I Have Yet To Hear A Good Reason Why Iran Would Risk Its Own Destruction By Launching Nukes

[Whiskeytide]

4. That's a valid analysis...

... But I suppose you would also have to factor in the prospect of retaliation by Israel's allies - like the US. I could see fanatics calculating that they could take out Israel before Israel could launch, but there would still be the threat of counter annihilation even if they accomplished that.

The real concern is that there might be people with access to the weapons who, due to religious conviction, don't really care about the prospects of a counter launch, and might even welcome it. MAD only works if both sides want to survive. (And I understand the overwhelming majority of Iranians don't think like that - but it's still a legit risk).

Eventually, just because, numerous middle eastern counties will have them, and the lack of stability in their governments means that, in time, someone will use them. There is no doubt in my mind what ISIL would do if they acquired one.