolf Jun 2015 #108

No, that's their policy positions, and their records. jeff47 Jun 2015 #110

It's your gut feeling Sanders can win the same states Obama won. wyldwolf Jun 2015 #111

No. For example, I don't think a Democrat pres candidate can win NC. jeff47 Jun 2015 #112

to quote you: "that's your gut feeling" wyldwolf Jun 2015 #116

No, again it's based on actual evidence. jeff47 Jun 2015 #143

But it isn't a fact, so it's your gut feeling wyldwolf Jun 2015 #157

knr frylock Jun 2015 #69

White vote percentages lancer78 Jun 2015 #93

Again, we don't need across-the-board. We need one. (nt) jeff47 Jun 2015 #99

We don't need even one lancer78 Jun 2015 #105

Since Gore, lancer78 Jun 2015 #98

To assume Democrats have a lock on 257 electoral votes is just doc03 Jun 2015 #115

1984. nt Ruby the Liberal Jun 2015 #136

Go ahead and explain how the Republican candidate wins CA, NY, OR, VT jeff47 Jun 2015 #142

If the economy crashes like many are predicting any of those could be lost. doc03 Jun 2015 #153

What serious economist is predicting a crash? DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #164

A Democratic hero Thom Hartman has actually written a doc03 Jun 2015 #165

Random points... DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #166

Not to argue your points but Jim Cramer and others were saying doc03 Jun 2015 #167

I was referring more to academic economists and not funds managers... DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2015 #168

K & R Betty Karlson Jun 2015 #146