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brooklynite

(96,882 posts)

202. Let's use Texas an an example...

Wed Jun 24, 2015, 11:50 AM

Jun 2015

...we don't associate it as in play in the GE, but it's actually fairly significant in the Primary. For Sanders to win, he'll need about 1.5 MILLION Democratic votes (Clinton got 1.46 M in 2008). And those votes are spread across a state that takes 10-11 hours to drive across. Sanders won't be enough money for significant ad buys, so he'll have to rely on his speeches/rallies. How many speeches can he give, and how many people will he be able to reach? Add to which, the same period he'd be competing in Texas, there will be nine other States holding Primaries. Clinton will have add buys, paid staff and surrogates in each of the Super Tuesday states. Sanders will certainly have volunteers, but if he's not paying people work full time for the week, his coverage is going to be limited.

Additionally, back in Texas, a significant share of the Primary electorate will be Hispanic. Will they be thinking of Bernie's position on foreign trade, or Clinton's position on immigration reform?

This week's Texas poll: Clinton 53/Sanders 15.,

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UPDATE: If the TPP Passes Bernie Sanders Will Be the Next President of the US. And Here's Why: [View all] sabrina 1 Jun 2015 OP

I really do want to see Senator Sanders get elected to the Presidency. CaliforniaPeggy Jun 2015 #1

took the words right out of my mouth marym625 Jun 2015 #13

I think he will win anyhow, but I'm looking at the sheer numbers of people who are opposed to sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #14

Like I have said before. WHEN CRABS ROAR Jun 2015 #167

Only if he goes on the independent ticket and that is a long shot. The 'clinton machine' have Purveyor Jun 2015 #2

The primary debates have already been set up. n/t pnwmom Jun 2015 #4

Do you have a time, place and participants? I'd love to see the details... eom Purveyor Jun 2015 #8

This is all that has been announced so far. pnwmom Jun 2015 #12

And then there is this: "In a tweet, Clinton said she is "looking forward to a real conversation" Purveyor Jun 2015 #16

If she does not show, the other candidates including Bernie will debate, and the American JDPriestly Jun 2015 #36

He was at 3% in Jan. So he is definitely gaining votes from the Dem base. However that is not sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #41

And thinking voters should be independents. The party system is just a way to trap voters. erronis Jun 2015 #81

"Hillary is losing voters to Bernie"...no she isn't brooklynite Jun 2015 #56

That's down from the over 80% polls were consistently posted here so yes, she is losing support. sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #86

Don't know what polls you're thinking of... brooklynite Jun 2015 #88

Look at the poll again. RoccoR5955 Jun 2015 #112

I see Clinton starting at 60% in Jan 2013 and ending at.....60% today. brooklynite Jun 2015 #114

You mean you missed all the polls on DU where she was consistently in the 80s? sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #134

Predictwise has her chances going up lately. OhZone Jun 2015 #165

I see her chances going down. We have two great candidates in the race now though they are not known sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #179

Just how many people is that really? zeemike Jun 2015 #187

Rallies are not votes brooklynite Jun 2015 #191

And so we went with the less enthusiastic one Kerry zeemike Jun 2015 #193

Given the choice of the guy who could win an Election in November... brooklynite Jun 2015 #194

We need more than those scripted debates. Sanders has offered a way for the people to sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #9

If the party leaders crush democracy like you say RobertEarl Jun 2015 #6

See my post below. I see no reason why he should not still run as a Democrat. Take that party out of sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #30

Totally ... Bernie is not Ralph Nader 99th_Monkey Jun 2015 #80

I've been listening to Bernie's weekly phone-in segment ... staggerleem Jun 2015 #99

people will need to be reminded hopemountain Jun 2015 #141

Yep - I live in such a state (Oregon) nt 99th_Monkey Jun 2015 #164

And I believe that in many closed-primary states ... staggerleem Jun 2015 #215

whoa! that needs to be changed - what about hopemountain Jun 2015 #238

OK, and we can work on changing it ... staggerleem Jun 2015 #241

yes, i am with you on the activism nt hopemountain Jun 2015 #242

No matter what Bernie does or doesn't do, he'll be accused of something. merrily Jun 2015 #154

It's not that the Party leaders are f'n stupid, it's that their are arrogant to a fault. rhett o rick Jun 2015 #183

I don't think he'll need to do that. The anger they will face IF this secret Corporate Deal passes sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #10

So does that mean you want it to pass? pnwmom Jun 2015 #3

No it does not. I am as opposed to this abomination as Sanders is. BUT if there was any question sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #7

ooooooooh! almost gotcha! frylock Jun 2015 #83

Lol! sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #87

Too bad if it has to go this way, but something has to give. eom. Cleita Jun 2015 #5

Bernie will win on his own but aspirant Jun 2015 #11

Yes, exactly. I believe he will win anyhow, but IF they are stupid enough to pass this, I agree, it sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #22

TPP aspirant Jun 2015 #15

Because she is for it...lock, stock and barrel as she as indicated some 40+ times... eom Purveyor Jun 2015 #19

I thought she recently said she was against it? aspirant Jun 2015 #23

Oh yes...she has 'evolved', indeed! Expect more evolution depending on how the wind blows. eom Purveyor Jun 2015 #24

And she will 'evolve' when the polls shows that TPP is very unpopular.... Oh Yes Jun 2015 #47

Welcome to DU Oh Yes. I believe you are correct, the anger will be intense. As someone above said, sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #120

+1 The wrath of the people against injustice has never fared well for oppressors throughout history. appalachiablue Jun 2015 #158

+1 azmom Jun 2015 #209

No, I believe she said we should 'watch what Nancy Pelosi does'. Not exactly the kind of statement sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #27

True leadership frylock Jun 2015 #84

The wind must have shifted. Flatulo Jun 2015 #50

Candidate Hillary does think the deal SofS Hillary helped negotiate and dubbed the Gold Standard is merrily Jun 2015 #155

She evolves with the wind. 840high Jun 2015 #175

K&R X 1,000! PatrickforO Jun 2015 #17

K&R marym625 Jun 2015 #18

Sen. Durbin has been great on this, thanks for reminding me. There are a few good ones who sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #37

Just spoke to kirk's office marym625 Jun 2015 #60

I agree. The TPP has enough potential to be a game changer. Baitball Blogger Jun 2015 #20

Exactly, Corporate Greed may very well finally have gone too far. And yes, it will be a game changer sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #38

This message was self-deleted by its author 1000words Jun 2015 #21

Affecting 800 million people... SoapBox Jun 2015 #25

Yes, stunning isn't it, and not one of them has been allowed to see what is in this monstrosity. It sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #39

K&R..... daleanime Jun 2015 #26

Helluva post, Sabrina Iwillnevergiveup Jun 2015 #28

We are living in strange, and definitely changing times. The old ways have failed millions of people sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #31

Australian trade minister may have scuttled TPP for now. madfloridian Jun 2015 #29

Thank you, didn't see that anywhere on the news here. Sky is a Murdoch owned media airc, however sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #33

Probably not. NAFTA only made Bill Clinton that much more popular. Drunken Irishman Jun 2015 #32

That was then, now the people KNOW what NAFTA was really all about. I was so naive back then. sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #35

That was then and we have seen the results. We are less impressed with TPP. jwirr Jun 2015 #108

I'm pretty sure Clinton is more popular today than in 1993. Drunken Irishman Jun 2015 #239

To some. jwirr Jun 2015 #240

Maybe so - but overall way more popular. Drunken Irishman Jun 2015 #243

According to Obama and McConnell, NAFTA needs the fix provided by the TPP. rhett o rick Jun 2015 #184

Who would have ever thought in the sheer joy of the results of the election in 2008 sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #188

We were easily manipulated because we wanted it to be true. We wanted someone rhett o rick Jun 2015 #224

I really do believe that Senator Bernie Sanders madokie Jun 2015 #34

It's not that simple CreekDog Jun 2015 #40

You have no idea how important an issue this is then. Probably THE most important sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #42

+1 BeanMusical Jun 2015 #44

I'm not disagreeing on the importance, I'm disagreeing that it will decisively change the votes CreekDog Jun 2015 #46

I responded to what you wrote, sorry if you don't people to respond to your comments. I'm playing NO sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #74

I agree with you on TPP and also I'm glad you've posted about how horrible Putin is CreekDog Jun 2015 #113

There is an old saying, and I believe it applies here, my advice, meant in all sincerity and in the sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #125

Ok, then I'll edit and thank you for posting how horrible Putin is CreekDog Jun 2015 #140

No one can say I didn't try to save you from embarrassing yourself, but when someone is bound and sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #142

What was the error in my last message? Did I say something incorrect? CreekDog Jun 2015 #143

I do not like one issue voting either but the TPP may be one bill but it effects a whole range of jwirr Jun 2015 #110

I think it is a one issue election, and the issue is integrity. HRC and George Bush both rhett o rick Jun 2015 #185

You outdo yourself in this beautiful OP! delrem Jun 2015 #43

Great post(s)! BeanMusical Jun 2015 #45

I actually believe that the TPP will be the tipping point Oh Yes Jun 2015 #48

republicans have more to worry about from voter retribution on fast track than Democrats do. pampango Jun 2015 #49

Well, I am not going to vote for Debbie Wasserman-DINO, or Bill Nelson or any other djean111 Jun 2015 #54

The 17% of Democrats who are 'less likely' to vote for a pro-fast track politician is a large number pampango Jun 2015 #61

Those are partisan positions. Dems standing up for their team and Repubs viewing this as an Obama sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #132

I don't agree that the Democratic base consists of mindless partisan cheerleaders. pampango Jun 2015 #137

How soon after the TPP passes will Bernie surge to the lead in national polls for the nomination? Freddie Stubbs Jun 2015 #51

...bearing in mind, 'nothing' will happen brooklynite Jun 2015 #64

Unless Bernie Sanders has Silky Sullivan�s blood pogglethrope Jun 2015 #52

In normal times your conventional wisdom might be right, but these are not normal times, so I sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #53

If Sanders is the nominee, I guarantee you Illinois goes red. MohRokTah Jun 2015 #67

Message auto-removed Name removed Jun 2015 #144

Ever see this scary thing? greatauntoftriplets Jun 2015 #146

I live outside Cook Country MohRokTah Jun 2015 #151

I'm in Cook County in a town that went 80 percent for President Obama in 2012. greatauntoftriplets Jun 2015 #152

Defeatist nonsense. Maedhros Jun 2015 #135

The average voter doesn't care.... brooklynite Jun 2015 #55

You are largely right. A Pew poll in January reflected this. pampango Jun 2015 #63

Do you ever talk about the issues your candidate stands for? No offense, but your comments always sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #66

They don't want an informed electorate because azmom Jun 2015 #207

They talk about politics as if it was a football game or a horse race. No interest in ordinary sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #210

They do, and it's offensive. azmom Jun 2015 #211

who is they? CreekDog Jun 2015 #213

WHY won't he 'have the ability to get to enough audiences to deal with Clinton's massive lead'? sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #197

Let's use Texas an an example... brooklynite Jun 2015 #202

And you support a system that locks out, because of MONEY, the people's right to learn about sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #203

I stand with the Unions and Bernie Autumn Jun 2015 #57

Me too. Enthusiast Jun 2015 #92

The Clinton fix is obviously in. Remember the "Super Delegates"? They will install Hillary. nt Romulox Jun 2015 #58

How, precisely, since they are <20% of the delegate count? whatthehey Jun 2015 #68

Ok ...so they don't need our votes. Great ...cause I wasn't really wanting to vote for Hillary. L0oniX Jun 2015 #173

You know what's really humorous about TPP, TPA, fast track, etc... Sancho Jun 2015 #59

Stop being sensible. It upsets people. whatthehey Jun 2015 #69

I agree. chev52 Jun 2015 #79

My neighbors (retired and they vote) have never heard of it. Sancho Jun 2015 #104

Try asking your neighbors about NAFTA and then tell them the TPP is another NAFTA. Or how jwirr Jun 2015 #111

I'll ask at the mailbox this afternoon...the old engineer is pretty sharp. Sancho Jun 2015 #115

Yes, I see what you are saying. Here in MN many of us get newsletters from the unions so we are jwirr Jun 2015 #116

Tell them no more country of origin labeling. Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #163

Good point - we are going to eat that stuff. jwirr Jun 2015 #166

We won't even buy our dogs treats made in China. Elmer S. E. Dump Jun 2015 #170

You just provided the old 'conventional wisdom' that has no application at all to today's sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #82

Repeat... Sancho Jun 2015 #96

Well it looks like it isn't Bernie who has the math problem, as was pointed out in the DK thread sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #121

It really doesn't matter how much the tax is or how much it generates... Sancho Jun 2015 #124

Where are you getting this from? Your retirement funds are NOT going to be taxed. I don't think sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #128

Our retirement fund would be taxed...according to our analysis. Sancho Jun 2015 #138

This is one example....183 Billion in Florida invested...most in retirement Sancho Jun 2015 #139

If you look at most state retirement funds, they are invested in Wall Street Sancho Jun 2015 #169

So Corps are risking your pension by gambling with it on Wall St. Like Enron. And you are not sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #177

Yes, most of us have fought battles with GOP Governor's on how to invest the funds (or not)!! Sancho Jun 2015 #178

My wife and I both teach... Sancho Jun 2015 #117

Show me Bernie's plan to tax retirement savings. Enthusiast Jun 2015 #93

Here's some "full of shit" for you...I'll accept your apology anytime... Sancho Jun 2015 #95

How about you just post BERNIE'S own plan? Rather than the disgruntled 'investor' types who don't sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #100

Those aren't disgruntled investors... Sancho Jun 2015 #107

There will certainly be no apology. Enthusiast Jun 2015 #102

Bernie has not real numbers...just a wild idea... Sancho Jun 2015 #105

I have responded, but you are correct. I have read the links and it is not Bernie who has the sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #130

Thank you, sabrina 1. I appreciate your work on our behalf. Enthusiast Jun 2015 #131

The feeling is mutual Enthusiast! sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #133

HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Jun 2015 #62

most voters don't care about tpp taught_me_patience Jun 2015 #70

Could you post some links to back up your opinion on this? Because following it from several years sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #72

Here are some quick ones: taught_me_patience Jun 2015 #73

I did ask you not to give me a Murdoch owned WSJ poll. That demographic is Wall St so naturally sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #75

Is Pew good enough for you? taught_me_patience Jun 2015 #76

K&R raouldukelives Jun 2015 #71

One question. zentrum Jun 2015 #77

Good point, they will not be felt for a while. But this is post Nafta where we know the effects of sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #78

Good points. zentrum Jun 2015 #123

I remain unconvinced. Sorry. MineralMan Jun 2015 #85

I remember the unconvinced in 2007. They were wrong, as it turned out. sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #97

Obama didn't win the primary based on the trade issue CreekDog Jun 2015 #122

Thanks to Youtube, everyone can see exactly what was said nationalize the fed Jun 2015 #180

Thank the gods for the internets! They are an instant cure for the amnesia that appears to sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #198

Well if passing TPP gets us President Sanders, it is worth it n2doc Jun 2015 #89

I like the way you think, Sabrina Utopian Leftist Jun 2015 #90

Thank you, UL, however I hope this does not pass, but I have no illusions about Corporate power sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #127

A question that I haven't been able to get a satisfactory answer to. staggerleem Jun 2015 #91

That's a good question, I do not know the answer. I doubt it, as it involves 11 other countries sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #103

BERNIE!!! AzDar Jun 2015 #94

The big red flag I see in all this is... Bubzer Jun 2015 #98

Libertarians kept thinking Ron Paul would become President of the United States, too. pogglethrope Jun 2015 #101

Liberals kept thinking Obama would become President of the United States also. He did. sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #129

Obama didn't get the nomination due to his position on the trade issue CreekDog Jun 2015 #147

That was a good take on an interesting angle to this, thanks for posting it (nt) Babel_17 Jun 2015 #106

I hope you're right chapdrum Jun 2015 #109

I do too, but Bernie will need overwhelming support even if he wins, they won't give up sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #189

As a Washington resident floriduck Jun 2015 #118

I love DeFazio, that would be a great choice. I will help you unseat the betrayers, wherever they sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #160

Well, I guess I better start saving up my money SusanCalvin Jun 2015 #119

Hillary will find a way to deceive voters into thinking she ALSO closeupready Jun 2015 #126

I love DU predictions wyldwolf Jun 2015 #136

Me too. 2008, same thing. We knew Obama could win, but were more or less dismissed then too. sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #148

i guess there was no error in my post because i asked you to point out where i was wrong CreekDog Jun 2015 #149

"You" knew Howard Dean, Bill Bradley, Ralph Nader, Dennis Kucinich, George McGovern, etc. could win. wyldwolf Jun 2015 #150

Wrong guess. I knew Kucinich would be attacked, after all he stood up to the Bush regime at a time sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #156

Absolutely not wrong. Obama won and you think that means you're a good political prognosticator. wyldwolf Jun 2015 #162

You're doing it again, you are telling me what I THINK. This is a very bad habit some people have on sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #181

Bernie isn't running against an unpopular president. He's running FROM a popular one. wyldwolf Jun 2015 #196

Bernie isn't running FOR the Corporations, he's running AGAINST THEM and against the MONEY sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #199

In 2008, Obama was the trade opponent in the primaries yet he lost those industrial states CreekDog Jun 2015 #153

Wrong: John Edwards was the darling of DU frazzled Jun 2015 #200

solid at 60% stonecutter357 Jun 2015 #145

Down from the over 80% we kept seeing here on a weekly basis. And way down in NH sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #235

Bernie is now Thespian2 Jun 2015 #157

WPF DCBob Jun 2015 #159

So you don't trust Bernie to win or to handle trade fairly? ucrdem Jun 2015 #161

Was this meant for ME? sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #206

This message was self-deleted by its author underthematrix Jun 2015 #168

Of course they'll pass, Corporate bought members of Congress will do their job for their sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #208

Wonder if TPP bucolic_frolic Jun 2015 #171

I was wondering about that also, or can the people sue due to a law sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #219

It's all written by lawyers bucolic_frolic Jun 2015 #229

That might be the best angle bucolic_frolic Jun 2015 #230

It definitely seem unconstitutional to me. And such a lawsuit might get exposure of just who sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #231

You've hit it, that strikes right to the core of the law bucolic_frolic Jun 2015 #232

I hope so, sabrina..will work tirelessly for him. K&R Jefferson23 Jun 2015 #172

I'm confused. If TPP passes and all of the Dems who supported it are ousted onenote Jun 2015 #174

That's too easy a question. Real Representatives of the PEOPLE. Anyone who votes for this sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #176

Let's be real...there won't be mass primaries of every Dem who voted for TPA. brooklynite Jun 2015 #195

Wow, again speaking for the average voter without any knowledge clearly, of what is important to sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #221

Speaking for myself: a person involved in political campaigns for 35 years brooklynite Jun 2015 #222

Here, first Union to endorse Sanders today: sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #225

We're talking about going after the TPA votes in the House and Senate. brooklynite Jun 2015 #226

The Unions promised to do that IF they were betrayed. The Teachers Union that just endorsed Sanders sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #228

K&R for an outstanding thread, sabrina... MrMickeysMom Jun 2015 #182

Regarding all the polls we are being presented with, you are correct to want to see some independent sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #186

I believe there IS a "tipping point"... sendero Jun 2015 #190

K & R LWolf Jun 2015 #192

I'll bet you can't find 10% of voters who upaloopa Jun 2015 #201

It's our job to inform them. We need an informed electorate azmom Jun 2015 #205

"Still a man hears what he wants to hear and upaloopa Jun 2015 #212

Framing is everything. azmom Jun 2015 #214

You can talk until you are blue to my wife upaloopa Jun 2015 #217

Wow, you sound pleased that Americans are deprived of information that is critical to their sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #220

Looks like Sanders has it in the bag. Not just in the bag, but landslide. nt. NCTraveler Jun 2015 #204

"... the entire labor force" ? Bit of an exaggeration, yes? Myrina Jun 2015 #216

Every Union in the country opposed the TPP. They represent the labor force in this country. sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #227

Like Phoenix rising from the ashes. nt Zorra Jun 2015 #218

Bookmarking. Rex Jun 2015 #223

They would not have if it were not for the betrayers, Third Way Dems, Debbie Wasserman of course sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #237

Unconstitutional bucolic_frolic Jun 2015 #233

Thank you for adding that here. I agree. Now what are we going to do about it? Btw, see the update, sabrina 1 Jun 2015 #234

Constitutional Scholars bucolic_frolic Jun 2015 #236