What if we beat the rest of the Axis powers like we did, but lost to Japan?

[Buzz cook]

17. If China had fallen before Pear Harbor

Both National and Communist that is and a Pax Japanica had ruled North East Asia and Japan had established a non-aggression pact with the Soviets, then that would have been a start to a negotiated peace with the Allies.
Victory would have needed abandonment of the attack on Pear Harbor and American entrance into the war at a later date or only against Germany at first.

The Japanese Southern strategy could have by passed the Philippines AND British Asia scooping up only European colonies owned by countries already under German control or independent ones such as Thailand.

Given enough time to build an industrial base and given use of Chinese conscripts the Japanese would have a formidable empire which might have stood up to allied aggression.