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pnwmom

(110,185 posts)

16. This poll sampled 681 Democrats and 710 Rethugs. So, surprise, surprise, they favored Bush.

Reply to Laura PourMeADrink (Original post)

Thu Jul 30, 2015, 10:04 PM

Jul 2015

And the result was a statistical TIE, even though the sample skewed toward Rethugs.

No one should take a Quinnipiac poll seriously. They seem to have a pattern of oversampling for Rethugs. Does anyone seriously think there are more R's than D's in the general population now?

Also, in polls like this one candidate is never really 1 percent ahead of another -- because any result within the margin of error (which in this case is 2.4 points) is a statistical TIE. The polls can't accurately predict a winner when the results are within the margin of error.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-surge-jeb-bush-slump-2016-poll-120795.html#ixzz3hR1NYQGj

The poll of 1,644 self-identified registered voters carries an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. Subsamples of 681 Democrats and 710 Republicans have margins of error of plus or minus 3.8 and 3.7 percentage points, respectively.

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Shit. Jeb beats Hillary in a match up of all voters [View all] Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 OP

no experienced politician is beloved virtualobserver Jul 2015 #1

Not what Hillary supporters have been tellin us about the polls for months now, i.e., how Hillary beats all comers. InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2015 #30

and not what Bernie supporters have been telling us either, because bush wins by 5 points over still_one Jul 2015 #35

Yes, would be interesting to see. Maybe we will. InAbLuEsTaTe Jul 2015 #43

I don't think we will though. The problem is I think this poll is using the model that assumes still_one Jul 2015 #46

Nope-- Bernie beats Bush, and all other Republicans Art_from_Ark Jul 2015 #57

That is a CNN Poll NOT the quinnipiac poll, which is what this thread is about. You are clever to still_one Jul 2015 #69

In other words, one poll shows Bernie losing Art_from_Ark Jul 2015 #75

I think the latest poll, which is the quinnipac poll is an outlier. Both Hillary and Bernie lose in still_one Jul 2015 #79

Yes, there is NO way a real poll where repubs arent oversampled does Hillary AllFieldsRequired Jul 2015 #126

Because Independents are a solid minority VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #66

Independents are what have been determining elections. Most republicans do not vote for Democrats, still_one Jul 2015 #71

What????? VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #73

You don't think independents are significant? They make or break elections. The stats you quote still_one Jul 2015 #77

All but 10% of "independents" consistently vote along party lines to almost the same degree seaglass Jul 2015 #97

OK, I will take yours and VanillaRhapsody's assessment that most independents are not truly independents. However, still_one Jul 2015 #111

Bernie beats all three top Republicans in the latest national poll. sabrina 1 Jul 2015 #74

THAT IS NOT THE LATEST POLL, That is from July 26, 2010. The poll in THIS THREAD is from July 30th still_one Jul 2015 #78

Q seems to be the only poll with the Republicans at any kind of advantage for next year's race. Proud Liberal Dem Jul 2015 #87

Long road to go but the fact that anyone would Juicy_Bellows Jul 2015 #2

I understand that ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #3

And probably under sampled young people csziggy Jul 2015 #8

They polled 681 Dems and 710 Rethugs and even then got a result well within the margin of error. n/t pnwmom Jul 2015 #21

Really.. thanks for that, 1StrongBlackMan. And, is Quinnipiac even one of those trusted Cha Jul 2015 #55

Seems trustworthy enough when it puts Clinton ahead of Sanders. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #56

So pointing out flaws ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #108

it's silly to pretend it's "flawed" only when it gives you what you don't want to hear... Scootaloo Jul 2015 #118

Okay ... Now, THAT is silly ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #120

similar flaws exist in other polls which I have seen hearty support for. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #121

Okay and thank you for the "advice" ... I will treasure it. n/t 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #124

Actually you should. it's a good way to maintain sanity during primary season. Scootaloo Jul 2015 #125

I do ... I, really do! ... Now, if only you would ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #127

Augh, my one true weakness! Improper use of commas and ellipses! Scootaloo Jul 2015 #129

I think you got the drift ... but feel free to edit it ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #130

Yes ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #110

Since you are an expert in polling former9thward Jul 2015 #59

I do not claim polling expertise; however, I have ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #106

Depends on turnout of course madville Jul 2015 #98

Per 1 person's statement? hahahahaha, don't make me laugh. We are months away from Election day trueblue2007 Jul 2015 #4

WTF is right! Kath1 Jul 2015 #5

The poll sampled 681 Dems, who liked Hillary, and 710 Rethugs, who liked Bush. pnwmom Jul 2015 #23

Then they are using the same model they used in 2012, assuming that more republican will show up still_one Jul 2015 #27

And it makes no sense. Adrahil Jul 2015 #96

Couple that with the under-representation of, both, Affrican-American and Hispanic voters ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #109

And that is a very good question, pnwmom, Kath1 Jul 2015 #32

Ugh...thanks for being an actual responder vs. the same ole same ole - "it's too Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 #39

I agree. Kath1 Jul 2015 #49

It isn't a bad sign when a sample containing more Rethugs than Dems pnwmom Jul 2015 #51

And, again, it isn't a bad sign when ... 1StrongBlackMan Jul 2015 #115

Don't panic.... The sample in that poll was really odd. Adrahil Jul 2015 #6

Since you are an expert in polling former9thward Jul 2015 #60

How about numbers that acurately depicts the VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #67

Canada is about to have a national election. The campaign season will be an astonishing 10 weeks long Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #7

Are they going to give those asshole Conservatives the boot? Armstead Jul 2015 #19

Money can't turn an election campaign that's three months long, Long enough to get excited. Monk06 Jul 2015 #65

Q is the only survey with these numbers. They're an outlier. Adenoid_Hynkel Jul 2015 #9

This isn't the first time their sample has included more Rethugs than Dems, pnwmom Jul 2015 #24

Actually considering only a 1 point difference with an over sampling of republicans bodes quite well still_one Jul 2015 #38

That's what I thought. n/t pnwmom Jul 2015 #50

Not surprised at all treestar Jul 2015 #83

Hmmm. "Trump beats all GOP candidates (including Jeb), but misterhighwasted Jul 2015 #10

Quinnipac... Outlier... Just like swing state polls Godhumor Jul 2015 #11

The extreme left on DU and elsewhere has spent woolldog Jul 2015 #12

Yes of course, Sanders is totally to blame for Jeb out-polling Hillary 99th_Monkey Jul 2015 #15

Lol, the Hillary crowd crack me up! Nt Logical Jul 2015 #36

well YOU crack me up. trueblue2007 Jul 2015 #92

Quit blaming bernie for her problems then. nt Logical Jul 2015 #94

Protip: Corporate Dems usually wait until their corporate candidate loses to blame the left. Marr Jul 2015 #22

Obama withstood Hillary tag-team hammering him with John McCain 3 months after AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #28

Obama is a much better woolldog Jul 2015 #37

Yes he was, and it's Bernie that's caught fire this time. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #42

I'm sorry but Americans woolldog Jul 2015 #114

That's a rather subjective analysis. AtomicKitten Jul 2015 #117

NOBODY is "our only hope to win". John Poet Jul 2015 #80

Nobody? Not even Obi Wan? Capt. Obvious Jul 2015 #93

Oh fuck me tkmorris Jul 2015 #31

extreme left? CountAllVotes Jul 2015 #33

Well...can not help, for sure. She's got no enthusiasm behind her. nt Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 #40

And that is someone else's fault that she's got no enthusiasm behind her? Ms. Toad Jul 2015 #103

Doesn't matter whose fault it is. woolldog Jul 2015 #119

Which is why you started this sub-thread blaming the "extreme left on DU" Ms. Toad Jul 2015 #135

Exactly WD ! Laura PourMeADrink Aug 2015 #149

The poll over sampled republicans. What is significant, even with that there is only a 1 point gap still_one Jul 2015 #45

Oh, yes. The "extreme left" -- those who don't like Repub-lite. How dare they! Arugula Latte Jul 2015 #48

You're funny. Ok - I'll keep it up. 840high Jul 2015 #53

^^^This^^^^ VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #68

Cool story, bro RandiFan1290 Jul 2015 #82

Yeah, that's the ticket deutsey Jul 2015 #89

LOL! Extreme left! TransitJohn Jul 2015 #91

Keep up what you're doing, and we'll be doomed no matter who wins. FiveGoodMen Jul 2015 #133

Hillary has a viable challenger Aerows Jul 2015 #13

Jesus. It's one point. WorseBeforeBetter Jul 2015 #14

Jesus. No Dem should be behind Jeb Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 #41

The poll was conducted with people who actually vote towards a specific party. xmas74 Jul 2015 #61

It is???? VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #70

It is now estimated that 43 percent xmas74 Jul 2015 #107

not buying this "estimate" VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #132

Affiliating with an actual party makes us the outliers. xmas74 Jul 2015 #134

Bernie must be doing something wrong if you think its JUST name VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #136

Why are you yelling at me? xmas74 Jul 2015 #137

Then why the tired ass "name recognition" meme? VanillaRhapsody Jul 2015 #139

Because I don't have a problem with name recognition. xmas74 Jul 2015 #140

That is NOT what is meant when that VanillaRhapsody Aug 2015 #141

Ok, you've lost me here. xmas74 Aug 2015 #142

Then why use terms that are used to denigrate her? VanillaRhapsody Aug 2015 #143

Name recognition? xmas74 Aug 2015 #144

Let me introduce you to Democratic Underground VanillaRhapsody Aug 2015 #145

I've been here since 2004, no intro needed. xmas74 Aug 2015 #146

This poll sampled 681 Democrats and 710 Rethugs. So, surprise, surprise, they favored Bush. pnwmom Jul 2015 #16

Typical DU response. former9thward Jul 2015 #62

Fortunately, most DUers aren't that gullible. They know how to dig into the fine print. pnwmom Jul 2015 #72

NO, but is worth noting that this firm is an outlier Adenoid_Hynkel Jul 2015 #76

Normally, I'd agree... but the sample on this one is odd. Adrahil Jul 2015 #95

It is still far too early to take any polling seriously. SheilaT Jul 2015 #17

that's called a statistical tie, its MoE. Benie actually loses outside the MoE ericson00 Jul 2015 #18

And they included more Rethugs than Dems in their poll. So naturally it tilted toward Bush. n/t pnwmom Jul 2015 #20

Many USA people that are not Democratic party members PufPuf23 Jul 2015 #25

That's not even the issue with the poll. xmas74 Jul 2015 #63

42-41, and, margin of error is? what, +/-3%? Spider Jerusalem Jul 2015 #26

Who the fuck cares. It's fucking 15 months until the election! longship Jul 2015 #29

+1000 CountAllVotes Jul 2015 #34

How about you take a rest from being so fucking condescending. Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 #44

How about relaxing for a while... longship Jul 2015 #47

ok, I am relaxed :) Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 #105

Maybe you should pour yourself a drink and think about why a poll pnwmom Jul 2015 #52

I think it is so true here - and on the other side as well - that whenever a poll Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 #100

I check the survey methodology with any seemingly important poll pnwmom Jul 2015 #113

point taken ! Probably should have qualified with "close" or "neck in neck". I totally Laura PourMeADrink Jul 2015 #116

Yes. I think we continue to have a very close split between the parties and we'll have to pnwmom Jul 2015 #122

Message auto-removed Name removed Jul 2015 #54

The election is fifteen months out xmas74 Jul 2015 #64

Ugh, we can't afford four more years of the BFEE!!!!! Initech Jul 2015 #58

That's a statistical tie--well within the MOE. NT tblue37 Jul 2015 #81

Easy! Take a lungful. oldandhappy Jul 2015 #84

People who have been basing their entire political outlook on polls already for two years or more TheKentuckian Jul 2015 #85

Both of them customerserviceguy Jul 2015 #86

No wonder we are so fucked up, but I don't believe it. lonestarnot Jul 2015 #88

Anecdotally, a lot of people 'don't like Hillary' TransitJohn Jul 2015 #90

IF (BIG if) Hillary is the nominee DFW Jul 2015 #99

It's because of punks like this twerp libodem Jul 2015 #101

when 'lesser of the evils' is your message HFRN Jul 2015 #102

Clinton or Bush...either way, the money-men win. nt Romulox Jul 2015 #104

Fortunately the Republican electorate mostly hates him, particularly the far right wing of the GOP. stevenleser Jul 2015 #112

Sure you are upset about this (BS) poll from Quinnipiac. Dawson Leery Jul 2015 #123

My guess is that Jeb would lose Florida to Hillary HockeyMom Jul 2015 #128

Now that is how any Dem will win Florida. xmas74 Jul 2015 #138

Given the irresponsible nature of our media and the confused, anxious state of our citizenry, MBS Jul 2015 #131

But it's not even true. Even though the polled more Rethugs than Dems -- which no one pnwmom Aug 2015 #147

Great to know, but MBS Aug 2015 #148

You are absolutely right. We will have to fight as hard as we can for a huge turnout pnwmom Aug 2015 #151

This is no surprise - TBF Aug 2015 #150