General Discussion

Zanzoobar

(894 posts)

52. It's stupendously simple

Sun May 20, 2012, 11:14 PM

May 2012

I will bet you that an apple will cost 5 bucks next year.

Will you take the bet?

If you take the bet, that is what the future price of an apple is next year.

It has very little to do with what an apple will be priced at next year.

That is how the market values everything. That is what is reported. The true number is not reported until the day the bet is settled, which is generally far from the future bet originally made. Thus, the people who made the original bets may sell their positions based on daily fluctuations, or again, future projections.

From there it's a formulaic matter to leverage massive bets against future prices based on technical indicators. Often, those technical indicators are directly derived from the ability of a massive financial institution to manipulate the bid and ask using their specialists, or market makers.

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Wait, the Derivatives market is worth $1,200 TRILLION dollars??? [View all] Zalatix May 2012 OP

Clearly, the Have-Mores are having a heyday. 99th_Monkey May 2012 #1

Economics class won't do it for ya jmowreader May 2012 #2

So we've created some kind of financial chimera whose DNA we can't even decode? Zalatix May 2012 #3

Precisely jmowreader May 2012 #30

Yep, I have a friend with a masters in math from MIT. He sat down and explained them to me stevenleser May 2012 #33

Banned? Oh no don't do that, just because we silly mortals cannot understand it. Zalatix May 2012 #34

Wendy Gramm TahitiNut May 2012 #4

Ding, Ding, Ding! salin May 2012 #8

"Almost"? sendero May 2012 #12

Not there yet, but have a good credit union salin May 2012 #28

"...money isn't earning much of anything." unkachuck May 2012 #51

What do you mean "no one knows what the hell they are"? FarCenter May 2012 #19

Pricey read that first one. laundry_queen May 2012 #27

Okay, Sayajit Das knows what the hell they are jmowreader May 2012 #31

That is a powerful metaphor, I hope you will consider building an OP coalition_unwilling May 2012 #43

Nor were the people whose houses were flattened... jmowreader May 2012 #50

4700 PAGES!!! That's 3x as long as War and Peace!!! Zalatix May 2012 #35

According to Malcolm Gladwell, it takes 10,000 hours to master something FarCenter May 2012 #39

Actually, the CFTC does not have regulatory authority over many of the coalition_unwilling May 2012 #42

Yes, I'd like to see the derivitives market regulated by the Nevada Gaming Commission Jack Rabbit May 2012 #48

There's a more important NCG rule jmowreader May 2012 #49

You're right. That is more important. Jack Rabbit May 2012 #54

Yup, and it needs to be declared void for the fraud that it is. Waiting For Everyman May 2012 #5

Indeed. This is nothing more than Monopoly money. hifiguy May 2012 #22

The key here is to understand that "notional value" isn't real. FBaggins May 2012 #6

Not only that.. sendero May 2012 #13

That's certainly correct. FBaggins May 2012 #15

I'll have to disagree . sendero May 2012 #16

There are two problems actually. Your problem is one of them, in that coalition_unwilling May 2012 #44

Magic Economics. Nice work if you can get it. TrollBuster9090 May 2012 #7

Ah, I see. I wasn't getting it because it's not even real. Zalatix May 2012 #9

The funny thing is, every empire of note, MadHound May 2012 #10

Rome is a bad example. DetlefK May 2012 #14

and the main chunk of money funding this empire is pillage magical thyme May 2012 #26

Rome is a bad example there too bhikkhu May 2012 #32

At least the Roman empire created some great art and philosophy that coalition_unwilling May 2012 #45

that sounds vaguely similar to onethatcares May 2012 #38

+1 Blue_Tires May 2012 #36

What's the difference between this and counterfeiting money? Please explain! DetlefK May 2012 #11

You are conflating currency (a physical form that money takes) and money (the coalition_unwilling May 2012 #46

Warren Buffett was sounding the alarm on derivatives way back in 2002 when PA Democrat May 2012 #17

No. Notional is not "worth" econoclast May 2012 #18

The other reason that the total notional is so high is that it is cumulative FarCenter May 2012 #20

Only if you think tomorrow's Powerball drawing is worth 2 Quadrillion dmallind May 2012 #21

Your analogy doesn't work because they divide the winnings for Powerball Taitertots May 2012 #25

isn't that 1.2 gazillion? nt Javaman May 2012 #23

Actually, it might be a Brazillion. nt eppur_se_muova May 2012 #24

Might as well be Triskellian Quatloons aint_no_life_nowhere May 2012 #29

Quick... before this thread goes south... Bigmack May 2012 #37

It will fall when it can't grow any more. bemildred May 2012 #40

Here, this might do it: bemildred May 2012 #41

Here's a good example from real life: AIG sold credit default swaps against coalition_unwilling May 2012 #47

It's stupendously simple Zanzoobar May 2012 #52

I think it's a very big deal indeed. pa28 May 2012 #53