Whip count on Iran nuclear deal indicates 50% chance Congress will completely kill the deal [View all]

[geek tragedy]

(note: this focuses on the Senate. If the Senate falls, presumably the House will be easier for the Republicans due to their huge majority there).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/14/whip-count-where-the-senate-stands-on-the-iran-deal/

Long story short:

58 Senators, including 'Democrats' like Chuck Schumer, are already likely to vote to override Obama's veto, kill the Iran nuclear deal, and pave the way to a regional war with Iran.

Only 26 Senators are leaning towards voting to sustain Obama's veto.

16 remain undecided. But, one of those is a Republican, (Flake-AZ) who will NOT be the only Republican to vote with Obama. So count him as a 'no' and the number becomes 59 votes for war with Iran.

With 15 remaining. Team Diplomacy needs to get at least 8 of those undecideds to vote for the deal.

The undecideds/unknown:

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.): "The stakes are high, and the details of this deal matter."

Sen Cory Booker (D-N.J.): "I will hold this deal to a very high standard and in reaching any conclusion," he said.

Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.): "I will review the details of this agreement promptly, and I will only support it if this deal prevents every Iranian pathway to develop a nuclear weapons capability."

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.): "There's a lot of questions," he said, adding "I would have strongly preferred an agreement where Iran did not need to do any enrichment," on NPR on July 14.

Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.): In May, he said: "A nuclear-armed Iran would be one of the most serious threats to our national security interests, and I have long-supported diplomatic efforts, including the ongoing negotiations and sanctions, to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon," and today he is undecided on the Iran deal.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.): "First thing is to not tear down this agreement before the ink is even dry, before we even read it. Congress has a role now, by law, and it's to thoroughly scrutinize the details of the agreement."

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.): "“I will review this agreement with the utmost attention to detail, given the incredible importance of getting an agreement of this magnitude right."

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.): She's approved tough sanctions on Iran in 2012 but has been quiet on the deal so far. On July 23 she told Politico: "It’s a really busy time around here and people are trying to do other things. And so if you don’t have to decide in the next two days, then people will take their time."

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.): The moderate Democrat was considering co-sponsoring the Iran review bill but ended up not for fear of scuttling the negotiations. "I’m making sure I’m going to make the right decision, not when I’m going to make it," she told Politico.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.): Heitkamp voted for the Iran review bill Congress passed in May, saying: "Iran cannot receive relief from sanctions until it shows it is taking verifiable steps to prevent the development of a nuclear weapon within its borders." She hasn't commented on the deal.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.): She's been supportive of the diplomatic negotiations but also wary of a deal: "There are so many unanswered questions on the military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program," she said in May.

Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.)

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.): The Democratic leader told Politico it "would take us all a while" to decide.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.)

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.): "As these negotiations move forward, I will monitor them closely to ensure that our national security is protected," he said in May. He told Politico July 23: "We’re going to go to some outside folks too, I don’t just want to hear from the administration."

Klobuchar, Murray and Cantwell will probably vote with the President.

Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly will probably vote with the Republicans and AIPAC.

So,

Bennet
Booker
Cardin
Coons
McCaskill
Mikulski
Nelson
Warner
Stabenow

hold the key. The President will need to hold onto 5 of those 9 to save the nuclear deal.

Schumer--the presumed next leader of Senate Democrats, voting against the President is going to make this a very close call.