What most people don't understand about the TPP. [View all]

[MineralMan]

The United States cannot dictate terms in such a multi-national negotiation and agreement. There are 12 nations involved. Individual nations are all insisting that provisions designed to benefit those nations be included. The negotiations are all about give and take. Each nation has specific things it wants and has the power to insist on those things.

Trade-offs are part and parcel of all such multi-national trade agreements. The US has considerable clout, but so does Japan and Canada. So do all the other nations, but to a lesser degree. For the TPP to become finalized, multiple issues get resolved through compromise. Sovereign nations are all insistent that their point of view and issues beneficial to them be included. They use their power of rejection to influence the other nations involved. Since nobody except the negotiating parties have seen the sections that have been finalized, it's impossible to know what compromises have taken place already or what the underlying reasons for them were.

One thing is certain, though: No individual nation can dictate language in these agreements. It all has to be agreed to by the other nations. That is why TPA or the fast track authority is necessary. Without it, legislative bodies will attempt to add and subtract portions of the agreement. Congress, for example, which is controlled by Republicans, would inject countless amendments to an agreement, mostly to brag about to individual member's supporters. Each of those would have to be accepted by the other participating nations. That is an impossibility, since Congress is a collective idiot, and will attempt to force irrelevant issues into the agreement. That's why the TPA passed. It's essential that the negotiators have a free hand at drafting a final agreement. Everyone in Congress knows that.

The final version of the TPP will be extraordinarily complex, and almost impenetrable by people who do not have an extensive knowledge of and experience in international trade. Pundits, politicians and amateur analysts will seriously misinterpret the language of just about everything in the agreement. That process has already begun with leaked portions of drafts. Most of the opinions are heavily influenced by the interpreters' own biases.

Trade agreements are essential to balance the interests and desires of participating nations. They must, by definition, be compromised documents, since every nation has its own interests as the top priorities. The language used in such documents is always full of hedged statements and flexible rules. That's inevitable. There has never been a clean, clear international trade agreement. The language is intentionally vague and flexible.

Here in the US, analysts will interpret the TPP documents according to their own biases. They will read into every section and clause their own interpretations, without really considering how the language in them came to be during the negotiations. Pundits will focus on particular issues to expand their own egotistical viewpoints. Political figures will interpret them to suit their understanding of their constituencies. Economists will look at the language in their own unique ways. Amateurs will not understand much of it and will rely on the opinions of those people who reflect their own biases. Nobody except the actual negotiators will truly understand the documents and why they read as they do.

In the end, the TPP, like most multi-national trade agreements will eventually be approved and go into force, warts and all. In the end, it will influence trade and other issues to some degree, but each individual nation will use the hedges built into the language to its own benefit. The result will be improvements in some areas, despite problems in others. Finally, trade will continue, things like intellectual property rights will continue to be abused, and rules about human rights issues will be followed, but only to the extent that is convenient for each nation.

The TPP will be approved by Congress. It will go into effect. Everyone should know that. It will be followed to some degree, and ignored to some larger degree. If the overall effect is positive, it will do some good. But it will be approved, because such agreements are essential to have some sort of regulation for international trade.

The same thing applies to all other multi-national trade agreements under consideration. The final draft of these things has taken years to complete. They will be approved and trade will continue, more or less regulated by the agreements, except when that regulation is inconvenient for one or more of the nations that are party to the agreement. Then, the hedged language will allow considerable flexibility, despite disputes.

That's why the TPP isn't going to really be an issue in the 2016 elections. It will be approved and go into force, regardless of the outcome of the elections in the United States. It's a way bigger thing than one nation can dictate. It goes beyond the politics of any single nation.

I await the inevitable attacks on this point of view.