If it's Clinton v. Bush in 2016, predict turnout

[1StrongBlackMan]

12. I assume you are referencing Democratic turn-out ...

because the republicans turn-out their base, largely because, the moment they settle on a nominee (immediately after their convention, or before) ... the gop, AND THEIR ACTIVISTS, stop shooting at the party and the nominee.

Whereas, Democrats ... not so much.

No! Let me be more accurate ... the RIGHT, AND THEIR ACTIVISTS, stop shooting at the gop and the gop's nominee; whereas, the left ... not EVER!

So, to answer your question, I would say ... It all depends on how the Left responds to HRC being the Democratic nominee. If the activists on the Left maintain their energy/engagement in the face of CLEAR partisan (i.e., Democratic/republican) differences, we can have (President) Obama style turn-outs.

If on the other hand (and the more likely scenario) activists on the Left, ignore the clear Democratic/republican differences, and continue shooting at the Democratic Party and it's nominee, we can expect off year turn out, or worse.