Worse than '97-98?! New El Niņo growing into monster

[JayhawkSD]

17. Predictions may be totally fubar.

For one thing the warmth of North Pacific is unprecedented and could throw normal El Nino pattern completely out of whack. Will those abnormally high temps in the north persist? Who knows? If they do, what effect will they have on the storm track? Who knows, but it could be profound.

There is also a persistent barometric high pressure off the California coast which is unprecedended and has been affecting the storm track all summer, sending some storms further south than normal and blocking others. Will that high pressure persist into El Nino season? Who knows. If it does, what effect will it have on the El Nino effect? Who knows.

So even assuming that the "monster El Nino" develops as predicted, it may not behave as everyone is gleefully predicting it will behave. I have watched the little old lady two houses down spreading tarps on her hillside for several years when everyone was screaming "El Nino is coming, El Nino is coming" after the 97-98 event caused hillsides to collapse in our neighborhood, only to watch rainfall be below normal for the year.

The only thing predictable about El Nino is its unpredictability.